Through the month of July, I penned the top fantasy values at each position, focusing on players whose average draft position (ADP) undersells their projected rankings. That series feaatured stars like Jahmyr Gibbs, Josh Allen and Brock Bowers, alongside deeper pulls such as rookie receiver KC Concepcion and Chigoziem Okonkwo.
There still are a handful of players the fantasy community is undervaluing and a whole slew of guys it's overvaluing -- names that have been improperly inflated or deflated by recency bias, veterans who might be losing their luster and unheralded youngsters with unrealized upside.
Today, I'm spotlighting those players and, perhaps, changing the narrative a bit. Here are five overvalued and five undervalued players to consider ahead of your fantasy football drafts.
NOTE: This article series follows a point per reception (PPR) scoring format and average draft position (ADP) is via ESPN.
OVERVALUED
Average draft position: Round 2 (RB8)
The rookie's fantasy outlook is complicated. I love him as a prospect and I love his draft capital. Running backs drafted in the top five are typically excellent for fantasy, but those guys (see: Saquon Barkley, Ezekiel Elliott) usually succeed on the back of absurd bell-cow volume and/or a resurgence from their respective teams.
Arizona's a little too unpredictable. Love's touch count could be bogged down by the crowded RB room, which includes veterans Tyler Allgeier, James Conner and Trey Benson. The third overall pick will still be the clear RB1 -- despite recent curious comments from OC Nathaniel Hackett -- but that's a lot of legitimate competition. Trusting the Cardinals is hard with a bridge quarterback, a new coaching staff and subpar offensive line. They're a frontrunner for the top overall draft pick in 2027, and that doesn't bode well for their new, young running back. I see Love as fringe RB1, a round or two behind his current ADP.
Average draft position: Round 3 (WR12)
Wilson always sounds like a good idea in fantasy. The 2022 first-round pick has flashed plenty of talent and been the only viable target in New York for most of his career. However, he's finished outside the top 20 PPR wideouts in three of his four seasons. He was on a solid pace last year, but a knee injury ended his season after seven games. This offseason, the Jets spent two of their three first-round picks on pass catchers, TE Kenyon Sadiq and WR Omar Cooper Jr.
Wilson has made his hay on volume. He's sixth in the NFL with 528 targets since 2022. But among 73 receivers with 200-plus targets in that span, he ranks 70th in fantasy points per target. Translation? Legitimate competition for targets in New York could mean legitimate concerns for Wilson's fantasy outlook. In the third round, I'm passing for more reliable options.
Average draft position: Rounds 4-5 (QB5)
From a passing perspective, Hurts had a decent 2025, tossing a career-high 25 touchdowns and topping 3,000 yards for the fourth time in five seasons as the starter. However, he dropped to just 421 yards and eight touchdowns rushing, both fewest since taking the helm in 2021. Specifically, with Jason Kelce gone and the tush push somewhat neutered, Hurts scored just five TDs from inside the 3-yard line last season, fewest as the starter and six fewer than he had in both 2023 and 2024 (11). As a result, he finished as the QB8 in fantasy, well below the elite tier he'd previously called home.
With A.J. Brown's departure and a(nother) first-time offensive coordinator in Sean Mannion, it's tough to see Hurts' passing numbers really improving. And with the Eagles lacking their former dominance at the goal line, the QB5 price tag in the fifth round is simply too high.
Average draft position: Rounds 6-7 (RB24)
With his move from Detroit to Houston -- and his escape from the shadow of Jahmyr Gibbs -- a lot of fantasy managers are hopping aboard the David Montgomery RB1 train. And while it's true that Montgomery might see more touches in 2026 than he did in 2025, the hype has gone further than it should on the 29-year-old running back.
Houston's recent track record with veteran RB pickups is unencouraging. Joe Mixon finished as the RB17 in 2024, but otherwise, it's been a wasteland: Nick Chubb, David Johnson, Mark Ingram, etc. Moreover, Montgomery is right at the edge of where historical data has set the "running back cliff" -- around 28 to 29 years old and 1,500 career carries. It's unlikely he hits double-digit touchdowns as he often did with the high-scoring Lions, and if the efficiency drops off as well, it's going to be very tough to return value on a sixth-round ADP.
Average draft position: Round 9 (TE9)
Last season, Goedert posted a career-high 60 receptions and 11 touchdowns to finish as the TE7 in fantasy. He hit that TD mark by scoring once every 7.5 targets, an incredibly high mark for a tight end and more than twice as often as his previous career rate. Touchdowns are unpredictable in the NFL, and that kind of outlier production is almost always followed by regression.
After seven seasons of consistently middling fantasy output, I'm not buying into a repeat performance from the 31-year-old. A.J. Brown is gone, but much of his target share was preemptively backfilled by rookie receiver Makai Lemon, and I just expressed my feelings on Jalen Hurts. Goedert should finish somewhere in the top 15 at his position, but it doesn't make sense to draft him ahead of guys like Tucker Kraft, Jake Ferguson and Mark Andrews in the heart of the tight end dead zone of fantasy drafts.
UNDERVALUED
Average draft position: Round 9 (TE11)
At this time last year, I labeled Ferguson as one of my favorite fantasy comeback targets, and he responded with 82 catches, 600 yards, eight touchdowns and a TE5 finish in 2025. That was with George Pickens breaking out to give Dallas one of the top wide receiver duos in the league. Moreover, had Ferguson not suffered a calf injury on Christmas Day -- leaving him with two catches over the last two games of the season -- he realistically could have finished as the TE3 overall.
Somehow, between then and now, Ferguson has ended up as the TE11. Sure, he doesn't have the name value of George Kittle or Sam LaPorta, or the exciting theoretical upside of Harold Fannin Jr. or Colston Loveland. He did finish ahead of all those guys last year, and nothing has really changed over the offseason. I love Ferguson as a safe, solid TE1 later in drafts.
Average draft position: Round 9 (WR38)
The Jaguars WR room is full of question marks, but Washington isn't one of them. The 24-year-old had a quiet start to his career before breaking out last season when Travis Hunter got injured. From Week 7 on, Washington was the WR17 with 14.4 fantasy points per game, outpacing Brian Thomas Jr. and Jakobi Meyers in every relevant fantasy category in that span.
Among 71 wideouts with at least 300 routes run in 2025, Washington ranked 14th in yards per route run (2.1) and cracked an even shorter list of 12 receivers to average 12-plus air yards per target and maintain at least a 60% catch rate. In other words, he's legit. Thomas could bounce back, Meyers will get his targets and Hunter should rotate in, but I think Washington ends up being Jacksonville's top fantasy WR asset and a strong draft value.
Average draft position: Round 4 (WR19)
Nabers' ADP is confounding considering he's expected to avoid the PUP list. Since going sixth overall to the Giants in 2024, Nabers has averaged 18.24 fantasy points per game, sixth among wide receivers. He's seen at least seven targets in every game he's finished and hit double-digit fantasy points in 16 of 18 full contests he's played.
Even if Nabers starts the season slow, his fantasy impact down the stretch is being grossly undervalued. When healthy, Nabers is a locked-and-loaded PPR WR1 with No. 1 overall upside. If necessary, you can sub in a flex player -- like Parker Washington -- in September, but by midseason, Nabers' ADP is going to be one of the great mysteries of the 2026 fantasy season.
Average draft position: Round 10 (RB31)
Just because Stevenson might not be as exciting as teammate TreVeyon Henderson, it doesn't mean he should be pegged to get drafted in the double-digit rounds, more than 40 picks after Henderson. Both backs were spotty when adjusting to Josh McDaniels' offense early in 2025, and Stevenson missed a few games in November. But after retaking his role as the starter in Week 13, Stevenson was excellent. He averaged a monster 17.1 fantasy points and 96.3 scrimmage yards per game over the eight remaining contests, including the postseason.
Henderson should rebound from a poor playoff run, but I don't expect him to run away with New England's RB1 role. Stevenson should still see 200 touches, crack 1,000 yards and threaten for double-digit touchdowns. I see Stevenson as a David Montgomery-type from early in Jahmyr Gibbs' career: a solid RB2 with week-to-week RB1 upside, which is far more valuable than his draft costs suggests.
Average draft position: Round 4 (WR17)
After two years of consistent improvement, Flowers finished sixth in receiving yards and seventh in fantasy points among wide receivers in 2025. He demonstrated elite efficiency with 2.5 yards per route run, finishing behind only Puka Nacua and Jaxon Smith-Njigba among wideouts with at least 300 routes run. That's elite.
Flowers hasn't scored a ton of touchdowns, so there's room for a massive jump in this new offense. Last season under OC Todd Monken, the Ravens targeted wide receivers on just 42.9 percent of red zone passes (eighth-fewest), and Lamar Jackson had an uncharacteristically unproductive year. With new OC Declan Doyle in place, the path is clear. As I see it, Flowers has a high-end WR2 floor, high-end WR1 ceiling and is being wildly undervalued in the fourth round. He should be a huge target for drafters in (or before) that range.
