NFL playoff picture: Postseason probabilities entering Week 14 of the 2025 season

Entering Week 14 of the 2025 NFL regular season, Ali Bhanpuri, with major assists from Special Projects Lead Tom Blair and Manager of NFL Research Jack Andrade, digs into the Next Gen Stats playoff probability model, which provides detailed estimates of each contending team's postseason chances. During live games, playoff probabilities are dynamically updated every five minutes, incorporating the latest win probabilities from NGS for all ongoing games in every simulation. Visit NFL.com's Playoff Picture for a live look at the latest postseason odds. For more context around terms like "If win," "If lose" and "playoff leverage" click here.

NOTE: All probabilities presented are current as of 11:30 a.m. ET on Dec. 2 unless otherwise noted below.

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• On the bubble
• Still in the hunt
• Division races
• Remaining strength of schedule rankings

NFL playoff picture entering Week 14

• If you thought last week's AFC slate was juicy, just look at the high-leverage affairs on tap this Sunday:
  • No. 9 Steelers (6-6) at No. 4 Ravens (6-6): 92 points of combined leverage
  • No. 8 Texans (7-5) at No. 10 Chiefs (6-6): 75 points
  • No. 3 Jaguars (8-4) at No. 6 Colts (8-4): 52 points
• That Steelers-Ravens number is staggering -- stakes we typically see closer to the end of the season. Although both teams would improve to 7-6 overall with a win, if the Ravens prevail, they'd be in position to lock up the division by Week 17 regardless of what Pittsburgh does, making their Week 18 rematch moot. However, even if Pittsburgh succeeds on Sunday and assumes the AFC North lead, the Ravens could still potentially overtake them in the season finale. This is why Baltimore's "If Win" playoff probability shoots up to 84 percent, while Pittsburgh's levels out at an uncomfortable 62 percent.
• Whether you win by way of a failed two-point try or a 20-point margin, the W's all count the same in the final tally. No team knows that better than the Broncos, whose nine-game run since the end of September includes a league-high seven victories by four points or fewer. While their winning margins have not always been substantial, their lead over the AFC's bubble teams sure is, which is why Denver enters Week 14 with a 99 percent playoff probability.
• Barring an epic disaster in Vegas this weekend (which, to be fair, can happen to the best of us), the Broncos will assume control of the No. 1 seed from the Pats (who have the week off) by Sunday evening.
• The Bills' dominant performance at Pittsburgh added a couple points to their postseason probability and stacked another H2H win over a bubble team to their growing pile. With victories over Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Kansas City -- and potentially Cincinnati on Sunday -- Buffalo has only Houston to fear, should tie-breakers come into play. ...
• ... Speaking of the Texans (and their terrifying defense), they could make their playoff-picture debut with a win at Kansas City on Sunday. As it so happens, no AFC division has more at stake in Week 14 than the South, which could emerge from this weekend's chaos with a new clubhouse leader and three members in postseason position. Lot of moving parts here, so bear with me. Assuming Colts-Jags doesn't end in a tie, then:
  • If the Texans win at Kansas City on Sunday, they will end the week in possession of at least the seventh seed. If both the Chargers (at Eagles) and Bills (vs. Bengals) also win, then the loser of Colts-Jaguars exits the playoff picture entirely.
  • If the Texans win and either the Chargers or Bills lose, then Houston, Indy and Jacksonville would all be in possession of postseason slots entering Week 15.
  • If the Texans win and both the Chargers and Bills lose, then not only are all three AFC South teams in the picture, but Houston would jump up to the No. 5 seed, with the loser of Colts-Jags falling to No. 7.
• Since its inaugural season 23 years ago, the AFC South has only sent three teams to the playoffs once before, in 2007.
• L.A.'s Week 13 win over the Raiders came at a potentially season-altering cost, with Justin Herbert fracturing his non-throwing hand. The Bolts could really use some favorable news regarding their QB1's upcoming availability, because they won't find many positives in their remaining schedule. Sure, the season finale at Denver could end up being a winner-takes-all division bout, which would constitute something of a "positive," but that scenario only comes into play if L.A. is within one game of the Broncos' record when Week 18 arrives. And the Eagles, Chiefs, Cowboys and Texans figure to have different priorities when each takes on the Chargers over the next four weeks.

• On Monday, Oct. 13, Chicago earned a walk-off win at Washington -- the site of last year's season-derailing Hail Mary loss -- to improve to 3-2 and 10th place in the NFC. Six wins, seven weeks and exactly 50 days later, the Bears sit alone atop the conference. For the first time since 2006 -- and in the 40th-anniversary season of the franchise's only Super Bowl-winning team -- the calendar has flipped to December with Chicago in first place. Let's take a minute to let that sink in. ...
• ... OK, now for the negative: The Bears haven't clinched anything yet. With five games to play and the fifth-hardest remaining slate, staying on top of the mountain might prove to be even harder than the climb up. As Ben Johnson said on Monday, the team will have to earn the right to play in the tournament. And while millions of Bears fans surely believe they will, the NGS model isn't quite there yet. Three squads currently sport a higher probability than Chicago (10%) to finish as the No. 1 seed (Rams, 36%; Seahawks, 22%; Packers, 12%). In fact, the Bears still aren't even the favorites to win the NFC North. As a Chicago kid, this just became personal with me. No free hot dogs for the Next Gen machine.
• Much to the chagrin of Chicagoans, the Packers enter this weekend's head-to-head heavyweight bout following a huge win of their own, having secured the season sweep of the Lions on Thanksgiving. Every Bears-Packers game is meaningful in its own way, but Sunday's showdown has some particularly spicy stakes: If the Bears win at Lambeau, they become a near lock to clinch a postseason berth, bolstering their bid for the No. 1 seed and the NFC North title along the way; if the Packers win, they replace Chicago atop the division and, with losses by L.A. and Seattle, move to No. 1 in the conference, too.
• ... Speaking of No. 1 seeds being supplanted, Chicago's ascent to the top of the NFC was only made possible by the Panthers' stunning victory over the Rams on Sunday. Carolina has now pulled off the two biggest upsets of the 2025 season (along with Week 9 at Green Bay) and has a winning record (7-6), yet currently sits in 10th place with an 18% playoff probability. The NFC is nasty this year.
• As for the team the Panthers beat on Sunday, well, the Rams remain the frontrunners for home-field advantage throughout, though their margin for error has dwindled. They still have to play Detroit and at Seattle over the next three weeks, with two rounds against Arizona also in the stretch-run mix. And don't be too hasty to count those Cardinals tilts toward the Rams' win total, as Jonathan Gannon's group has played the Rams tough over their two most recent matchups, handing L.A. its most lopsided loss of the 2020s last year in the desert.
• Despite dropping back-to-back conference games, the Eagles still boast the second-best playoff probability of any NFC team (95%) thanks to their sizable division lead. But there's no way the reigning champs feel comfortable ceding two slots in as many weeks while the Cowboys claw their way back into contention.
• After three consecutive wins, the 49ers hit the bye knowing their spot in the tournament will only improve during their break. San Francisco is guaranteed at least the No. 6 seed, regardless of how the week plays out. But their slot could get even better: Losses by the Seahawks (at Atlanta) and the Rams (at Arizona) would bump San Francisco up to the No. 2 seed. Like getting a promotion on your day off!

Which teams are on the playoff bubble?

• Considering the deep hole the Chiefs have dug for themselves, they couldn't have asked for a more favorable Week 14 slate with which to improve their playoff hopes. If Kansas City can handle business at home against red-hot Houston (7-5), the reigning AFC champs could hit Week 15 having made up serious ground in the postseason chase. All of the teams standing between them and a wild-card spot face stiff competition this weekend. Take a look:
  • No. 5 Chargers (8-4) vs. NFC No. 3 Eagles (8-4)
  • No. 6 Colts (8-4) at No. 3 Jaguars (8-4)
  • No. 7 Bills (8-4) vs. No. 12 Bengals (4-8 ... but Joe Burrow)
  • No. 9 Steelers (6-6) at No. 4 Ravens (6-6)
• However, the same goes for the Texans, who have battled their way back into both the wild-card and AFC South races after a disappointing 0-3 start to the season. Over the last six weeks, they've beaten four squads that currently appear in the 14-team playoff field. Even if they were to lose at Kansas City on Sunday night, they still have matchups against the Chargers and Colts to come, which affords them some say in their final landing spot in the AFC standings.
• The Steelers remain stuck on the bubble after their demoralizing loss to Buffalo at home. But they can't dwell on Sunday's miscues and missed chances (or growing fan discontent) for long -- not with another golden opportunity awaiting them this weekend in Baltimore. With a win, Pittsburgh ends its two-week absence from the playoff picture, returning to the No. 4 seed. With a loss, the Steelers' postseason probability sinks to a crushing 15%.

• The Cowboys have taken three straight -- including back-to-back games against last season's Super Bowl contenders -- to nearly triple their playoff probability from two weeks ago. But they'll need a fair amount of help to get over the large hurdles still standing in their way. Thursday night's prime-time affair at Detroit will serve as the Cowboys' last matchup with a team ahead of them in the standings, which means they'll have limited control over their future during the fourth quarter of the campaign. There's a flip side to that coin, though: Three of their final four opponents (Vikings, Commanders and Giants) have already been eliminated or are on the verge of elimination.
• The Lions entered Ford Field last Thursday with a 75 percent playoff probability. They could leave their home turf this Thursday at 23 percent. In case you're not a numbers person, Dan Campbell's crew is officially in must-win territory.
• Although the Panthers' road to the postseason almost certainly goes through the NFC South (more on that below), the model did project them as a wild-card team in 183 of 10,000 simulations.

So you're saying there's a chance ...

(Teams with less than 10% probability to earn a playoff spot.)

• Miami's improbable return to contention remains ... highly improbable. Even with three consecutive wins, the Fins' probability continues to hover around 1 percent. They simply have too much ground to make up with too little time. Head-to-head losses against all three current wild-card teams certainly don't help, either.
• The sand has all but run out on the Jets and Browns, who are both about as far away from the playoff picture as possible without being officially eliminated. Neither team earned a playoff berth in even one simulation this week -- including the "If Win" scenarios.

Eliminated AFC Teams

15. Las Vegas Raiders (2-10)
16. Tennessee Titans (1-11)

• Three teams simply waiting for the other shoe to drop. At .02 percent, Minnesota will need many, many miracles to still earn a postseason berth. But that the Vikings punched their ticket in even one simulated scenario -- let alone two -- is kind of fun. With their best attainable record being 9-8, they'll need potential wild-card contenders with eight wins or fewer -- like Detroit, Green Bay and Dallas -- to fall short of the nine-win mark. And as it turns out, Minnesota will face the Lions, Packers and Cowboys over the next five weeks. So, do what you do best, Vikings fans, and root against the Cheeseheads this weekend.

Eliminated NFC Teams

13. Arizona Cardinals (3-9)
15. New Orleans Saints (2-10)
16. New York Giants (2-11)

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Who's most likely to win each division?

(Teams that have been mathematically eliminated from their divisional races are not included below.)

• A win over the Bengals on Sunday would bring Buffalo to within two games of New England in the AFC East standings, with a head-to-head matchup on tap for Week 15. But the Pats could lose that rubber match with the Bills and the game after that, in Baltimore, and still lock up the division title by beating the Jets and Dolphins to close out the year.
• The Dolphins were officially knocked out of division contention after the Patriots' win on Monday night.

• Another season, another tight AFC North race. Unlike in previous years, however, neither the Ravens nor the Steelers have shown any apparent desire to actually win this competition, with both seemingly happy for the other to lose it.
• Unfortunately for both, their missteps have opened the door for Joe Burrow's Bengals to re-enter the ring. While still longshots at 2 percent, Cincinnati has the best overall division record of the bunch and could sweep the Ravens in two weeks. The Bengals still need a fair amount of help to sneak into the tournament, but they're seemingly at their best when their backs are against the wall (SEE: Five-game win streak to close the 2024 campaign).
• Since 2021, only the Bills (.818) and the Bucs (.750) have a higher win percentage than the Bengals (.739) in regular-season games once the NFL calendar reaches December.
• The North holds the unpleasant distinction of being the only division without a team over .500. That should change this weekend when the Ravens and Steelers face off, but wouldn't it be fitting if that one ended in a tie?

• Get comfortable with being uncomfortable, folks, because this three-team race will likely take a few more twists and turns before the campaign comes to a close. Obviously, this weekend's Colts-Jags clash will have outsized implications on this competition, with the winner either retaining (in Jacksonville's case) or regaining (in Indy's case) control of the AFC South lead. But the pressure is truly on the Colts to capture Round 1, considering the sheer difficulty of their remaining slate (No. 1 in the NFL).
• Whoever wins Sunday shouldn't spend much time celebrating -- not with Houston and its 4-1 division mark hovering over this race. Stay tuned!

• Los Angeles really needed Washington to convert that game-winning two-point try versus Denver on Sunday night. Without it, the Broncos' division win probability increased by 7 points, to an AFC-leading 87 percent, while the Chargers' odds fell to roughly one in 10. Factor in L.A.'s absolutely brutal remaining schedule and Justin Herbert's fractured left hand, and you don't need an algorithm to tell you that the Bolts are projected to finish second in the West -- at best.
• Although it might not mean much to the final AFC West standings, the Chargers could still secure the franchise's first perfect division record since the 1970 NFL-AFL merger. If they end the season undefeated in AFC West play but still come up short to Denver (or K.C., however unlikely) in the pecking order, they'd join the 2010 Raiders as the only teams since realignment in 2002 to sweep their division but not win it.

• Even with back-to-back losses coupled with back-to-back-to-back Cowboys victories, Philly's division win probability still sits at a robust 92 percent. The Super Bowl champs might be out of sync, but they're very much in the mix.
• Despite a noble effort in a wildly entertaining Sunday night affair, Washington enters Week 14 in the ignominious position of sitting below an eliminated team in the overall NFC standings (Arizona) without having yet been eliminated from contention themselves. That's because, miraculously, they still have a path to No. 1 in the East: They need to win out, the Eagles need to lose out and the Cowboys must finish 7-8-2 or worse. As far-fetched as that seems, the model actually crowned the Commanders in three of 10,000 simulations -- which, honestly, is three more that I would've thought.

• I dug into the conference-altering implications of Bears-Packers Round 1 at the top, so I won't rehash all of that here. But it's worth noting that this week's heated rivalry game means more to Green Bay's NFC North title hopes than it does Chicago's. That's because even if the Bears fall at Lambeau Field on Sunday, they can retake the division lead by winning their Week 15 game (vs. Cleveland) and the Week 16 rematch with Green Bay. That's not the case for the Packers. If they lose this Sunday, they could win in Weeks 15 (at Denver) and 16 in Chicago and still be looking up at their adversaries in the division hierarchy.
• With their season on the brink, the Lions have to beat Dallas on Thursday to preserve what little division potential remains.
• The Vikings were officially eliminated from NFC North contention in Week 13.

• The Panthers beat the nine-win Rams and the eight-win Packers (at Lambeau!) in the same month they lost at home to the two-win Saints. That volatility explains both how they find themselves within breathing distance of the Bucs and still a statistical longshot. The next two weeks are important, of course, but this race feels like it's in wait-and-see mode at least until Round 1 of their head-to-head series with Tampa kicks off in Week 16.

• The Rams' division win probability took a 19-point dip from last week, courtesy of Carolina, but they remain the favorite in this hotly contested race. For now. If Sean McVay's talented squad suffers another clunker in the coming weeks -- especially with Rams-Seahawks II on the horizon -- don't be surprised if the division lead changes hands more than once before season's end. ...
• ... And perhaps as soon as this weekend. A Rams loss at Arizona coupled with a Seattle win in Atlanta would propel the 'Hawks into first place. Even San Francisco, on its bye, could find itself leading the NFC West by next Tuesday if both L.A. and Seattle fall. Improbable, but, dare I say, not impossible.

Remaining strength of schedules for every NFL team

1) Colts: .672
2) Packers: .633
3) Chargers: .625
4) Seahawks: .597
5) Bears: .590
6) Ravens: .582
7) Lions: .575
8) 49ers: .563
9) Jets: .557
10) Cardinals: .550
11) Broncos: .542
12) Raiders: .541
13) Panthers: .521
14) Dolphins: .508
T-15) Falcons: .500
T-15) Jaguars: .500
17) Bills: .475
18) Commanders: .467
T-19) Browns: .467
T-19) Chiefs: .467
21) Titans: .459
22) Patriots: .458
T-23) Texans: .450
T-23) Steelers: .450
25) Vikings: .443
26) Rams: .433
27) Bengals: .417
28) Buccaneers: .403
29) Eagles: .400
30) Cowboys: .393
31) Saints: .361
32) Giants: .323

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