Who will field the best defense in 2026?
It's a straightforward question -- at first blush. But in today's world of traditional statistics, advanced stats, old-fashioned human intuition and contemporary AI capitulation, a simple prompt can induce a series of mind-numbing queries about procedural tactics. So, let me refine the question:
Who will give up the fewest points in 2026?
That language seems impregnable ... until you remember that conventional "scoring defense" catalogues the total number of points allowed by each team, including scores yielded by the offense (pick-six, fumble-six, safety) and special teams (return touchdown). We need a little more distillation:
Who will give up the fewest points in 2026 when the defense is on the field?
There it is: Prompt purity! Basically, I'm looking for true scoring defense. For reference, these were the NFL's 10 stingiest units by that measure in 2025:
1) Seattle Seahawks: 16.41 ppg allowed
2) Houston Texans: 16.53
3) Minnesota Vikings: 17.94
4) New England Patriots: 18.0
5) Denver Broncos: 18.18
6) Kansas City Chiefs: 18.65
7) Los Angeles Rams: 18.71
8) Los Angeles Chargers: 18.76
T-9) Jacksonville Jaguars: 19.0
T-9) Philadelphia Eagles: 19.0
Which teams will fill those slots in 2026? Here's my forecast, in countdown form.
Todd Bowles’ defense has fallen off in recent seasons, with one of the biggest problems being the lack of a true edge monster. Yaya Diaby was a nice find in Round 3 of the 2023 draft, but no Buccaneer has posted double-digit sacks since Shaq Barrett back in 2021. This is why the Bucs are still thanking their lucky stars that Rueben Bain Jr. shockingly fell right into their lap in April’s draft. I’ve been driving the Bain train ever since, arm length be damned. Will the No. 15 overall pick post 10-plus sacks in Year 1? That’s a tall order for any first-year pro, but I think he can provide the kind of violent disruption that made Jared Verse the 2024 Defensive Rookie of the Year. More pressure up front will make life easier in the back end, which is key for Tampa’s young-but-enticing secondary.
How much will this defense miss Jesse Minter? In the wake of the canny coordinator’s departure to become head coach of the Ravens, the Chargers tapped Chris O'Leary for DC duties. O'Leary spent last season as Western Michigan’s defensive coordinator -- remarkably elevating the Broncos from 107th in scoring defense (31.3 ppg) to ninth (17.4 ppg) in less than a year on the job -- but he served as the Bolts’ safeties coach under Minter in 2024. Thus, he’s intimately familiar with alpha dog Derwin James and his unique set of skills. O'Leary has stressed that he’ll maintain Minter’s general scheme, which makes perfect sense, given the defensive roster’s continuity among players and coaches. Los Angeles’ most significant loss in free agency was Odafe Oweh. An edge bender who landed in Los Angeles via trade last October, Oweh piled up 10.5 sacks in 13 games with the Chargers, including three on Wild Card Weekend. Sensibly, the team spent its first-round pick on Akheem Mesidor, a mature, relentless edge rusher with an NFL-ready bag of tricks. If O'Leary can pick up where Minter left off, L.A. has the personnel to keep points off the board.
Liam Coen rightfully received praise for his debut season as an NFL head coach, but it felt like Anthony Campanile didn’t get proper shine for his maiden voyage as an NFL defensive coordinator. It took a little bit for the D to hit its stride under new leadership, but over the final eight weeks of the regular season, Jacksonville allowed the fewest points in the league (116, or 14.5 per game) while tying for the most takeaways (14). Campanile fostered breakout campaigns from guys like Antonio Johnson and Montaric "Buster" Brown, while turning Devin Lloyd into a splashy second-team All-Pro. Unfortunately, Lloyd cashed in with the Panthers in free agency, but the Jaguars retained most of their key pieces -- and they essentially added a potential star to the secondary. Thanks to a knee injury in mid-October, Travis Hunter’s highly anticipated rookie season ended before it really got off the ground. And before he was sidelined, the rookie spent nearly twice as many snaps on offense as on defense. Apparently, the plan has changed in Year 2, with Hunter primarily focusing on the defensive side of the ball. Could this give Jacksonville a true CB1? That would provide a real boon for Campanile’s crew.
Baltimore’s defense has been a roller coaster since Mike Macdonald left for Seattle. Jesse Minter’s return to the franchise should smooth things out. Like Macdonald, Minter broke into the NFL as an assistant coach for John Harbaugh’s Ravens. Also like Macdonald, Minter went on to thrive as the defensive coordinator of Jim Harbaugh’s Michigan Wolverines, winning a national title with college football's top defense in 2023. Minter then followed Jim Harbaugh to the Chargers and immediately lifted a moribund D. One crucial aspect of that impressive turnaround: Minter’s weaponization of Derwin James. Which brings us back to Baltimore, where Kyle Hamilton just earned All-Pro honors for the third straight season. I can’t wait to see how Minter deploys his new apex predator. I also anticipate a Year 2 leap from safety Malaki Starks. Oh, and the blockbuster addition of Trey Hendrickson certainly doesn’t hurt.
When it comes to star power, Minnesota easily ranks last on this list. The entire defensive roster has two career Pro Bowl bids, with OLB Andrew Van Ginkel and CB Byron Murphy Jr. each receiving the nod in 2024. So, why do the Vikings slot in here, just outside the top five? Well, there’s a reason Brian Flores signed a contract extension back in January that reportedly made him one of the highest-paid coordinators in football: His aggressive scheme continues to scramble offensive brains. With Minnesota leading the league in blitz rate during each of his three seasons as the franchise’s DC, Flores has the mind of a menace. And until opponents make him pay, I embrace the chaos. Furthermore, OLB Dallas Turner seems poised for a Year 3 breakout. After a quiet rookie campaign in 2024, the former first-round pick really came into his own during the back half of last season, recording 6.5 of his eight sacks in the final eight weeks. The explosive edge’s emergence clearly motivated Minnesota to trade away Jonathan Greenard during draft weekend. Now it’s time for Turner to increase this defense’s Pro Bowl representation.
Defensive tackles Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis can wreck games with raw power right up the gut. Defensive backs Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean were just named first-team All-Pro in Year 2. And at linebacker, Philadelphia has a Pro Bowler with veteran savvy (Zack Baun) and a versatile sophomore with immense upside (Jihaad Campbell). What’s missing from Vic Fangio’s arsenal? An established edge rush. The Eagles have ranked in the bottom half of the league in pressure rate for three seasons running. Midseason trade acquisition Jaelan Phillips routinely heated up quarterbacks in the back half of last year, but then he signed a megadeal with Carolina in free agency. The Eagles attempted to mitigate that loss by trading for (and immediately extending) Jonathan Greenard, but the 29-year-old has been plagued this summer by a nagging pectoral injury. On the plus side, Greenard was taken off the PUP list and included in the initial 53-man roster, meaning he could be nearing a return to action. With an edge group that’s longer on promise than production (SEE: 25-year-olds Jalyx Hunt and Nolan Smith), Philly needs Greenard to provide the kind of steady disruption we saw in 2023 and ‘24.
Vance Joseph’s two-year stint as Broncos head coach didn’t go as planned, but the man has been a smashing success as Denver’s defensive coordinator. Since Joseph’s return to the Mile High City in 2023, the Broncos comfortably lead the NFL in sacks and QB pressures, posting 29 more than the next-best team in each category during that span, per Next Gen Stats. At the same time, 2024 Defensive Player of the Year Patrick Surtain II has arguably become the league’s best cornerback, headlining a deep secondary that locks down receivers in man coverage and blows up ball-carriers in the open field. It’s a fun defense -- though I wonder how much Denver will miss two key pieces up front. John Franklin-Myers provided unique versatility on the defensive interior, piling up 14.5 sacks of his own in the last two seasons while also eating blocks and collapsing pockets so others could get home. JFM might not be a household name, but Tennessee sure appreciates the 29-year-old’s game, having handed him a three-year, $63 million contract in March. On the edge, the Broncos are suddenly without Jonathon Cooper, who just landed on the Commissioner's Exempt List while facing domestic violence charges stemming from two June arrests. Nik Bonitto is the team’s top QB hunter, but Cooper has complemented him quite nicely, posting at least eight sacks in each of the last three seasons. Cooper’s absence, however long it lasts, puts the spotlight on third-year pro Jonah Elliss and second-year pro Que Robinson. Are the youngsters ready to answer the bell?
Did anyone enjoy this past offseason more than Rams DC Chris Shula? In March, the team filled a longstanding need at cornerback by importing the Chiefs’ stout duo of Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson. In June, Los Angeles traded for the best defensive player in the game today, Myles Garrett. And in August, L.A. welcomed back one of the greatest defensive players in NFL history, Aaron Donald. McDuffie, who returned to his native land of Southern California after winning a pair of Super Bowls and earning a couple All-Pro nods over four seasons in Kansas City, can hardly believe this is reality. Earlier this week, NFL Channel's Andrew Siciliano asked the 25-year-old cover man how he would have reacted back in March if he’d been told all of this would come to pass.
"I probably would've said you're lying, for real," McDuffie gleefully replied.
It does feel like fantasy football. To that point, though, we still need to see how everything fits together on the actual field of play. That’s what prevents Los Angeles from shooting all the way to the top of this ranking. But entering this third season as Rams defensive coordinator, Shula has the tools to terrorize the league. Something tells me Don Shula’s grandson will be a hot head-coaching candidate in the winter.
Yes, the Seahawks received strong consideration for No. 1. And no, I won’t take offense if you roast me for not putting them there. After all, they held that top slot last season -- and ultimately hoisted the Lombardi Trophy in February. Not to mention, Mike Macdonald could be the sharpest defensive mind in the game today. I am NOT here to throw shade at the Dark Side. But Seattle did suffer some attrition in free agency. Now, Riq Woolen’s tenure with the team was turbulent, to be sure. And Boye Mafe’s departure certainly didn’t drain all juice from the edge. But those two twitchy defenders gave the ‘Hawks enviable depth in two important areas. The biggest loss of all is Coby Bryant, a versatile defensive back who became a true difference-maker in Seattle after fully transitioning from cornerback to safety. Ty Okada, who joined the team as an undrafted free agent out of Montana State in 2023, has big shoes to fill. All that said, Macdonald still has a loaded lineup, with seasoned studs (Leonard Williams, DeMarcus Lawrence, Ernest Jones IV) flanked by young stars (Devon Witherspoon, Nick Emmanwori, Byron Murphy II).
Where’s the weakness? DeMeco Ryans’ ferocious unit is teeming with talent, boasting game-changers at all three levels. You like pass rush? Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter have racked up 50 sacks in their first two seasons together. More into coverage? Derek Stingley Jr. just earned first-team All-Pro honors for the second straight year, while Kamari Lassiter received his first Pro Bowl bid. What a wealth of defensive riches -- and those are just the marquee roles. The Texans also roster a pair of violent tone-setters (LB Azeez Al-Shaair and NB Jalen Pitre), a field-flipping ballhawk (S Calen Bullock) and an underrated grinder at the point of attack (DT Tommy Togiai). So, what do you get for the defense that has everything? This offseason, GM Nick Caserio added some more premium beef up front (second-round DT Kayden McDonald) and a veteran upgrade in the back end (S Reed Blankenship). Plus, Houston brought back a familiar face in former No. 1 overall pick Jadeveon Clowney, who'll serve as a high-end rotational edge. Facing off against this edgy group is not an activity for the faint of heart. Scoring points will be a Herculean task.












