It might feel like the ink is barely dry on the 2026 NFL Draft, but I believe it's not too early to peek at what's in store for 2027. Using data from Over the Cap, I'm taking a look at which teams are likely to receive compensatory picks in next year's draft.
Compensatory picks for the 2027 draft will be determined by the NFL Management Council's formula after the 2026 season is complete, per the Collective Bargaining Agreement, but here are some things to know about the system for awarding comp picks:
- Teams that lose more or better compensatory free agents (CFAs) than they acquire in the previous year are eligible to receive compensatory picks. A team that lost as many CFAs as it signed could receive a comp pick if the value of the CFAs it lost outweighs that of the CFAs it gained.
- No team can receive more than four compensatory picks in a single year.
- Compensatory picks are awarded between Rounds 3 and 7 -- at the end of each of those rounds -- based on the management council's formula, which measures average salary per year (APY), snap counts and postseason awards.
- Players who signed as unrestricted free agents before the April 27 deadline are eligible to count toward the compensatory formula. Additionally, the Steelers placed an unrestricted free agent tender on QB Aaron Rodgers, per ESPN. The move gives them an opportunity to receive a comp pick if Rodgers ends up signing with a different team before the start of camp. Players who were released by their previous team do not qualify as compensatory free agents.
- Separately, the league awards two third-round special compensatory picks (one each in back-to-back years) to any team who had a minority employee hired as a head coach or primary football executive by another NFL club.
There is a lot of excitement in league circles about what next year's class could offer, which helps explain why teams were so hesitant to part with 2027 capital during the three days of the 2026 draft (no 2027 first- or second-round pick was dealt). In fact, the Eagles were the only team to part with a Day 2 pick (third-rounder sent to Minnesota in the Jonathan Greenard trade), but as you'll see below, Philly could recoup a third-rounder in the form of a compensatory selection.
Note that players are listed below in descending order based on APY data from Over the Cap.
TEAMS PROJECTED TO RECEIVE 4 PICKS
Projected compensatory picks
- Round 3
- Round 4
- Round 5
- Round 6
Key free-agent losses
- QB Malik Willis, $22.5 million, Dolphins
- WR Romeo Doubs, $17 million, Patriots
- LB Quay Walker, $13.5 million, Raiders
- Edge Kingsley Enagbare, $9 million, Jets
- OT Rasheed Walker, $4 million, Panthers
Key free-agent additions
- CB Benjamin St-Juste, $5 million
Analysis
- If Willis stays healthy, I expect the Packers to gain a third-round comp pick. The Dolphins should want to give Willis a full season to show whether he can be a long-term solution to their QB woes. An injury or benching could ultimately knock that third-rounder down to a fourth-rounder, though. General manager Brian Gutekunst is set up to have the maximum allotment of comp picks, thanks to the deals signed by Doubs (fourth-rounder), Quay Walker (fifth) and Enagbare (sixth).
Projected compensatory picks
- Round 4
- Round 5
- Round 5
- Round 5
Key free-agent losses
- Edge Boye Mafe, $20 million, Bengals
- RB Kenneth Walker III, $14.4 million, Chiefs
- S Coby Bryant, $13.3 million, Bears
- CB Riq Woolen, $12 million, Eagles
Key free-agent additions
- No projected compensatory qualifiers.
Analysis
- As is often the experience for teams in the aftermath of winning the Super Bowl, the offseason led to a bit of a free-agent exodus for the Seahawks. GM John Schneider spent the bulk of his resources on deals for his own players, so Seattle is positioned quite nicely in the compensatory game. Mafe’s $20 million APY should return a fourth-rounder to the Seahawks, while the contracts for Walker, Bryant and Woolen figure to deliver a trio of fifth-rounders.
TEAMS PROJECTED TO RECEIVE 3 PICKS
Projected compensatory picks
- Round 5
- Round 5
- Round 6
Key free-agent losses
- C Tyler Linderbaum, $27 million, Raiders
- TE Isaiah Likely, $13.3 million, Giants
- Edge Dre’Mont Jones, $12.2 million, Patriots
- TE Charlie Kolar, $8.1 million, Chargers
- S Alohi Gilman, $8 million, Chiefs
- P Jordan Stout, $4.1 million, Giants
- FB Patrick Ricard, $3.8 million, Giants
Key free-agent additions
- Edge Trey Hendrickson, $28 million
- OG John Simpson, $10 million
- S Jaylinn Hawkins, $5 million
Analysis
- No team does a better job of stockpiling compensatory picks than the Ravens, who have been awarded a league-high 64 such selections since 1994. So, it’s no surprise to see them near the top of the mountain again in 2027. The blockbuster signings of Hendrickson and Linderbaum cancel each other out. Jones should net a fifth-rounder, recouping the pick Baltimore sent to the Titans for Jones before last season’s trade deadline. The remaining projected comp picks are tied to moves by the Harbaugh brothers. Likely (fifth) reunited with John in New York and Kolar (sixth) joined Jim with the Chargers. The Ravens might even end up with a fourth compensatory pick, depending on where Ricard ultimately lands in the pecking order relative to his other CFAs in the Round 7 range.
Projected compensatory picks
- Round 4
- Round 5
- Round 6
Key free-agent losses
- LB Devin Lloyd, $15 million, Panthers
- RB Travis Etienne, $12 million, Saints
- CB Greg Newsome II, $8 million, Giants
Key free-agent additions
- No projected compensatory qualifiers.
Analysis
- With no CFAs signing with the reigning AFC South champions, they figure to pick up three picks next spring. Healthy seasons from Lloyd, Etienne and Newsome should bring a fourth-, fifth- and sixth-rounder, respectively.
Projected compensatory picks
- Round 4
- Round 7
- Round 7
Key free-agent losses
- CB Jaylen Watson, $17 million, Rams
- S Bryan Cook, $13.4 million, Bengals
- LB Leo Chenal, $8.3 million, Commanders
- QB Gardner Minshew, $5.8 million, Cardinals
- WR Marquise Brown, $5 million, Eagles
- Edge Charles Omenihu, $4 million, Commanders
- CB Joshua Williams, $3.4 million, Titans
Key free-agent additions
- RB Kenneth Walker III, $14.4 million
- S Alohi Gilman, $8 million
- DL Khyiris Tonga, $7 million
Analysis
- Kansas City can pencil in a fourth-rounder for the loss of Watson, who is being paid as a top-20 corner by the Rams. The signings of Walker, Gilman and Tonga will likely cancel out the losses of Cook, Chenal and Minshew. The Chiefs have a decent shot to pick up seventh-rounders for Brown and Omenihu, with Williams a slightly longer shot to net a seventh because of his lower APY.
TEAMS PROJECTED TO RECEIVE 2 PICKS
Projected compensatory picks
- Round 5
- Round 6
Key free-agent losses
- LB Kaden Elliss, $11 million, Saints
- DL David Onyemata, $10.5 million, Jets
- RB Tyler Allgeier, $6.1 million, Cardinals
- CB Dee Alford, $5.3 million, Bills
- Edge Arnold Ebiketie, $4.3 million, Eagles
- OT Elijah Wilkinson, $3.1 million, Cardinals
Key free-agent additions
- WR Jahan Dotson, $7.5 million
- K Nick Folk, $4.5 million
- P Jake Bailey, $3 million
- TE Austin Hooper, $3.3 million
Analysis
- Elliss’ return to New Orleans, where he began his career, has the Falcons in good position to pick up a fifth-round pick. The Dotson signing and Onyemata departure cancel each other out. While there’s a crowd in the Cardinals’ backfield after the selection of Jeremiyah Love third overall, Allgeier’s salary and playing time should still fetch Atlanta a sixth-round selection.
Projected compensatory picks
- Round 4
- Round 7
Key free-agent losses
- DL John Franklin-Myers, $21 million, Titans
- DB P.J. Locke, $4 million, Cowboys
Key free-agent additions
- No projected compensatory qualifiers.
Analysis
- The Broncos did not go shopping in free agency, which means a fourth-round pick is coming their way thanks to Franklin-Myers’ pay day. A seventh-rounder for Locke is less of a lock (couldn’t resist), considering the Cowboys added first-round pick Caleb Downs to a secondary that still includes Malik Hooker and free-agent signee Jalen Thompson. Locke’s familiarity with Dallas defensive coordinator Christian Parker, who coached Locke on the Broncos’ staff from 2021 to '23, figures to serve him well in the competition for snaps.
Projected compensatory picks
- Round 6
- Round 6
Key free-agent losses
- LB Alex Anzalone, $8.5 million, Buccaneers
- CB Amik Robertson, $7.5 million, Commanders
- DL Roy Lopez, $5.3 million, Cardinals
- Edge Al-Quadin Muhammad, $4 million, Buccaneers
- WR Kalif Raymond, $3.5 million, Bears
Key free-agent additions
- C Cade Mays, $8.3 million
- OL Larry Borom, $5 million
- Edge D.J. Wonnum, $3 million
Analysis
- A 5:3 loss-to-gain ratio puts two compensatory picks in play for Detroit. With Anzalone and Mays balancing each other out, the Lions are likely to be awarded a sixth-rounder from Robertson’s departure. Lopez should provide a Round 6 pick, too, in his return to Arizona.
Projected compensatory picks
- Round 4
- Round 7
Key free-agent losses
- Edge Kwity Paye, $16 million, Raiders
- OT Braden Smith, $10 million, Texans
- S Nick Cross, $6.5 million, Commanders
- DT Neville Gallimore, $5 million, Bears
Key free-agent additions
- Edge Arden Key, $8 million
- Edge Micheal Clemons, $5.7 million
Analysis
- We’ll see how first-year Raiders defensive coordinator Rob Leonard deploys his edge rusher rotation, but the pick from Paye could slide to a fifth if he plays a smaller share of the snaps than I’m expecting. The arrivals of Key and Clemons balance the departures of Smith and Cross. That leaves Gallimore to provide a seventh-round return.
TEAMS PROJECTED TO RECEIVE 1 PICK
Projected compensatory picks
- Round 4
Key free-agent losses
- OG David Edwards, $15.3 million, Saints
- QB Mitchell Trubisky, $5.3 million, Titans
- FB Reggie Gilliam, $3.6 million, Patriots
Key free-agent additions
- CB Dee Alford, $5.3 million
- S C.J. Gardner-Johnson Jr., $3.5 million
Analysis
- As long as Gilliam plays enough snaps to give the Bills a third departing CFA -- and thus more CFAs lost than gained -- they have a great chance to net a fourth-rounder for Edwards.
Projected compensatory picks
- Round 3
Key free-agent losses
- Edge Trey Hendrickson, $28 million, Ravens
- Edge Joseph Ossai, $11.5 million, Jets
- TE Noah Fant, $4.4 million, Saints
- OL Cordell Volson, $3.2 million, Titans
Key free-agent additions
- Edge Boye Mafe, $20 million
- S Bryan Cook, $13.4 million
Analysis
- Hendrickson’s pay day with a division rival should translate to a third-rounder for the Bengals. A seventh-round pick could also come Cincinnati’s way if Volson is a full-time starter all year for Tennessee, but we’ll have to see how he fares after missing last season with a shoulder injury.
Projected compensatory picks
- Round 3
Key free-agent losses
- Edge Odafe Oweh, $24 million, Commanders
- OG Zion Johnson, $16.5 million, Browns
- CB Benjamin St-Juste, $5 million, Packers
Key free-agent additions
- TE Charlie Kolar, $8.1 million
- OG Cole Strange, $6.5 million
Analysis
- The Commanders did not spend an early draft pick on an edge rusher, so I’m expecting the highly paid Oweh to play enough snaps to ensure the Bolts are awarded a third-round selection.
Projected compensatory picks
- Round 7
Key free-agent losses
- OG Cole Strange, $6.5 million, Chargers
- OL Larry Borom, $5 million, Lions
- P Jake Bailey, $3 million, Falcons
Key free-agent additions
- QB Malik Willis, $22.5 million
Analysis
- With the Willis signing canceling out Miami’s highest-paid departing free agent and Bailey somewhat on the fringe of netting a late selection, Borom represents the Dolphins’ best chance at a compensatory pick. He might not see many snaps after the Lions drafted Blake Miller in the first round to be their right tackle, but Borom’s salary is high enough to put a Round 7 choice within reach.
Projected compensatory picks
- Round 5
Key free-agent losses
- WR Jalen Nailor, $11.7 million, Raiders
- P Ryan Wright, $3.5 million, Saints
Key free-agent additions
- CB James Pierre, $4.3 million
Analysis
- With the Raiders deciding against spending an early draft pick on a wide receiver, I’m expecting Nailor to be a mainstay on the field for the Vegas offense. He brings back a fifth-round pick.
Projected compensatory picks
- Round 4
Key free-agent losses
- WR Wan’Dale Robinson, $17.5 million, Titans
- CB Cordale Flott, $15 million, Titans
- TE Daniel Bellinger, $7 million, Titans
- S Dane Belton, $4 million, Jets
- C Austin Schlottmann, $3.5 million, Titans
Key free-agent additions
- TE Isaiah Likely, $13.3 million
- CB Greg Newsome II, $8 million
- P Jordan Stout, $4.1 million
- FB Patrick Ricard, $3.8 million
Analysis
- I’m expecting Schlottmann -- who has a good shot to be the Day 1 starting center in Tennessee -- to play enough snaps to beat the seventh-round CFA cutoff. That would mean the Giants have more CFAs lost than gained, resulting in the addition of a fourth-rounder, courtesy of Robinson’s lucrative deal.
Projected compensatory picks
- Round 3
Key free-agent losses
- Edge Jaelan Phillips, $30 million, Panthers
- LB Nakobe Dean, $12 million, Raiders
- S Reed Blankenship, $8.3 million, Texans
- WR Jahan Dotson, $7.5 million, Falcons
Key free-agent additions
- CB Riq Woolen, $12 million
- WR Marquise Brown, $5 million
- Edge Arnold Ebiketie, $4.3 million
Analysis
- Phillips’ high APY should allow the Eagles to gain a 2027 third-rounder, replacing the one they sent to the Vikings last week as part of the Jonathan Greenard trade.
Teams not projected to receive any compensatory picks: Arizona Cardinals, Carolina Panthers, Chicago Bears, Cleveland Browns, Dallas Cowboys, Houston Texans, Las Vegas Raiders, Los Angeles Rams, New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints, New York Jets, Pittsburgh Steelers, San Francisco 49ers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Tennessee Titans, Washington Commanders.
