KANSAS CITY, Mo. -- The matchup for Super Bowl LIX is finally set, and we couldn't ask for a better game. The Kansas City Chiefs are back, pursuing a historic third straight championship after dispatching the Buffalo Bills in the AFC title game. The Philadelphia Eagles are here again as well, and certainly eager to avenge the Super Bowl loss that Kansas City gave them two years ago. Chiefs head coach Andy Reid will be the center of attention, as he's the most accomplished coach in the history of both these franchises, but there are more than enough storylines that will hover around this game for the next two weeks.
The topic this edition of The First Read will focus on is one that makes the most sense coming out of Championship Sunday: What are the factors that will ultimately decide who wins Super Bowl LIX? There will be plenty to discuss, but let's just stick with five for now. Here they are ...
1) Can Jalen Hurts outplay Patrick Mahomes?
As crazy as it might seem to write that, we've already witnessed it in a big game -- when the Chiefs beat the Eagles in Super Bowl LVII. Hurts threw for 304 yards, ran for 70 and accounted for four touchdowns in that 38-35 loss. He also had a costly fumble in the second quarter that Chiefs linebacker Nick Bolton scooped up and returned for a 36-yard touchdown. The Eagles need a truly flawless version of Hurts to show up in this contest if they hope to win. It's important to note that Mahomes was hampered by a high ankle sprain in that game, yet he still threw three touchdown passes and produced a critical 26-yard scramble to set up the winning field goal. Mahomes killed the Bills with his legs in Sunday's AFC Championship Game as well, scampering for 43 yards on 11 carries and scoring two touchdowns. There's no question of what he's prepared to do in a game of this magnitude. The Chiefs have won three of the last five Super Bowls because he's lined up under center for them. What we don't know is if Hurts can deliver another game like he did two years ago. He struggled with turnovers earlier this season, then evolved into a game manager who was so risk-averse that there was plenty of chatter about whether Philadelphia's passing attack would be its undoing in this postseason. Hurts silenced some of that criticism by throwing for 246 yards and a touchdown in the Eagles' win over Washington in the NFC Championship Game -- after amassing 259 passing yards combined in the two previous playoff games -- so that was a positive sign. He also proved that the knee injury he sustained in a Divisional Round win over the Rams wasn't as debilitating as it looked. However, he's now facing the ultimate challenge, one he's already encountered. We know what Mahomes can and will do with a threepeat hanging in the balance. Hurts must be even better for Philadelphia to ruin that run at history.
2) Will Saquon Barkley keep running wild?
It doesn't matter what anybody says -- nobody predicted this kind of season for Barkley when he left the New York Giants and signed with Philadelphia last offseason. He's gone from being a special back with a history of injuries to being a sheer force of nature and the soul of this Eagles team. The man ran for 2,005 yards in the regular season. He's averaging 147 rushing yards and 6.7 yards per carry in the playoffs. For even more perspective, consider that Barkley has gained at least 100 yards in 12 of his last 14 games, only one of which was a Philadelphia loss. This is why Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo's first priority when it comes to stopping the Eagles is stopping Barkley. But how does a team do that? Barkley is operating behind arguably the best offensive line in football. We'll see if that unit is intact when Super Bowl LIX kicks off; center Cam Jurgens (back) and guard Landon Dickerson (knee) were both dealing with injuries in the NFC Championship Game. But it's obvious the Eagles won't veer away from the run even if health is an issue. Barkley hasn't merely been a dominant presence as a ball carrier. He's made life easier for Hurts and opened up more opportunities for pass-catchers like A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and tight end Dallas Goedert when the Eagles decide to throw. The challenge for the Chiefs is the same one they faced against Buffalo: Find a way to slow down the run. The Texans ran for 149 yards against Kansas City in the Divisional Round, while the Bills gained 147 in the AFC tile match. Philadelphia's rushing attack is a major step up from what either of those teams can offer. Simply put, if Barkley runs wild, the Eagles are winning this game.
3) Who wins the line of scrimmage?
Both these teams rely on their defensive lines to create havoc, so the trenches will be an important place to look for indicators as to how this game will unfold. Kansas City's defensive front has elevated its play over the past few weeks and especially so in the postseason. The Chiefs tormented Houston quarterback C.J. Stroud with eight sacks in the Divisional Round. Kansas City then stuffed the Bills on three crucial short-yardage situations in the AFC title game, including a two-point conversion attempt and a fourth-and-1 stop early in the fourth quarter. Buffalo had a strong shot at winning if those plays went in their favor. It said plenty about the Chiefs' toughness that they could bear down in those moments against a dominant offensive line. They will face a unit just as physical in the Super Bowl when the Eagles line up across from them. The more intriguing battle, however, will involve the Philadelphia defensive line taking on Kansas City. The Chiefs had to do some emergency shuffling toward the end of the season to shore up the left tackle spot, as All-Pro guard Joe Thuney moved to that position to create more stability. That switch has created more comfort for Mahomes in the pocket, but it also weakened the interior of the line, where Mike Caliendo now starts in place of Thuney at guard. Caliendo could end up being a major factor in this game, because Eagles defensive end Jalen Carter is every bit as disruptive as Chiefs defensive tackle Chris Jones. Philadelphia relies heavily on Carter and a four-man rush -- that group also includes nose tackle Jordan Davis and edge rushers Nolan Smith Jr. and Josh Sweat -- to win, so the Kansas City O-line has to be on point. The Eagles have 10 sacks of their own in their last three games.
4) Which defensive coordinator has a better day?
This game will feature two of the best defensive minds in football in Kansas City's Spagnuolo and Philadelphia's Vic Fangio. Spagnuolo has meant as much to his team's dynasty as Mahomes and head coach Andy Reid. The Chiefs won their first Super Bowl in his first season calling the defense, and he's been brilliant at concocting complex schemes to fluster opponents. Spagnuolo dialed up some well-timed blitzes to pressure Josh Allen in the conference title matchup, including the one that led to Allen forcing a rushed pass that tight end Dalton Kincaid dropped on fourth down to end Buffalo's final possession. Spagnuolo also created a successful plan for defending Allen on quarterback sneaks, a strategy that led to the three short-yardage stops mentioned in the preceding blurb. Spagnuolo knew he had to contain Allen to win. The Eagles offer a different obstacle, as Barkley's running, the mobility of Hurts and the dynamic weapons at receiver are something the Chiefs haven't encountered all season. Fangio's challenge on the other side is both obvious and easier said than done: stop Mahomes. The Chiefs made it clear against Buffalo that they're going to ride Mahomes as far as he can take them with his arm this postseason. He came out firing against the Bills -- especially after Buffalo lost top cornerback Christian Benford to a concussion -- and he's likely to do the same thing against Philadelphia. The Chiefs aren't running the ball consistently enough to rely on anything else offensively. However, Fangio has two advantages working in his favor. One is that he faced and flustered Mahomes several times as the head coach of the Denver Broncos from 2019 to 2021, holding the QB to one passing TD or fewer in three straight games, including a 2021 matchup that remains the third-worst, by passer rating (57.3) of Mahomes' career (including playoffs). The other is that Fangio has crafted the type of defense that can create problems for the superstar quarterback. He has dynamic players operating all over the field (including Carter and All-Pro linebacker Zack Baun) and a secondary blessed with three cornerbacks who thrive in coverage (Darius Slay and rookies Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean). There's a reason why the Eagles ranked first in the league in pass defense and second in points allowed. This unit can be suffocating when it's at its best.
5) Can Nick Sirianni keep up with Andy Reid?
Reid is moving into position to make a solid case for best coach ever, as he's trying to become the first man in NFL history to win three straight Super Bowls (and the second to win four in six seasons, along with Pittsburgh's Chuck Noll). Reid already has 301 career victories, so it's not hard to see him surpassing Don Shula's record of 347 all-time wins in another four or five years. There's very little Reid hasn't done at this stage of his career. He's also at his best when his team reaches this game. The last time the Eagles and Chiefs met in the Super Bowl, Reid rallied Kansas City in the second half for the victory. Two of the most notable moments in that contest involved Reid calling two plays that led to easy passing touchdowns near the goal line after some pre-snap motion confused Philadelphia's defensive backs. This is the kind of devastating stuff Reid comes up with in these situations, and it's evidence as to why he's 33-7 in his career when given an extra week to prepare for a game.
Sirianni has a long way to go to match those numbers, but he's impressed in his own right this season. The Eagles imploded in the second half of last season, to the extent that there were rumblings about whether Sirianni would keep his job despite leading Philadelphia to the Super Bowl a year earlier. What he's shown this season is the power to adapt and inspire, as he brought in veteran coaches like Fangio and offensive coordinator Kellen Moore to return this squad to a championship-caliber level. The big question for Sirianni -- and not just in a game like this -- is how he handles his emotions in the big moments. He's well aware of the history involved in this contest, as Reid is the most prominent coach in Eagles history and also the man who didn't retain Sirianni as an assistant when Reid arrived in Kansas City in 2013. There's no bad blood between the two, but Sirianni certainly delighted in a regular-season win over the Chiefs last season, as he taunted fans on his way off the field (he's also even exchanged words with his own team's fans this season). Look, you can't argue with the work he's done. Sirianni has won nearly 71 percent of his games in his four-year tenure as head coach and won two conference championships. However, you don't beat Reid with bravado. You do it with preparation and execution, and Sirianni's team didn't measure up in those categories the last time a championship was on the line.
