Who's most likely to win Super Bowl LX: Ranking all 14 playoff contenders

We get it. The Rams haven’t exactly been killing it lately. They blew a 16-point fourth-quarter lead in a Week 16 overtime loss to Seattle and then stumbled through a 27-24 defeat to a mediocre Atlanta Falcons team a week later. You know what’s also worth remembering? The Rams suffered through a three-game losing streak in the middle of the 2021 season before going on to win the Super Bowl. Head coach Sean McVay has been down this road before, as has quarterback Matthew Stafford. That type of perspective matters immensely when talking about whether the Rams are falling apart at the worst possible time. The reality is that few teams have as much talent on offense and defense as Los Angeles. The Rams also are waiting for wide receiver Davante Adams to return from a hamstring injury that kept him from playing in those losses in Seattle and Atlanta. If he’s able to return for the Wild Card Round against the Carolina Panthers -- and it will be nearly a month of recovery by that point -- then the Rams offense goes to a different level. There won’t be a better unit in the postseason than the one they’ll field with Stafford, Adams, fellow wide receiver Puka Nacua and running backs Kyren Williams and Blake Corum. It’s also important to note that most of the Rams’ five losses this season have involved some fluky stuff. Philadelphia beat them when the Eagles blocked a game-winning field goal (which Jordan Davis returned for a touchdown). The Seahawks overcame that fourth-quarter deficit largely because they received a huge boost from Rashid Shaheed’s punt return for a touchdown. The losses to Carolina and Atlanta involved games against opponents with coaches who used to be with the Rams (Panthers defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero and Falcons head coach Raheem Morris, who was fired Sunday) while the 49ers defeat came down to two huge stops (a Kyren Williams fumble inside the San Francisco 5-yard line late in regulation and Williams failing to convert a fourth-and-1 run from the 49ers’ 11-yard line in overtime). The Rams could’ve won all of those contests. They’ll fare much better in the coming weeks.

If this list could be set up with a 1A and 1B at the top, then that would be more representative of how people should feel about the Seahawks today. As good as the Rams can be when playing their best, Seattle is proving how good it actually is in real time. That Week 16 win over Los Angeles was the kind of victory that can propel a talented team to great heights. Saturday’s season-ending win over San Francisco set up the Seahawks with the best possible road to their championship dreams, as Seattle enters the postseason as the top seed in the NFC. Prior to this season, the Seahawks had earned that benefit three times in their franchise history. They reached the Super Bowl in every one of those years, which is why they should be so highly regarded right now. The defense that head coach Mike Macdonald leans upon is as rugged as any bunch in the NFL. If you caught that game against the 49ers, then you saw how physical that group is and how fast they fly to the football. You give that defense two games in the rowdy, raucous environment that is Seattle’s Lumen Field and every opponent is going to have problems. What’s even more encouraging about the Seahawks is the way quarterback Sam Darnold has played lately. He’s a long way from being the quarterback who wilted in Minnesota at the end of last year’s regular season, when the Vikings lost badly to Detroit with the NFC North on the line and then fell to the Rams in another blowout defeat in the Wild Card Round. Darnold made several huge plays in that comeback against Los Angeles three weeks ago. He was just as reliable as the Seahawks put away the 49ers on Saturday night. If he continues that streak -- and Seattle finds more consistency in its run game -- then this writer will look foolish for not fully committing to them. When the Seahawks are at their best, it really is hard to imagine anyone beating them.

Head coach Sean Payton has built a team that possesses two valuable traits that matter plenty in the postseason. This squad has an elite defense, and it also knows how to handle high-pressure situations (Denver is 11-2 in one-score games). The Broncos didn’t merely luck into being the top seed in the AFC this year. They did it by finding ways to make plays when it mattered most. Yes, skeptics can knock quarterback Bo Nix for his inconsistency. The loss of running back J.K. Dobbins to a season-ending injury also will be a hindrance once the playoffs begin. The nice thing for the Broncos is they don’t have to worry about playing in the Wild Card Round, and they have home-field advantage all the way to the Super Bowl. Those perks would have been invaluable in years past, when the road to a championship involved going through a heavyweight like Kansas City and some stronger contenders like the Ravens or Bills. In a season as crazy as this one has been, those benefits mean even more. With so much parity in the league, every little edge will make a major difference. That’s exactly what the Broncos have going for them. There’s also a reason why this team has won 13 of its last 14 games: Payton knows what it takes to capture a Lombardi Trophy. More importantly, he understands that nobody is going to care if that happens by winning ugly.

It’s crazy to think Jacksonville started this season believing that rookie wide receiver/cornerback Travis Hunter was a huge key to this franchise simply starting the process of building itself into a winner. Now it’s worth wondering what this team will be like if he’s able to reach his potential. The Jaguars didn’t need Hunter to blossom into championship contenders. They needed exactly what happened this season: The presence of a tough, creative head coach in Liam Coen, a major jump in development by quarterback Trevor Lawrence and a stingy defense that has played better than any other unit in the league since Week 11. The Jaguars probably would’ve been excited about this season if they’d merely finished with a winning record after producing four victories in 2024. They’re dangerous today because they’re playing with house money after claiming the AFC South title with Sunday’s win over Tennessee. The Jaguars are riding an eight-game win streak heading into the playoffs. It’s also important to recognize that they are as battle-tested as anybody still playing. Jacksonville has played eight games against teams that qualified for the playoffs (Texans twice). It has won five of them (against the Panthers, Texans, Chargers, Broncos and 49ers) while losing two others each by a one-score margin (against the Seahawks and Texans). That 34-20 victory in Denver was easily the Jags' most impressive of the season, as they went up and down the field against a strong defense. If Coen can take his team into a place like that and beat an opponent that ends up being the AFC's top seed, then his squad can be just as scary over the next month.

Of all the teams in this year’s postseason, the Texans are the ones most likely to win a championship if their defense dominates. Houston can terrorize offenses in a variety of ways -- it excels at stuffing the run, rushing the passer, blanketing receivers and forcing turnovers -- and only one opponent was able to reach the 30-point mark against it (Indianapolis did it on Sunday in the Texans’ 38-30 win). It’s important not to be fooled by how Houston performed against the Colts, when a number of backups received action and Indianapolis backup quarterback Riley Leonard was able to connect on some explosive pass plays. This defense can create all sorts of chaos in the AFC, especially when thinking about the circumstances surrounding the quarterbacks Houston potentially will face. Drake Maye is making his first postseason appearance in New England. Nix has dealt with his issues in Denver. The Texans also have beaten the Bills’ Josh Allen and the Chargers’ Justin Herbert, and they play in the same division as Lawrence. The real question is whether quarterback C.J. Stroud is ready to elevate the Houston offense in the postseason. The encouraging thing is that he’s performed well since returning from a concussion -- his connection with wide receiver Nico Collins is the most explosive part of this offense -- and the Texans have won nine straight games. To be honest, Houston doesn’t need Stroud to turn into a superhero over the next few weeks. The Texans only need enough points for that defense to be what it’s capable of becoming.

Josh Allen is the primary reason the Bills are so dangerous. He’s been a sensational postseason performer throughout his career -- he’s thrown 25 touchdown passes and just four interceptions in the playoffs -- and it’s hard to see that changing now that he finally doesn’t have to worry about facing the Kansas City Chiefs at this time of year. That nemesis has knocked Buffalo out of the playoffs four times in the last five seasons (including two AFC Championship Games). The other team to kill the Bills’ championship dreams was Cincinnati at the end of the 2022 campaign, and Joe Burrow and his teammates are sitting at home as well. That obviously doesn’t mean Buffalo is going to simply roll to its first Super Bowl appearance in over three decades. It’s just that Allen will be the best player in this postseason, one who’s fully capable of going on a jaw-dropping heater as long as a lingering foot injury doesn’t become too problematic. He’ll also likely have to perform at Superman-like levels once again. Buffalo’s defense has failed this team in the past -- opponents have averaged 33.2 points against the Bills in their last five playoff losses -- and it’s not like that unit has been stellar this season. Buffalo has been one of the worst teams in the league when it comes to defending the run. The good news for Allen is that he won’t be carrying the offense all by himself. Running back James Cook led the league in rushing yards and he’s plenty capable of doing the same things Saquon Barkley did for Philadelphia in its championship run last year. Look, there’s no question the Bills are flawed. That also doesn’t mean they’re doomed in a season where things have changed quickly from week to week. There’s a lot to be said for learning how to win big games by losing them, and there are few current teams with more postseason experience than the Bills. That will matter when these games get tight.

To understand how much the Patriots have grown up over the course of this season, consider this: The Las Vegas Raiders have won three games all year and one of those victories came in the season-opener at New England. The bandwagon for the Patriots was filled with empty seats back then. Today is an entirely different matter. There’s a lot to like about this young team, starting with the head coach and quarterback. Mike Vrabel once again has proven why he’s one of the league’s best coaches. This team is tough, smart and does all the little things that lead to consistent winning. It also helped that he walked into this job already knowing that Drake Maye had a lot of tools required for greatness as a franchise quarterback. Vrabel was wise enough to pair Maye with offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels -- the same man who worked with Tom Brady for 13 years in New England -- and the results have been tremendous. Maye has grown into an MVP candidate and the team around him has matured just as impressively. The Patriots came into their season-finale with Miami boasting a top-five offense and a top-five defense while being so strong on special teams that three different players have been named AFC Special Teams Players of the Week (returners Antonio Gibson and Marcus Jones and kicker Andres Borregales). Now for the reality check. How much can you trust a team that hasn’t played in the postseason since 2021? The Patriots do have veterans with playoff experience -- like tight end Hunter Henry, offensive tackle Morgan Moses and cornerback Carlton Davis -- but this will be Maye’s first taste. There also have been some distractions lately, as both wide receiver Stefon Diggs and defensive tackle Christian Barmore currently are facing assault charges on separate matters that surfaced within the last week. That type of stuff only increases the scrutiny and pressure when a team is chasing a championship. The fact is the Patriots have the talent to win it all. They simply must show how well they can play when the games mean a lot more.

There is no more confounding team in this postseason than this one. The Eagles won the Super Bowl last season, and they have a defense dominant enough to lead them to a championship once again. The question, which has been the case all year, is whether the Philadelphia offense is going to do its part once the postseason begins. Philadelphia currently ranks in the bottom half of the league in both scoring and total yards, and one of the most bizarre stats this year is that quarterback Jalen Hurts is 9-0 in games when he throws for less than 200 yards. The Eagles certainly deserve credit for thriving despite consistently failing to build an explosive offense around Hurts, running back Saquon Barkley, tight end Dallas Goedert and wide receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. It’s simply hard to imagine them bullying opponents for three straight weeks on defense while that offense sputters along. The best hope for Philadelphia is that resting its starters in the season-finale does two things: 1) It allows a banged-up offensive line to heal; and 2) it gives offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo and head coach Nick Sirianni time to think about how to boost this unit’s production in the coming weeks. We all know defensive coordinator Vic Fangio will have his defense ready because this unit has only allowed one 30-point game all season. The best-case scenario for the offense is that it remembers how much it also meant to Philadelphia’s postseason success last year.

That Saturday night loss to Seattle should’ve left viewers with two major takeaways. The first is that 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan should run away with Coach of the Year honors after the job he did with an injury-riddle squad. The second is that there isn’t much left for him to squeeze out of this bunch. The 49ers looked like a team that literally couldn’t keep up with the Seahawks on a night when the NFC West and the top seed in the NFC playoffs hung in the balance. That’s not a knock. It’s just the reality of where the 49ers sit. Yes, Shanahan has kept that offense humming despite losing quarterback Brock Purdy and star tight end George Kittle for extensive stretches (and the 49ers didn’t have left tackle Trent Williams or wide receiver Ricky Pearsall available on Saturday night). Running back Christian McCaffrey also has carried such a heavy offensive load that it’s fair for him to be discussed in the MVP conversation. But let’s also be honest: That defense has been a problem after taking on so many massive injuries -- including those to edge rusher Nick Bosa and linebacker Fred Warner -- and the last two games have shown how vulnerable it is. The final score of the Seattle loss was only 13-3, but the Seahawks easily could’ve won by 20 points. Seattle ran for 180 -- its second-highest total of the season -- and moved the ball at will. The Bears were even more impressive when the 49ers beat them 42-38 a week earlier. Chicago wound up with 440 total yards and routinely exploited the fact that San Francisco’s pass rush can often be non-existent. Those games tell you how incredible it was for the 49ers to even be in the position they were heading into this weekend. They’ve had a great run. Unfortunately for them, they don’t look like they can do much more.

There haven’t been too many feel-good stories that can match what the Bears have become under Ben Johnson in his first year as head coach. They won the NFC North after winning only five games in 2024. They’ve developed a strong culture and a blue-collar identity even without second-year quarterback Caleb Williams growing into a star just yet. Most importantly -- especially when it comes to playing in January -- this team doesn’t panic when times get tough. The best statistic the Bears have going for them involves their six victories that happened despite trailing with two minutes or less remaining in those games. That tells you this team is tough-minded. It tells you Williams doesn’t sweat in critical moments. It also tells you that it wouldn’t be surprising if this team found a way to pull off a few more surprises to reach the Super Bowl. For that to happen, the Bears sorely need their defense to be more than just a unit that excels at taking the football away. This unit has been horrid against both the run and the pass, and it’s hard to count on turnover margin -- Chicago leads the league in that category -- when you face good opponents every week in the postseason. It’s also important to note that the Bears have shown they have the chops to create some noise based on the past few weeks. This team ran for 281 yards in a Black Friday win over Philadelphia and also came within an errant Williams pass of winning in the final seconds of a Week 17 loss to San Francisco. Chicago is 2-2 against NFC teams that qualified for the playoffs. Bottom line -- this team probably can’t keep winning close games in dramatic fashion, but it also isn’t going to go away quietly.

Like a lot of teams in this postseason, the Chargers proved they know a few things about resilience. They’ve reached the playoffs for the second straight season despite season-ending injuries to both starting offensive tackles (Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt) and quarterback Justin Herbert playing the past month with a fractured left hand. Those are three of the five most important players on the entire Los Angeles roster. Yet this team willed itself to enough victories in the second half of the season to secure a wild-card spot. The problem is that life becomes much harder in January for a team as compromised as this one is offensively. As good a job as head coach Jim Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman have done scheming around these challenges, relying on a beat-up offense against some of the better defenses in these AFC playoffs -- like Houston, Jacksonville or Denver -- is a tough road to travel. The Chargers should be able to keep the games tight because their defense has been strong all season (and did force a total of seven turnovers in must-win situations against Philadelphia and Kansas City down the stretch). It’s just that this team came into the season believing its identity would be built around dominating in the trenches. As much as the Chargers have adapted, that offensive line eventually will become a bigger issue in the postseason. 

This ranking would look far different for the Packers if this discussion was happening a little over a month ago. There were plenty of reasons to believe this team had the chops to make a Super Bowl run simply because of the personnel on the roster. That’s how much things have changed around Green Bay these days. This team had lost three straight heading into a meaningless season-finale at Minnesota, and it’s difficult to see a major improvement ahead. It was already bad enough that Green Bay lost star tight end Tucker Kraft for the season with a torn ACL in a Week 9 loss to Carolina. But its championship hopes suffered an even more crippling blow six weeks later when star edge rusher Micah Parsons sustained the same injury in a defeat at Denver. The Packers have been dealing with an assortment of other health issues at other positions but, as is the case in San Francisco, it's really hard to project wins when stars aren’t on the field. The loss of Parsons is especially brutal because he’s been so essential to Green Bay’s ability to rush the passer. Without him, this team doesn’t have the same juice to create issues for opposing offenses. Now, is it possible quarterback Jordan Love -- who was dealing with a concussion at the end of the season -- could get hot and create some surprises? Sure. Is it worth believing that will happen? No way in hell.

Aaron Rodgers did his part for the Steelers. When they faced a winner-take-all game for the NFC North title and the final spot in this year’s postseason, he made enough plays to put Pittsburgh in position before Tyler Loop’s missed field goal sealed a 26-24 win over Baltimore. The Steelers have been leaning heavily on Rodgers over the past month, as Pittsburgh won four of its last five games with the 42-year-old quarterback playing some of his best football. Now we must see if Rodgers can do even more for the Steelers. Pittsburgh hasn’t advanced past the Wild Card Round since the 2017 season. It has lost in the first round in each of the previous two seasons, and the challenge awaiting it next weekend -- the Houston Texans -- will be daunting. The last thing an offense as middling as Pittsburgh's wants is a matchup with the league’s best defense. To make matters worse, the Steelers defense has underwhelmed all year (and allowed a number of explosive pass plays to the Ravens on Sunday). It helps that Rodgers will have wide receiver DK Metcalf back from a two-game suspension when the playoffs begin. Head coach Mike Tomlin also will have this team motivated to do more damage than we’ve seen from Pittsburgh in the past. What also can’t be ignored is that the Steelers have been erratic all season. That’s not likely to change now that they’re playing for much higher stakes.

Let’s start with the positives. The Panthers won the NFC South for the first time since 2015 and reached the postseason for the first time since 2017. Head coach Dave Canales has done a terrific job of making a perennial loser competitive. The defense played a huge role in that change -- it went from being the worst in the league last season to middle of the pack -- and quarterback Bryce Young made some clutch plays in critical moments throughout the year. Now it’s time for the negatives. The Panthers offense has flatlined in recent weeks, and it wasn’t that promising to begin with. This team has averaged 16 points over its last four games and won only once during that stretch (in Week 16 over Tampa). The Panthers wouldn’t even be in the postseason if the Atlanta Falcons hadn’t defeated the New Orleans Saints on Sunday. That result created a three-way tie for the division title, one that Carolina won because it owned the tiebreaker despite losing to Tampa Bay on Saturday night. It’s bad enough that Carolina is entering the playoffs with an 8-9 record. Making it with the help of another team tells you the Panthers won’t likely be playing past the Wild Card Round.

• DraftKings odds: -145
• Weeks in top five: 10

• DraftKings odds: +115
• Weeks in top five: 11

• DraftKings odds: +20000
• Weeks in top five: 3

• DraftKings odds: +50000
• Weeks in top five: 12

• DraftKings odds: +50000
• Weeks in top five: 1