You have lineup questions, we have lineup answers -- at least we hope so. Start 'Em, Sit 'Em is here to help fantasy managers make difficult roster decisions. And you know what is a good move? Starting Justin Jefferson. But that's too obvious, so you won't see such simple analysis here. Instead, we're exploring more debatable situations. And if you can't find a player you are looking for, please check out the latest NFL Fantasy lineup rankings.
NOTE: Unless otherwise indicated, all stats come from NFL Pro, Next Gen Stats or NFL Research.
Start 'Em
It has been a rough sophomore season for Thomas, with chatter that Hunter could overtake him as Jacksonville's WR1. This is a potential get-right spot for the second-year pro -- and a chance for the rookie to build on his first 100-yard game. The Raiders have allowed the fourth-most fantasy PPG to receivers. They struggle mightily against out-wide receivers, which is where Thomas runs 74 percent of his routes (35 percent for Hunter). Both have seen the majority of their production come against zone coverage, which Las Vegas plays at the third-highest rate. Given the matchup, I would take a shot on these Jaguars WRs.
As I said last week on Fantasy Live, the rumors of Ladd McConkey's demise were greatly exaggerated. In the last four weeks, he leads the Chargers in targets (41), catches (27), receiving touchdowns (three), target share (28 percent) and air-yard share (36 percent). He's averaging 18.6 fantasy PPG in that span, receiving a league-high seven end-zone targets. He has been the first read on 27 percent of pass plays during that period, per Fantasy Points Data, second on the team behind Keenan Allen (28 percent). This week, Ladd draws the Titans, who have allowed the fifth-most yards and ninth-most fantasy PPG to receivers. McConkey should stay hot -- and remain in starting lineups -- this week.
Harrison has scored single-digit points in two straight games and four of seven on the season. It has been a disappointing year, but this is an opportunity for him to show out. The Cowboys have given up the second-most yards, most touchdowns (by far) and most fantasy PPG to receivers. They have allowed the most yards and touchdowns to out-wide receivers, which is where Harrison has played 80 percent of his snaps. Lastly, this is likely a spot where the Cardinals will be chasing points. If you do not play Harrison this week, when will you?
Odunze continues to be the top option for the Bears. He now leads the team in target share (26 percent), air-yard share (44 percent), end-zone targets (four) and deep targets (12 of 20-plus). The majority of the valuable throws are going his way. The Bengals are a middle-of-the-pack matchup for receivers, but they have allowed the second-most passing yards this season. They tend to play in high-scoring games, as well, which should lead to touchdown chances for Odunze. He remains squarely in play this week.
In the four games since Tyreek Hill's injury, Waddle has averaged 80 receiving yards per game and 15.6 fantasy PPG. He has 95-plus yards and 15-plus fantasy points in three of four. In that span, he has a 22 percent target share and 50 percent air-yard share, both of which lead the Dolphins. This week, he gets the Ravens, who have allowed the second-most fantasy PPG to receivers. They have struggled metrically against out-wide receivers and deep targets, boding well for Waddle. They also have allowed the most red-zone touchdowns to WRs. Lastly, with Lamar Jackson likely returning to Baltimore's lineup, Miami could be in catch-up mode. That means added volume for Waddle.
Last week was a disappointment for Wan'Dale, but I expect a bounce-back performance against San Francisco. The 49ers have been cooked by slot receivers all season, allowing the most yards and third-most touchdowns to the position. They also yield the highest passer rating and EPA against on those passes. Robinson runs 58 percent of his routes from the slot. Plus, as discussed in this week's QB start/sit file, the Niners struggle to generate pressure, so Jaxson Dart should have time to throw. In a game where the Giants could be chasing points, Robinson is in play as a WR3 or flex option.
Sit 'Em
It looks like that 10-catch, 146-yard outing against the Bills in Week 5 was powered by REVENGE. Diggs has averaged just five targets per game since then, and he's only reached 70 yards twice on the season. He just caught his first touchdown pass last week. The targets and production have been spread around so much in New England that it makes it tough for the pass catchers to be provide weekly consistency. Plus, the Falcons have allowed the fewest yards and fifth-fewest fantasy PPG to WRs. Given the recent volume and this matchup, you can get away from Diggs if you have another option.
Thus far, Williams has been the biggest loser in the offensive coordinator change from Ben Johnson to John Morton. He has just a 15 percent target share this season, with 27 percent of his targets being deep ones. That has made him extremely boom-or-bust for fantasy purposes. This week, he faces the Vikings, who have allowed the fourth-fewest yards and seventh-fewest fantasy PPG to WRs. They've given up the fourth-fewest yards to out-wide receivers, which is where Williams runs 76 percent of his routes. Lastly, the Vikings' weakness downfield has been more up the middle, which is not really where Williams operates. Given the matchup, I would look to get away.
It just is not happening fantasy-wise for the first-round pick. After a three-game stretch that looked like the start of a breakout, Golden has just 41 yards and 11.1 fantasy points in the last two weeks combined. While the rookie tied for second in routes last week for the Packers, he tied for fifth in targets. Even worse, all of his targets were less than 10 air yards, with the intermediate and deep targets going more to Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson. The usage simply is not there. Plus, the Panthers have allowed the third-fewest fantasy PPG to receivers. Get away from Golden.
The last time we saw the Raiders, they ran just 30 offensive plays, the fewest by a team in any game this millennium. Meyers has been held under 40 yards and eight fantasy points in each of his last three games. He has just two double-digit scoring games this season, with one over 13 points. That means he brings a low floor and a low ceiling. Not only that, but it looks like Brock Bowers could be back this week, which means less targets to go around. Lastly, the Jaguars have allowed the fewest yards to slot receivers. Those targets have led to one touchdown and five interceptions. Meyers runs 56 percent of his routes from the slot.
Like with Matthew Golden, it just isn't happening for Coleman. The second-year pro has three games with more than four targets. I think he is being asked to do too much as the primary X receiver. Honestly, he could be better utilized as a (big) slot, but it is difficult to use him there when Khalil Shakir is so good in that position. This week's opponent, Kansas City, has allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy PPG to WRs. That includes the sixth-fewest yards to out-wide receivers. Coleman runs 83 percent of routes out wide. Get away, even though this could be a game where the Bills have to throw.
