We've still got nearly 200 days until regular-season NFL football returns to our screens, but the league never sleeps, and Free Agency Frenzy is on the horizon. Several signatures shifting millions of dollars over the next couple months will vastly change the NFL landscape for the 2026 season.
A few available free agents could bring just as much risk as they do potential reward. Advancing age, questionable play, injury concerns and more could set low floors for these players, while the promise of a massive ceiling could still lead to significant paydays.
Here are 12 of the most boom-or-bust free agents of the 2026 offseason.
NOTE: Players are listed with the age they will be on Sept. 7.
Last year, Justin Fields and Sam Darnold starred in this column. The former won two games across nine starts and was essentially benched for Tyrod Taylor. The latter won the Super Bowl. That’s about as boom-or-bust as you can get in this industry.
This year’s sole QB selection is Malik Willis, whose rookie contract is expiring. Unlike Darnold or Fields, Willis doesn’t have years of starting experience under his belt. He’s made just six starts across four seasons, going 3-3 while throwing for 202 or fewer passing yards in five of those six starts -- but he also rushed for 40 or more yards in five of six. Among the 73 QBs with at least five starts since 2022, his 141 pass yards per game as a starter ranks dead last, but his 44.8 rush yards per game as a starter ranks as the fourth-most.
The concern, and the floor, is that Willis will be another Fields. Among the small handful of QBs who average 40-plus rush YPG, Willis' passer rating (88.9) is much closer to Fields’ (87.7) than it is to Lamar Jackson’s (105.6) or even Jayden Daniels’ (96.7). The hope, and the ceiling, is that with a full shot as a starter, Willis could see a breakout that puts him in that Jackson/Daniels echelon. It will be up to QB-needy teams like the Dolphins, Jets, Cardinals, Vikings or possibly Steelers to determine how much risk to take on this March.
We learned earlier this month that Evans plans to play in 2026 and will explore free agency after 12 legendary years in Tampa Bay. Sadly, after injury sidelined him for half of the 2025 campaign, his streak of seasons with 1,000-plus receiving yards ended at 11 (tied with Jerry Rice for longest in NFL history). With Evans set to turn 33 years old in August, it’s fair to wonder whether the six-time Pro Bowler has lost a step over the last couple years.
Evans posted a career low in yards per reception in 2024 (13.6) and then again in 2025 (12.3). His yards per route run (1.6), catch rate (48.4%) and passer rating when targeted (69.8) all hit new career lows in 2025, as well, and he scored just three touchdowns in eight games after totaling 24 over the previous two seasons. It's that 2023-24 output that keeps Evans high in most free-agent rankings: No one recorded more receiving touchdowns over that span.
Whether Evans finally plays somewhere new or returns to the Bucs, the question will be whether he still has the juice to be an outside WR1 and dominate in the red zone -- and whether the price reflects the production. If so, he’ll be an excellent signing. If not, he could be an aging cap sink.
It’s been a murky year for the veteran edge rusher. After an offseason that included both a holdout and hold-in, as well as trade discussion, Hendrickson eventually restructured his deal last August, receiving a raise and setting the stage for him to become a free agent after the season. Injury limited Hendrickson to just seven games in 2025, with the former All-Pro undergoing core muscle surgery in December.
Since signing with Cincinnati in 2021, Hendrickson’s 18.8% pressure rate ranks second among all players with 1,000-plus pass-rush snaps, behind only Micah Parsons (20.8%). He made four straight Pro Bowls from 2021 to '24, and his 57.0 sacks over that span ranks behind Myles Garrett (60.0) and T.J. Watt (58.5) atop the NFL leaderboard. If a front office could guarantee they'd be getting prime Hendrickson for another couple years, he would easily be worth top-10 if not top-five edge-rusher money. But his age (he turns 32 in December) and injury history generate more question marks than guarantees. Very few free agents carry a "boom" potential that would place them among the top two or three at their position. Hendrickson certainly does. But given the investment required to land him, there is also legitimate risk with the veteran pass rusher.
Pierce, the second-ranked WR in Gregg Rosenthal's Top 101 free agents list (behind George Pickens), has posted consecutive seasons with at least six receiving touchdowns and 20 yards per reception, a rare feat and perfect summary of his skill set. However, his single-season career highs of 84 targets, 47 catches and 1,003 yards -- all set in 2025 -- are most certainly not WR1 material. Pierce has thrived as a field-stretching No. 2, so any team intending to sign him for a bigger role might be taking on a significant risk.
Projections for his next contract, like the one from Spotrac, often hover around $20 million in average annual value (AAV), which would reasonably put him at the back-end of WR2 territory. But in an otherwise bare wide receiver market, his value could surge beyond those figures. Pierce is a boom-or-bust player simply by the nature of his play style and offensive fit. His ceiling could look a lot like Pickens' 2025 campaign, but if things go poorly, he could end up being a more expensive Gabe Davis.
If you need a primer on how boom-or-bust Woolen can be as a free agent, just take a look at his NFL career so far. The 2022 fifth-round cornerback out of UTSA was a rookie phenom in Seattle, tying for the league lead with six interceptions, allowing a 58.2 passer rating in coverage and earning a Pro Bowl nod. In the three years since, he has six interceptions total, has allowed a 77.8 passer rating and, in 2025, ultimately lost significant CB2 snaps to Josh Jobe. Woolen even boomed and busted (spectacularly) within a span of several in-game seconds against the Rams in the NFC Championship Game, when he broke up a third-down pass to Puka Nacua, committed a critical taunting penalty and then surrendered a 34-yard touchdown to Nacua on the next play.
Mike Macdonald’s zone-heavy defense has not been a good fit for Woolen, who has also struggled against the run, so suitors need to properly assess his strengths and weaknesses before committing long-term. But if someone signs the 6-foot-4 corner as a man-cover menace and deploys him properly, he has legitimate top-tier upside at a potential discount.
Once considered among the premier pass rushers in the league, Bosa has suffered quite the decline over the last four years. He missed 20 games from 2022 to '23 and then recorded just five sacks apiece in '24 and '25. Bosa's 16.0% pressure rate from 2018 through 2021 ranked eighth in the league, but in the four years since, he’s dropped to 12.8% (outside the top 40). Instead of playing 85%-95% of his team's defensive snaps like he did in his prime, Bosa has been on the field for less than 70% of snaps in most of the games he's played in over the last couple years. He turns 31 years old this July and has hit double-digit sacks only once since turning 25 back in 2020.
Still, Bosa has upside ... if healthy and properly utilized. He was excellent for the Bills against the Jets, Saints and, especially, Chiefs last year before fading down the stretch. If a defense can unlock a late-career resurgence or at least fit him into an effective pass-rush rotation, Bosa could serve as an impact player for a contender like the Lions or Ravens ... or maybe even his brother's 49ers.
Walker is the highest-ranked free agent offensive tackle on the market just about everywhere you look. That should mean upwards of $20 million per year -- maybe $25 million -- for the 26-year-old left tackle, likely putting him around the top 10 at the position in AAV. The question: Does his play justify that kind of investment, or is he simply the top name in a weak free-agent class at the position?
Over his three years as a starter in Green Bay, Walker has allowed the eighth-most sacks and ninth-most pressures aligned at left tackle, but his low 2% quick-pressure rate and high 3.11-second average time to pressure also suggests the sacks might be more on Jordan Love’s indecision than Walker’s execution. Meanwhile, his career 69.8 overall Pro Football Focus grade is incredibly average -- 45th out of 83 tackles with 1,000-plus snaps since 2022 -- with an above average pass-blocking grade (26th) and a rather dismal run-blocking grade (74th). Here’s the rub. If Walker lands top-10 money and plays like a top-10 left tackle, that’s a boom, as trustworthy blindside protectors are very hard to find. But the evidence to support the notion that he'll provide that kind of play is somewhere between sparse and inconclusive.
At this time last year, Likely was coming off a breakout 2024 season in which he posted career highs in catches, yards and touchdowns. He seemed like the logical successor to longtime Raven Mark Andrews, who was heading into a contract year. Unfortunately, Likely's production dipped in 2025, dropping to career lows in all three categories. Andrews, meanwhile, signed a three-year extension with the Ravens in December.
Although Likely's stock isn't nearly as high as it was a year ago, there are still bright spots to highlight. Since 2022, George Kittle is the only tight end to rank higher than Likely in all three of the following categories -- catches, yards per catch and touchdowns. Likely's 8.1 career yards per target and 5.9 average yards after catch are both borderline elite. And while he's had more than five targets in just nine career games, he's been extremely productive during those select outings: 51 total catches for 642 yards and six TDs.
The question is whether he can carry that small-sample production into a TE1 role elsewhere ... and whether a team will give him that kind of shot after a down year. If he does land somewhere, such as New England (with OC Josh McDaniels) or Denver (as Sean Payton’s much-needed Joker), and thrives, Likely could be one of the sneakiest (and biggest) booms of the offseason.
Over four seasons, Dean has played at least 80% of the Eagles' defensive snaps in 17 career games -- essentially one full season. In those contests, he’s logged 146 tackles (11 for loss), 5.0 sacks and three takeaways. Strong numbers. In 2024, when he started 15 games for the Super Bowl champions, Dean finished second on the team with 128 tackles. The former third-rounder, who played minimally on defense as a rookie, has also missed 25 games in his four seasons (including playoffs), mostly due to injury. A chest injury led to his draft slide in 2022, he had a foot injury in 2023 and a knee injury in the 2024 playoffs, and he dealt with a hamstring issue late in 2025.
Now at the end of his rookie contract, Dean will be a high-risk, potentially high-reward free agent linebacker who is excellent as a blitzer and against the run, but who also needs to stay on the field to make a significant impact. Brian Flores’ defense in Minnesota, Todd Bowles’ unit in Tampa Bay or new DC Jim Leonhard’s group in Buffalo might all make sense for Dean, who could be a Pro Bowl candidate in the right system if he can stay healthy.
A promising offensive guard out of USC, Vera-Tucker started 23 of the first 24 games of his career after the Jets drafted him 14th overall in 2021. But a season-ending torn triceps in 2022, a season-ending torn Achilles in 2023 and another season-ending torn triceps in the 2025 offseason sidelined him for all but 12 games in those three seasons. His mostly healthy 2024 campaign was also rather baffling statistically: His 4.2% pressure rate allowed was fifth-best among guards, but his 10 sacks allowed was third-worst -- possibly a product of aging quarterback Aaron Rodgers’ immobility.
Ultimately, all the injuries -- and the Jets’ lack of overall production offensively -- might make Vera-Tucker a sneaky buy-low candidate, as noted by Gregg Rosenthal, who slotted him at No. 14 on his ranking of top 101 free agents of 2026 (higher than Vera-Tucker is found on most other lists). There’s no denying he’s a risky investment, but Vera-Tucker will be just 27 years old this season. He could be an underrated free-agent pickup for a needy offensive line.
Taylor is a curious case. Let’s start with the bad. Since entering the league in 2022, he’s seen the most targets (385) and allowed the most catches (239), most yards (2,668) and fourth-most touchdowns (18, tied with A.J. Terrell) in the league. He’s also logged a 21.6% career missed tackle rate, fourth-worst among corners with at least 100 tackle attempts in that span. Now let’s focus on the good. His 52 passes defensed since 2022 are fourth-most behind Denzel Ward, Tariq Woolen and Mike Jackson, and Taylor’s seven sacks are extremely rare (and desirable in some schemes) for a cornerback. He’s proven to be versatile, moving frequently from slot corner to outside corner and back throughout his four years in New Orleans, also obviously rushing the passer quite a bit.
To justify a big free agent contract, Taylor will simply have to get more consistent in coverage, maintaining the good while limiting the bad. He arguably took a step forward last year -- PFF gave him a career-high 67.6 coverage grade one year after his career-low mark of 35.4 in 2024 -- but his success might depend heavily on the defensive coordinator, scheme and usage at his next stop. Keep an eye on the Rams and Bears as potential landing spots.
