NFL playoff picks: Patriots vs. Broncos, Rams vs. Seahawks score predictions & matchup breakdowns

NFL.com editors Ali Bhanpuri, Tom Blair, Brooke Cersosimo, Gennaro Filice and Dan Parr will predict the winner of every game in the 2025 NFL season, using the unbeatable combo of football analysis and excessive punctuation. Check out their picks for Championship Sunday below.

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The lines provided by DraftKings are locked as of 11:30 a.m. ET on Thursday, Jan. 22.

SUNDAY, JAN. 25

Why Gennaro picked the Patriots: Because I'm not a member of the Stidham family. I kid. But clearly, in the wake of Bo Nix's gutting ankle injury, Denver is fighting an uphill battle, facing a sudden switch at the game's most important position. Jarrett Stidham hasn't thrown a pass in a real game in two years, and now he's tasked with punching the Broncos' ticket to the Super Bowl. It's a daunting development, to say the least. But at first blush, Denver still holds three advantages:

• The location: Including last Saturday's Divisional Round win over Buffalo, the Broncos own a sparkling 15-3 home record over the past two years. Denver thrives in the mile-high air, fueled by a raucous crowd that truly assists the defensive effort. Speaking of which …
• The best unit: The Broncos finished the regular season ranked first in yards per play allowed (4.5), second in total defense (278.2 ypg) and third in scoring D (18.3 ppg). Oh, and they racked up a franchise-record 68 sacks -- 11 more than any other team -- with 17 different players recording at least half a sack. It's a ferocious group that can completely wreck a game, with Vance Joseph dialing up pressure from all angles. Not ideal for a Patriots offensive line that's given up five sacks in each of the past two weeks.
• The element of surprise: In a league where coaches spend so much time preparing for games that they sleep in their offices, a severe shortage of tape on the opposing quarterback throws a sizable wrench into the cram sesh. How will Denver's offense operate with Stidham at the helm? Well, you can only glean so much from preseason action, and this Broncos attack is worlds different from the one Stidham led in a two-start stint at the end of the 2023 season. In this spot, Sean Payton could dig deep into his bag to spice up the game plan, and that's a frightening thought for the visiting team.

Encouraging stuff for Denver, no? Unfortunately, New England offers a viable counter in each area:

• The location: Yes, New England has struggled through the years in Denver, carrying an 0-4 postseason record all time in the Mile High City. But these particular Patriots are bona fide road warriors. With an 8-0 mark outside of Foxborough this season, New England's the only team in the league that hasn't lost a game in the unfriendly confines. The altitude is indeed an additional factor that's unique to Denver, but generally speaking, these Pats don't cower in hostile environments.
• The best unit: The Patriots just took serious exception to everyone gassing up Houston's defense, responding with their second defensive statement in as many weeks. You have to figure Mike Vrabel's D, which yielded the fourth-fewest points in the regular season (18.8 per game), will be similarly motivated this week. With key players like Milton Williams, Khyiris Tonga and Robert Spillane back from injury, New England's defense might be peaking at the right time. And offensively, the Pats have been a statistical juggernaut, tying for first in yards per play (6.2) during the regular season, while ranking second in scoring (28.8 ppg) and third in total offense (379.4 ypg). Denver's defense still feels like the top group entering this matchup, but either New England unit could win the day.
• The element of surprise: The Patriots don't have much recent film on Stidham, but that doesn't mean they aren't familiar with him. Quite the contrary, in fact, as New England drafted Stidham in the fourth round back in 2019, with Josh McDaniels serving as the quarterback's offensive coordinator for his first three NFL seasons. Something tells me McDaniels has contributed to this week's defensive game plan.

So, now I'm back to where I started … Making cheeky (cheap) zingers at the backup quarterback's expense? No: Thinking Denver's at a disadvantage. But as my score prediction indicates, I do not think the Broncos are dead on arrival.

Why Dan picked the Seahawks: Because Seattle looks like the league's most dominant team.

Winning on the road in the postseason is not easy -- I get it -- but the Rams have made it look so hard over the last couple weeks. They were trailing late in the fourth quarter to a sub-.500 Panthers squad in the Wild Card Round. Then the league's top scoring offense needed overtime to reach 20 points against a less-than-stellar Chicago defense that didn't have a single takeaway in the game. Sean McVay, to his credit, said it best when he told Bears defensive coordinator Dennis Allen after the game, "Hey, unbelievable job. You kicked our ass. Great job, man."

I'm afraid McVay might have something similar to say after the NFC Championship Game when he goes to shake the hand of Mike Macdonald. You know, the guy with the best defense in the league.

Yes, these division rivals split two extremely tight games in the regular season -- one of which turned into a shootout -- but I don't like this matchup for the Rams as much as I thought I would before the playoffs started. For one, while Los Angeles is trying to win its third straight on the road, the Seahawks had the benefit of an opening-round bye and put the 49ers away early in the Divisional Round, providing even more time to rest for their key players. Second, history doesn't seem to be on the side of Matthew Stafford and Co. Consider these nuggets from NFL Research:

• The No. 1 scoring offense is 0-4 against the No. 1 scoring defense in the conference championship or later since 1990 (three of four offenses had the league MVP that season).
• The passing yards leader is 0-6 in the playoffs against the No. 1 scoring defense in the last 50 seasons.

Stafford played at an MVP-caliber level in 2025, but he's going to have to perform much better under pressure than he has so far in the playoffs if he's going to connect with Puka Nacua and Davante Adams for some back-breaking plays. The Rams signal-caller has the lowest passer rating under pressure (24.8) in the 2025 postseason, per Next Gen Stats, going 6-of-20 for 89 yards, no touchdowns and one interception. To put that into context, a quarterback throwing only incompletions registers a 39.6 passer rating. That's not great, going into a game against the defense that posted the fourth-highest pressure rate in the league (38.9%) in the regular season.

Of course, there is the Sam Darnold factor to consider. Did he truly leave his nightmares against the Rams behind when he led Seattle to an epic comeback over L.A. in Week 16? Or might his oblique injury -- and the Rams' formidable front line -- catch up to him on Sunday? I'm not overlooking his past. Darnold's seven interceptions and eight giveaways against the Rams since 2024 are the most by any QB versus any single opponent during that period. He has just an 84.9 passer rating since Week 11 (23rd among 35 QBs with 75+ attempts in that span). Darnold's going to have to step it up for Seattle to win, and the task isn't made any easier by the loss of RB Zach Charbonnet to injury. Fortunately for the Seahawks, Kenneth Walker III is on a heater right now, gaining at least 133 yards from scrimmage in three of the past four games.

The left tackle situation for the 'Hawks does give me pause, with the top three options at the position -- starter Charles Cross and backups Josh Jones and Amari Kight -- all sitting out Wednesday's practice. The alarm bells are ringing at that spot. Ultimately, I'm putting my trust in Macdonald's healthy and unrelenting defense to send the team to Santa Clara.

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