NFL Week 15 picks: Upset and score predictions, matchup breakdowns for every game

NFL.com editors Ali Bhanpuri, Tom Blair, Brooke Cersosimo, Gennaro Filice and Dan Parr will predict the winner of every game in the 2025 NFL season, using the unbeatable combo of football analysis and excessive punctuation. Check out their Week 15 NFL picks below.

The lines provided by DraftKings are locked as of 1:45 p.m. ET on Thursday, Dec. 11.

THURSDAY, DEC. 11

Why Brooke picked the Buccaneers: The Bucs have one win in their last five games yet still hold the lead in the division race. They could get a much-needed boost this week with star receiver Mike Evans potentially making his return from a collarbone injury that has sidelined him since Week 7. Second-year wideout Jalen McMillan (neck) could also make his 2025 debut. And All-Pro left tackle Tristan Wirfs is on track to play after missing last week's loss. This is the healthiest the offense has been in quite some time -- something Baker Mayfield, who has thrown for fewer than 200 yards in four straight games, must be ecstatic about. The same can't be said about the Falcons, who will again be without Drake London. Raheem Morris' squad has had some good moments, but it has mostly struggled to put an entire game together over the last two months. That's music to the Bucs' ears, as they can't afford any more letdowns with the Panthers on their heels. If Evans is back, look for the veteran to breathe some life back into this team at just the right time.

SUNDAY, DEC. 14

Why Tom picked the Bears: They've graduated in exactly the way I predicted they wouldn't leading into Week 6's narrative-shifting win in Washington (which I also predicted wouldn't happen, of course). Chicago is now a legitimate contender, at least at this moment, with Ben Johnson guiding the Bears into high-stakes December football for the first time in recent memory. That is a marked difference from the last couple meetings between these teams, which featured an early stop on the first leg of the Joe Flacco Revival Tour (in 2023) and Myles Garrett tormenting Justin Fields (in 2021). Garrett and his colleagues on D still provide the Browns with their best chance at pulling off a W in Chicago, but this matchup isn't one of those games of Guess Which Bottom-Feeder Will Cough Itself to Life anymore. Caleb Williams and the offense are actually an accomplished unit, ranking ninth in EPA per play, 11th in EPA per dropback and -- crucially, given the hostile weather forecast -- third in EPA per carry. Cleveland's disappearing act against Tennessee's run game last Sunday showed that even the best defense can be vulnerable to a bad day. I'm expecting the Bears to make their newfound separation from the Browns' portion of the NFL landscape official with a win this Sunday.

Why Dan picked the Bengals: This is something I could regret by late Sunday afternoon, but I think it's time for me to finally quit the Ravens, my preseason pick to win the Super Bowl. After a 1-5 start, a five-game winning streak created new hope, but the optimism has been vanquished by Baltimore's consecutive non-competitive showings at home against division opponents, including a 32-14 loss to the Bengals on Thanksgiving. It's been a Stunning Collapse, Part II. Meanwhile, Cincinnati has scored 30-plus points in each of the two games since Joe Burrow returned from injury. The Ravens haven't scored 30 since Week 8 -- the last game they played without Lamar Jackson -- and they produced just 36 points in the last two contests combined. I'm not sure they can keep up, even against the league's worst defense. The Bengals' own faint playoff hopes were basically dashed by the Bills last week, so it's possible they come out lackadaisical, but something tells me Burrow won't allow it with a chance to deal a rival a death blow.

Why Ali picked the Texans: Arizona has lost 10 of its previous 11 games, including five in a row, to send its season into a tailspin. Last week was more of the same from the Cardinals: They fell behind early, abandoned the run and then dumped their hopes on Jacoby Brissett's right shoulder. The over-reliance on Brissett, while great for the backup's fantasy production, has allowed opposing defenses to tee off; since Week 10, Brissett has been pressured on 108 dropbacks -- 33 more than the next closest quarterback. This failing recipe -- early deficits, deserted rushing attack, constant catch-up mode -- has directly led to three blowout losses since early November. Expect No. 4 if the Cardinals follow the formula again in Houston. The league leaders in multiple advanced passing defense analytics -- and able to generate heat with just their front four -- the Texans are built to put trailing opponents in a bind. Should Houston's improving offense establish a comfortable first-quarter lead, I'd expect the team's relentless defense to protect it (and possibly even add to it).

Why Gennaro picked the Jaguars: Riding a four-game win streak to the top of the AFC South, Jacksonville appears to be rounding into form at just the right time under first-year head coach Liam Coen. But when it comes to assessing serious contenders, one thing's preventing me from throwing in my lot with these Jaguars. It's the question that has hovered over this franchise for the past couple years: Is Trevor Lawrence the guy to lead the Jags to the promised land? Granted, the fifth-year pro has played some of his best football over the past couple weeks. His instant rapport with Jakobi Meyers, who suddenly looks like the savviest acquisition of the entire trade deadline, has unlocked this offense. And yet, I remain uncertain about Lawrence's ability to meet the lofty expectations that accompanied his NFL entry as a slam-dunk No. 1 overall pick. Here's the thing, though: While the Jags might have a big-picture question at quarterback, the Jets are severely compromised at the position in the here and now. Tyrod Taylor (groin) and Justin Fields (knee) both missed Wednesday's practice with injuries, leaving Brady Cook to take first-team reps. The undrafted rookie made his NFL debut in extended relief of Taylor last Sunday, and it didn't go well: Cook completed less than 50 percent of his passes while throwing a pair of interceptions and taking six sacks in a 34-10 loss to Miami. Now the 24-year-old could be pressed into his first start against a Jaguars defense with the second-most takeaways in the league. Meanwhile, Lawrence gets to make his 76th start against a Jets defense that has yet to record a single interception this season. I still don't know about riding Trev and Co. in January, but they're an easy pick in Week 15.

Why Tom picked the Chiefs: It's kind of weird, thinking about a Chiefs game like, well, a normal contest between normal teams, but I think that's where we are now. We really can't just shrug our shoulders and assume Patrick Mahomes will conjure up enough brilliance to manifest a win, at least not at this point in 2025. Setting aside the idea of Mahomes as a supernatural force, these two squads seem fairly evenly matched to me, with Kansas City boasting an advantage on offense (sixth in EPA per play, compared to 13th for L.A.) and the Bolts looking stronger on defense (eighth in EPA per play, compared to 16th for K.C.). In fact, I might even be tempted to go with a mild Los Angeles upset, based on the trendlines these squads have been on, with the Chargers winning six of their last eight and the Chiefs dropping four of their last five. Except for the one singularly abnormal thing going on with the other quarterback in this game. Justin Herbert will be taking his freshly operated-on left hand back into action six days after going through the ringer in a win over the Eagles that, yes, was cinematic -- but also didn't exactly convince me to bank on him getting it done again so soon, on the road, against an opponent that, frankly, I probably trust more than Philly right now.

Why Brooke picked the Bills: I keep coming back to something my fellow games picker Ali Bhanpuri pointed out earlier this week: It's possible New England could win 15 games without beating more than one team that finishes the year with a winning record. That one team? Buffalo, which New England beat in Week 5. Now, the Patriots, winners of 10 straight, have a two-game lead in the division and can win the title by defeating the Bills at home on Sunday. You know, it just doesn't feel quite that easy. Josh Allen continues to put the team on his back when asked and knows what it's like being the hunted. That's a new scenario for Drake Maye, who dismissed that idea earlier this week. Maye must show he can handle the pressure in what will feel like a true playoff game between two heavyweights. On paper, this is sure to be a fairly even matchup with both the Bills and Patriots featuring top-10 total offenses and defenses. New England's MVP candidate could make a big statement this week. I'm not ruling that out. I'm just not ready to hand the division over yet -- even though the Pats could end up winning it eventually -- with Allen and the been-there-done-that Bills coming off a big win and ready to fight for what's been theirs for the last half-decade.

Why Dan picked the Giants: Don't tell me there's nothing on the line in this meeting between NFC East cellar-dwellers. The game has major draft order implications, with the Giants currently holding the No. 3 pick and the Commanders at No. 6. Washington will be well on its way to picking inside the top five for the second time in three years if it can't pull the upset. It's tough to know what to expect here. Neither squad has won a game since early October, with both teams playing competitive ball some weeks and getting trounced in others. Jayden Daniels has been ruled out, but I'm not sure it matters much, considering Washington was scorched, 31-0, by the Vikings in Daniels' start last week. Marcus Mariota has had his moments filling in for Daniels, but he's also turned the ball over six times in his six starts. Giants rookie Jaxson Dart has given the ball away just twice in his last six starts. Give me the team that's playing at home and coming off a bye.

Why Ali picked the Eagles: Hard to ask for a better get-right opportunity in 2025 than the Raiders at home. And the Eagles need to get right. Since the Week 9 bye, Nick Sirianni's squad has struggled to show up on the scoreboard, ranking in the bottom-half of the league in several offensive metrics, including 29th in points per game (16.2). That's a staggering double-digit drop-off from the 26.0 ppg they averaged before the break. Fortunately for Philly, the Raiders' offense has somehow been even more inept during that span (league-worst 12.8 ppg). And that's kind of how this contest breaks down, at least on the offensive side; the Eagles' bad looks OK, relatively speaking. Go through the numerous matchup comparisons on NFL Pro, and it's seemingly all four- and five-star advantages for Philadelphia. If a date with a 2-11 squad and its QB2 at the Linc can't cure what ails this club … will anything?

Why Gennaro picked the Packers: Because I believe Jordan Love is underappreciated, while I don't really know what to think about Bo Nix. Yes, it's cliché to streamline all game analysis into the quarterback duel, but in a heavyweight fight between two well-rounded Super Bowl contenders, the most important position in football kind of looms large. Nix remains a conundrum. As a rookie, he looked completely in over his head during the first month of the season, but then played like a Pro Bowler for the remainder. In Year 2, the whiplash has occurred on a more micro level, with Nix's play wildly swinging within each game. It's hard to wrap your head around. Meanwhile, Love is quietly putting together his most efficient season yet. And with his deep WR corps returning to full health, he has cooked the division-rival Lions and Bears in back-to-back weeks, lifting the Packers to the top of the NFC North. Now, Denver has a far more imposing defense than both of those teams, but I think Love and Co. are equipped to weather the storm. While the Broncos are threatening to break the single-season record for sacks (72) with 55 thus far, the Packers have given up just 18, one off the league-best mark. Vance Joseph's aggressive defense plays man coverage at the third-highest rate (40.8%), but Love has been the NFL's best quarterback against man in 2025, with a sparkling 18:2 TD-to-INT ratio and league-best marks in passer rating (118.4) and EPA per dropback (0.42). In one of the best matchups of the week, I want Love on my side.

Why Ali picked the Rams: When I took Dallas over Detroit last week, I did so with the expectation Amon-Ra St. Brown wouldn’t be suiting up. So when the Lions announced their inactives shortly before kickoff, and No. 14 wasn't one of them, I was immediately filled with regret. With St. Brown on the field, I figured the Lions' quick passing attack would carve up the Cowboys' zone. And did it ever. Fast-forward one week, and Detroit, still in the thick of the NFC playoff race, now faces another zone-heavy defense that, as the Next Gen data reveals, actually runs zone at the exact same rate as Dallas (80.6%). But unlike the Cowboys, who struggled to move Jared Goff off his spot, the Rams have one of the best pressure groups in the league. Can Jared Verse and Byron Young get to Goff quickly enough, and frequently enough, to disrupt the veteran's ability to pick apart their defense? I'm not sure, which is why I'm still predicting a solid offensive outing from Detroit. (Well, that and Jahmyr Gibbs, obviously.) What gives me pause about the Lions, then, is how their defensive tendencies match up with the Rams' hyper-efficient offense. No team has run man coverage at a higher rate this year than Detroit, and no QB has a better TD-to-INT ratio against man looks than Matthew Stafford (21-1). Unless the Lions' pass rush can consistently win up front, their aggressiveness on the perimeter (despite multiple injuries in their secondary) could come back to bite them. Just as a second straight pick against the Lions could come back to bite me. With this win, L.A. becomes the first NFC team to clinch a playoff berth this season.

Why Brooke picked the Panthers: Can Tyler Shough complete the season sweep of the Panthers? The second-round pick logged his first NFL win over Carolina back in Week 10 and has played some clean-ish football, ranking fifth in the NFL with a 67.8 completion percentage since making his first start in Week 9. The Saints punched above their weight with a win last week in Tampa -- even without Alvin Kamara, who could be sidelined again -- but this Panthers team is on a mission to build on its pre-bye stunner of the Rams. I expect Dave Canales to ride Rico Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard against a New Orleans defense that ranks in the bottom 10 against the run but sixth against the pass. Sprinkle in some timely plays from Bryce Young, and the Panthers should be sitting pretty against a Saints team that has reached 20 points once in its last eight games. Young has made steady improvements and has come up clutch with five game-winning drives in the fourth quarter and OT this season, tied for the second-most in the NFL. I trust the Panthers even more in this one if Jaycee Horn (concussion) is back. Carolina needs to capitalize on this winnable game because of what lies ahead in its schedule: two meetings with the division-leading Bucs sandwiching a game against the 10-win Seahawks. This is a must-win.

Why Tom picked the Seahawks: Because they didn't just implode? OK, so maybe it's a bit melodramatic to suggest the Colts disintegrated the moment they lost Daniel Jones for the season, since they started crumbling well before he tore his Achilles, with their current three-game skid dating back to Week 12, when he started playing through a fractured fibula. As with most QB revivals, it seems fair to argue that the roster and play-calling regime around Jones was as much a driver of Indianapolis' success this year as the QB himself -- and it's possible that infrastructure was hitting its limit, based on the team's bottom-eight ranking in EPA per play on offense and defense over the past three weeks. If the non-QB components in Indy were sturdier -- like, say, as sturdy as the pieces assembled around Sam Darnold in Seattle -- I would give more serious thought to the Colts' chances. The truth is, I would be picking Seattle even if Jones were fully healthy -- even if they weren't about to potentially turn to a QB who is much closer to his 50th birthday than your typical active pro football player. Mike Macdonald has built the better version of what Indianapolis looked like it was possibly shaping into earlier this season: a rugged outfit capable of competing at a high level with just the right amount of competence under center. The Seahawks have ranked eighth in the NFL in EPA per play on offense and first in EPA per play on defense since their Week 8 bye. They stack another W on Sunday.

Why Gennaro picked the 49ers: Because Kyle Shanahan and Robert Saleh are getting two weeks to prepare for a team with two wins. This mitigates trap-game potential, with San Francisco fresh off a much-needed bye. Shanahan and Saleh have brilliantly navigated a minefield of injuries this season, putting their team right in the most hotly contested division race of 2025. With the 49ers sitting one game behind the 10-3 Rams and Seahawks -- perhaps the league's two best teams at this moment -- San Francisco has to hit this stretch run hard in order to keep up with the Joneses. Los Angeles and Seattle already dispatched of these Titans in Nashville, so the Niners must hold serve at home in Santa Clara. They shouldn't have much trouble doing so, going against a struggling rookie quarterback and an interim head coach. And while San Francisco's injured reserve remains star-studded, Wednesday's injury report actually appeared much cleaner than what we've become accustomed to with this snake-bitten squad. Christian McCaffrey kind of looked like he was running on fumes last time out -- and understandably so, given his NFL-high 322 touches -- but now the workhorse is well-rested. And Tennessee's poor pass defense could be just what the doctor ordered for Brock Purdy in a season that's been marred by injury and inconsistency. San Francisco's won five of its last six games coming off a bye, and I fully expect that trend to continue on Sunday.

Why Dan picked the Cowboys: J.J. McCarthy rediscovered his equilibrium last week, which makes this matchup a lot more interesting than if he hadn't. It's possible he reverts to the guy who was air-mailing receivers and throwing multiple interceptions each week. This will be a lopsided game if that happens, but perhaps the worst is behind him. Kevin O'Connell must hope so. I'm most interested in the slugfest between the Cowboys' high-flying offense and Brian Flores' hard-charging defense, which pitched a shutout in its last outing. Minnesota has a league-high 49.2% blitz rate, but I don't know if the extra rushers will faze Dak Prescott much. He has 1,123 passing yards against the blitz (third-most) and ranks second in passing yards when facing pressure (1,018). Getting CeeDee Lamb back from a concussion would help immensely, of course. Dallas has been tough to beat at home and is still clinging to playoff hopes with the Eagles in faceplant mode. I'm expecting Brian Schottenheimer's crew to survive a close one, something they've proven they can do at AT&T Stadium.

MONDAY, DEC. 15

Why Gennaro picked the Steelers: A couple months ago, Mike McDaniel felt like a dead coach walking. But the Dolphins never stopped playing for him and now they suddenly own a four-game winning streak. A week ago, Mike Tomlin fielded questions about Steelers fans calling for his firing. But Pittsburgh went to Baltimore and upset the rival Ravens, reclaiming sole possession of first place in the AFC North. Both coaches seemingly turned down the heat on their respective seats, but how will their squads respond to the cold freeze hitting Pittsburgh? The forecast calls for chilly weather -- well below freezing -- on Monday night. Naturally, this raises serious concerns about the visiting team from Miami, with the good folks at NFL Research supplying this juicy nugget: Tua Tagovailoa is 0-5 in his NFL career (postseason included) with a kickoff temperature below 40 degrees. To be fair, Miami's hot streak hasn't really relied on Tua's play, as McDaniel has the ground game cooking. Since Week 10, the Dolphins lead the league with an average of 192.3 rushing yards per game. In related news, Pittsburgh has given up 466 rushing yards over the past two weeks. There's a clear path to victory here for Miami, and it goes by the name of De’Von Achane. The explosive back has truly arrived as a star in Year 3, ranking third in total rushing yards (1,126) and first in yards per carry (5.8). So, what's stopping me from picking the Fins? Well, I nearly did. But Achane left last Sunday's blowout win over the Jets with a rib injury, and although he's apparently highly motivated to suit up against Pittsburgh, he's practicing on a limited basis at publishing. The Steelers aren't without their own health concerns, though, as the team announced on Thursday that T.J. Watt was hospitalized for a lung issue, putting his status for this contest in question. On the plus side, Pittsburgh's fresh off its best passing performance of the season, and Miami's air defense remains suspect. In what feels like a coin-flip game, give me the home team that's far more familiar with the concept of winter.

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