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Deck the halls for football fun! For the first time ever, the NFL is airing live on Netflix with a Christmas doubleheader that features four AFC contenders. And the bow on top? Week 17 marks the fantasy football championships! See which player from each Christmas squad will guide your sleigh across the finish line.
Despite suffering a high ankle sprain the week prior, Mahomes charged through multiple Texans for a TD and led his team in rushing until their final possession in Week 16. So, what can you expect him to do against a stout Steelers defense?
Look for Mahomes to deploy the quick passing game to beat Pittsburgh’s relentless defensive line. Against Houston, Mahomes finished 17 of 19 for 155 yards and a touchdown on passes under 2.5 seconds. His average time to throw of 2.5 seconds was his fastest in a game since Week 4 of the 2021 season, per Next Gen Stats. And getting the ball out quickly should only get easier with speedster Marquise Brown back in the fold.
Mahomes is heating up at the right time, too. Since Kansas City acquired wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins ahead of Week 8, Mahomes has boasted a 17:3 passing TD to interception ratio. Pittsburgh has given up the sixth-most fantasy points to QBs over the last two weeks, so Wednesday represents an opportunity for Mahomes to play the role of the Grinch at Acrisure Stadium. (Check out this All-22 playlist of Mahomes’ efficiency on quick passes.)
Fantasy Outlook (from NFL.com's Matt Okada)
Mahomes has been a bit of an enigma this season. He’s finished as a QB1 just five times, but four of those five weeks have come after the team’s Week 6 bye. Meanwhile, though the Steelers look tough on paper, they’ve allowed 15-plus fantasy points to three straight QBs and 20-plus to each of the last two -- Jalen Hurts (28.1) and Lamar Jackson (20.5). Mahomes rushed for 33 yards and a touchdown with an injured ankle on Saturday, so he too can be a dual threat against Pittsburgh’s D in a critical game for the AFC playoff picture.
Freiermuth might not be a household name, but he has a chance to make a statement to audiences worldwide this Christmas. Steelers WR George Pickens, who leads Pittsburgh in receiving yards and has dominated the team’s target share since Russell Wilson took over starting QB duties in Week 7, is dealing with a lingering hamstring injury. And while he will play after being sidelined for the past three games, Pickens could take some time to get back into his groove.
That opens a door – and Freiermuth should step right through. Kansas City has given up the third-most fantasy points to tight ends this season and until Week 16, Freiermuth was finding his stride. The Steelers TE had either topped 50 receiving yards or caught a TD in four straight outings prior to Saturday’s loss in Baltimore. Look for the big-bodied Freiermuth to serve as a safety blanket for Wilson, especially in the red zone, where Wilson just tossed a TD to another TE -- MyCole Pruitt -- last weekend. Tis the season to be a TE. (Check out this All-22 playlist of Freiermuth’s TD receptions this season.)
Fantasy Outlook (from Okada)
If you need to stream a tight end in championship week, Freiermuth might be your guy. Over the past month, the Muth has averaged 12.1 fantasy points per game, scoring a touchdown in three of his last four contests. And while the Chiefs defense is decent against wide receivers and absolutely smothering against the run game, it has been generous to tight ends, allowing the third-most fantasy points to the position in 2024. Pittsburgh would be wise to get Freiermuth involved early and often, and he has as good a chance as anyone of finding the end zone.
Henry is like the football version of the Polar Express – a runaway freight train that travels faster than Santa’s sleigh. Henry is coming off a 162-yard masterclass against Pittsburgh, one of the league’s toughest defenses, and is second only to Saquon Barkley in rushing. On Saturday, Henry joined the likes of Walter Payton and Eric Dickerson by reaching his fourth 1,500-yard rushing season, tied for the second most in NFL history.
Perhaps most impressive is how Henry joined that elite club. Against the Steelers, Henry racked up seven explosive runs, the most by any player in a game this season, per Next Gen Stats. His 66 rushing yards coming off 10 missed tackles on Saturday added to his total of 678 such yards, 144 more than the next closest player. Henry’s 92 forced missed tackles on carries and receptions is second in the league.
And Henry has history with the Texans. Henry, a longtime member of the Titans, has gashed Houston for 1,513 scrimmage yards and 12 TDs over his career. The gift that keeps on giving this fantasy season is none other than King Henry. (Check out this All-22 playlist of Henry’s explosive runs.)
Fantasy Outlook (from Okada)
Late-season Henry reared his terrifying head on Saturday, rushing for 162 yards and adding 27 through the air against the Steelers. Even without a touchdown, he topped 20 fantasy points for the first time since Week 9. Now he draws a matchup with the Texans, a team he repeatedly obliterated during his career in Tennessee -- averaging 132.2 yards and scoring 10 touchdowns in 10 career games against Houston.
Collins has always been C.J. Stroud's No. 1 option, but he should expect to see the ball headed his way a lot more often. Collins, who is third in the NFL with an average of 90.9 receiving yards per game, has heralded double-digit targets in half of the games he’s played this season. Fellow Texans WR Stefon Diggs was lost for the season in Week 8, leaving only Collins and wideout Tank Dell as Houston’s primary pass catchers. And Collins’ fantasy value is surging after Dell suffered a significant knee injury in Week 16. Despite missing five games due to injury himself, Collins has tallied 909 receiving yards this season.
Expect the budding Texans star to add to that count in spades against a Ravens defense that currently ranks No. 31 against the pass. Baltimore has given up the second-most fantasy points to WRs this season and could find itself locked in a high-scoring affair on Christmas. What’s more? Collins has gained 321 yards and averages a league-leading 3.6 yards per route run against press coverage, per Next Gen Stats. Meanwhile, John Harbaugh’s defense has lined up in press coverage on 27.0% of snaps, the league’s seventh-highest rate this season. Collins is typically a surefire bet among fantasy WRs and on this holiday, he should light up the Ravens secondary like a Christmas tree. (Check out this All-22 playlist of Collins beating press coverage.)
Fantasy Outlook (from Okada)
Everything is setting up for Collins to win fantasy championships single-handedly in Week 17. He is the sole remaining “starting” receiver for the Texans, with Diggs and now Dell out for the year. Competing with Robert Woods and Xavier Hutchinson should result in double-digit targets for Houston’s alpha. And he draws a matchup with the Baltimore secondary, which has improved slightly but still allowed 20-plus fantasy points to nine wideouts this season and 40-plus twice … both to Ja'Marr Chase. Collins has Chase levels of upside in this one.
