The final week of the regular season is here, and the playoff field is far from set. There is much to be determined from this weekend's games, including the No. 1 seed in the NFC, which will be decided on Sunday Night Football. Check out the final five can't-miss games of the season below.
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Week 18 -- Top 5 games to watch
Two teams (and division rivals no less) playing at the top of their game will be vying for the No. 1 seed in the NFC. It features two Pro Bowl quarterbacks in Sam Darnold and Jared Goff, with stellar supporting casts. In addition to this being the best game of the week, it could turn out to be the best game of the season. Don’t miss it!
NFL Pro Insight for Vikings-Lions:
The Lions' defense has used man coverage on 46.3% of dropbacks this season, the highest rate in the NFL and their highest in any season with Aaron Glenn as defensive coordinator (since 2021). They have allowed just 50.6% of passes to be completed when in man coverage this season, the second-lowest rate in the NFL.
Darnold is tied for the fourth-most touchdowns (18) to just one interception against man coverage this season while completing 64.9% of his passes (fifth) and averaging 8.1 yards per attempt (fifth).
For as high as the stakes are in this game, these two teams are in starkly different spots coming in. Joe Burrow is playing the best football of his career, and it’s earned the Bengals four straight wins and a chance to grab the last wild-card spot with a win here and some help on Sunday. Meanwhile, the Steelers, who have already clinched a playoff spot, are on a three-game losing streak but have a chance to win the AFC North with a win here and a Ravens loss earlier Saturday.
In Week 13, these teams put on a laser show in one of the highest-scoring games of the year and the Steelers came out on top. Burrow has been near perfect since. He seems primed and motivated to get his team in the playoffs, but has a stout Steelers defense in his path.
NFL Pro Insight for Bengals-Steelers:
Burrow leads the NFL in completions (248) and yards (2,234) on passes under 2.5 seconds this season, while also tied for the lead with Baker Mayfield in touchdowns (20) on such passes. Additionally, Burrow has recorded the ninth-highest passer rating (109.0) and fifth-best passing EPA (+55.7) on quick passes this season.
The Steelers defense has allowed the most yards (1,810) and passing EPA (+65.5) on quick passes this season.
With the Chiefs resting some of their starters and Carson Wentz under center, the chance for Denver to beat its rival and clinch the final AFC playoff spot is well within reach. Backed by the top-ranked pass defense in the league, that might be the difference maker in beating a rival that has topped the Broncos in 17 of their last 18 matchups. Conversely, the starters might be resting, but Andy Reid isn’t. As is always the case, the Chiefs never seem to be out of any game with him at the helm, starters or not.
NFL Pro Insight for Chiefs-Broncos:
Bo Nix has targeted open (3+ yards of separation) receivers on 53.9% of his pass attempts this season, the fourth-highest rate in the NFL. However, Nix has averaged just 7.1 yards per attempt on open targets (fewest), including the third-shortest air yards per completion (1.9) on open targets.
The Chiefs' defense has forced a tight window on 17.4% of their targets this season, the fifth-highest rate in the NFL. They’ve allowed just 7.6 yards per attempt on open targets this season, the fewest in the NFL.
The NFC South implications for the Buccaneers make this game tune-in worthy. Tampa Bay has a chance to win the division with a win over New Orleans, so Baker Mayfield and Co. certainly have the motivation to perform here. Meanwhile, the Saints have been out of the playoff conversation for a while, but have a chance to spoil a division rival’s path to the postseason. If the Saints aren’t able to keep up with the Bucs, it’s still worth watching as Mike Evans looks to tie Jerry Rice’s record for most consecutive 1,000-yard receiving seasons at 11.
NFL Pro Insight for Saints-Buccaneers:
The Buccaneers have generated the sixth-highest pressure rate in the NFL this season (36.4%) and the highest since Week 12 (41.8%). Last week against the Panthers, they recorded a season-high 24 pressures and the highest-pressure rate by any team in a game this season (68.6%).
Saints rookie Spencer Rattler has been pressured on 42.0% of his dropbacks this season, which would be the highest pressure rate faced by a qualified quarterback (Rattler is not qualified).
The NFC South implications continue with this game in Carolina. The Falcons need a win and a loss from the Bucs to clinch the NFC South and punch their ticket to the postseason. Michael Penix Jr. is certainly working through the growing pains of being a young NFL starter, but his potential was on full display against the Commanders last week. The same could be said for second-year pro Bryce Young, who, despite being benched early in the season, is looking sharper and sharper every game for Carolina. It might not be a laser show, but it should be an entertaining game between a couple of young QBs, one of which has a chance to take his team to the playoffs in his first year.
NFL Pro Insight for Falcons-Panthers:
Penix Jr. has completed 11 of his 14 passes for 154 yards against Cover 3 since becoming the starter in Week 16 this season. He has averaged 11 yards per attempt and has generated a completion percentage over expected of +8.8% against Cover 3, both of which are well above league average (7.8 yards per attempt, -0.1% CPOE).
The Panthers utilize Cover 3 at the second-highest rate (45.2% of dropbacks faced) and have allowed 7.6 yards per attempt when in Cover 3, just below the league average of 7.7.
