The New England Patriots are one win away from the Super Bowl.
It's a statement that would have been laughable if uttered a year ago, but it's where the Patriots find themselves in their first year under coach Mike Vrabel. Perhaps even more importantly, it's a place they've reached because of the performance of second-year quarterback and legitimate NFL MVP candidate Drake Maye.
The formula for the Patriots' postseason success has changed, though, bringing an element of the unknown into the equation as New England prepares to head west to Denver for the AFC Championship Game. While Maye's incredibly efficient play powered the Patriots to 14 wins and the No. 2 seed in the AFC, he hasn't produced at the same rate in the playoffs, yet New England continues to win with the most complementary brand of football seen from them all season.
Maye isn't letting the results dictate how he approaches the most important game of his career -- not after he's already cleared two stingy defenses and readies himself for a third.
"I don't think you try to change it," Maye said Wednesday when asked if he might be more conservative in Denver, via Boston.com. "I think last week, if you change it, Kayshon (Boutte) doesn't make the play. Little things like that are just knowing the time and place for it.
"Trying to get the ball out of my hand and just being cognizant of the edge rushers and taking care of the football is the No. 1 thing. If we have time and have a look downfield, you know me, I'm gonna take a shot."
Maye isn't being bashful; if any young quarterback likes to air it out, it's the North Carolina product who has formed quite a connection with Boutte. When Maye fired a decisive strike toward the end zone in the fourth quarter of their Divisional Round win over Houston, it was only right that the ball was headed in Boutte's direction.
But Maye's stat line suggests there are some reasons for concern as he takes on Denver's suffocating pass defense, which ranks second in completion percentage allowed and passing yards allowed per attempt (as well as fourth in passing touchdowns allowed and sixth in passer rating). His completion percentage -- a highlight on his sparkling sophomore season résumé -- has dropped by more than 13 percentage points from the regular season to the playoffs. His downfield completion percentage is even worse in this postseason: 38.9 percent on throws of 10-plus air yards, per Next Gen Stats, a number that stands as a stark contrast to Maye's NFL-best 61.8 completion percentage on downfield throws in the regular season.
He's posted a 4-2 TD-INT ratio and a 93.4 passer rating, illustrating a picture of a quarterback who is still avoiding crushing mistakes, but he's also accounted for 2.5 giveaways per game in the postseason while being sacked an average of five times per game.
History suggests Maye may be doomed if the trend continues. No quarterback since the 1970 merger has won each of his first three playoff games with a completion percentage below 60 in all three wins, per NFL Research. It has happened for a veteran, though, but isn't common; Tom Brady was the last to do so en route to the Buccaneers' win over the Chiefs in Super Bowl LV.
Still, asking Maye to dial it back in order to avoid mistakes is counterintuitive to what propelled the Patriots to this point. Sure, Maye hasn't been the scintillating passer throughout his two playoff wins, but he's made big plays in key spots. Reining him in would only diminish New England's offensive potential.
"Our quarterback continues to show up, especially in those moments where things can go left or right," veteran receiver Stefon Diggs said. "He's making the right reads. He's making the right throws. He's rolling with the punches. Playoff ball, it's not going to be pretty. I'll take our leader any day."
Frankly, if critics are looking for a target, they should turn their gaze toward the group tasked with protecting Maye. New England's inability to hold up against two excellent pass rushes has limited its chances of scoring points in bunches while also creating extra opportunities for opposing offenses in the form of strip sacks and fumbles recovered by the defense. The going won't get any easier, either, against a Denver defense that ranks first in sacks, QB hits and QB pressures, and second in QB pressure percentage.
"Just work on it in practice," Maye said of protecting possession in the pocket. "Be mindful back there and just know that my job is to protect the football. That's every game. One of the biggest things for the guys up front is it's my job to have a timer in my head."
The onus will ultimately fall on the shoulders of the Patriots' offensive line, including left tackle Will Campbell, who will undoubtedly arrive in Denver with a target on his back after struggling against both the Chargers' and Texans' pass rushers. Maye still has faith in his front five, though, and believes New England is capable of weathering Denver's pass-rushing onslaught.
"Those guys have done a great job all year," Maye said of his offensive line. "I have lots of trust in those guys up front. I know we've faced some pretty good edge rushers in the past couple of weeks, and I know we got another good set of edge rushers coming up this week. Just know, have a feel for it, just protect the football because that's my job."
It is indeed his job. The greatest task of his career -- lead the Patriots to the Super Bowl -- will also land on his to-do list Sunday.
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