Patriots vs. Broncos: Three must-know storylines for Sunday's AFC Championship Game

The last time the Patriots and Broncos met in the playoffs in Denver, it was Tom Brady facing Peyton Manning a decade ago. This time, it will be two quarterbacks few imagined would be in this position at the start of the season.

Drake Mayeand the Patriots overcame 1-2 start to the season to win 15 of their past 16 games, counting playoffs, with Maye turning into an MVP candidate in Year 2.

His Broncos counterpart, ex-Patriots QB Jarrett Stidham, is far more of a shock to be in this position, replacing Bo Nix -- who fractured his ankle in overtime of last week's win -- and making his first start in two years with a shot to play for a Super Bowl.

Something has to give: The Patriots are 8-0 on the road this season, but the franchise is 0-4 all time in the playoffs at Denver. The Broncos might be down with Nix out, but their defense will not go quietly, even against a strong Patriots offense.

Three must-know storylines

1) All eyes on Stidham in first start in two years

Stidham is set to make his first start since Week 18 of the 2023 season -- the Broncos would go on to select Bo Nix in the first round the following April. The ex-Patriots fourth-rounder entered the NFL with current Pats offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, who later brought Stidham to the Raiders when he was head coach. McDaniels could shed some light on his former QB given that Stidham hasn't attempted a regular-season pass in two years. Denver's offense is bound to look different than the Nix-led scheme, built on the second-year pro's athleticism, designed QB runs and his ability to get outside of the pocket. Stidham isn't nearly as good an athlete, with scrambling as a last resort and little utility as a runner outside of short yardage. He possesses good arm talent and can deliver crisp, on-target, timely throws when things are on schedule, although Stidham can struggle to navigate pressure. Expect Sean Payton to dial up a game plan heavy on the quick passing game and in-breaking routes, with a few shot plays mixed in, and perhaps leaning more on the run game. An opening-drive score would do a lot to settle Stidham in. But how healthy is the offense? Wide receivers Pat Bryant and Troy Franklin and center Alex Forsyth left their Divisional Round win over the Bills with injuries. The Patriots defense has also shown its mettle, allowing only 448 yards and 19 points combined vs. the Chargers and Texans, with nine sacks and six takeaways in the playoffs. Defensive tackle Milton Williams is back and is a problem, the Patriots' linebackers have shown up and the secondary, led by cornerback Christian Gonzalez, has been mostly excellent. This will be a tough task for Stidham against some of his former teammates.

2) Maye must hold up vs. vaunted Denver pass rush

The pass protection for Drake Maye has not been excellent in two postseason games, allowing 10 sacks and 31 pressures on 66 dropbacks. The MVP-candidate Maye has fumbled six times in the two games, and Denver's rush is as dangerous a pass-rush team in the league, harassing Josh Allen into four turnovers last week, even with some big plays allowed. Broncos edge rusher Nik Bonitto vs. Patriots rookie LT Will Campbell is a potentially exploitable matchup for Denver after Campbell struggled vs. Houston. Maye's regular-season path might have been easier than other quarterback's in the regular season, but he's faced two tough defenses in the playoffs -- and the Patriots' offensive results have been hot and cold. They need more consistent production from wide receiver Stefon Diggs and tight end Hunter Henry, Maye's two leading targets. Both have scored in the playoffs, but they've combined for only 10 catches for 125 yards on 18 targets. Kayshon Boutte has stepped up in the pass game, and Rhamondre Stevenson has seen his role grow, but for the Patriots to string successful drives together, they might also need contributions from wideouts Demario Douglas and Kyle Williams. The Broncos forced five Buffalo turnovers last week after coaxing only 14 during the regular season, with no more than two in any game previously. The Patriots know they can't waste possessions and fall in an early hole, or Denver's pass rush could be even more of a problem.

3) Do Patriots have a run-game advantage?

On the surface, the Patriots would appear to have an edge in the ground game. Rookie TreVeyon Henderson has been held in check in two postseason games, but Stevenson has been highly efficient, and Maye is a weapon as a scrambler and occasional designed runner. The Broncos' rush defense was one of the best in the NFL during the regular season, allowing 91.1 rush yards per game and 3.9 yards per carry. But the Bills ran for 183 yards last week in Denver, averaging 5.1 yards per clip, and mobile quarterbacks have given Denver some issues this season. On the flip side, the Broncos have had to forge a run game since J.K. Dobbins' foot injury, most often relying on rookie RJ Harvey and Jaleel McLaughlin, along with Nix's scrambling. With Nix out, facing a tough New England front that's allowed 67.5 rush yards per game and 3.1 yards per carry in two playoff games, the challenge appears difficult, even with Denver's strong offensive line. However, there's hope that Dobbins could return after being out since Week 10. Getting him back would be a huge development in both the run and pass games, even if Harvey has been their primary receiving back this season. The Broncos could have limited pass-game weapons with a few receivers battling injuries, so adding one more veteran weapon in Dobbins – who was on pace for a 1,300-yard rushing season before getting hurt – would make everyone's job easier, especially Jarrett Stidham in the toughest test of his career.

Patriots' Championship Game injury report

Broncos' Championship Game injury report

The playoffs are here and you won't want to miss a moment. Now you don't have to! With NFL+ Premium, watch every playoff game live on mobile, get NFL RedZone during the regular season, stream game replays, and more! And for a limited time, get 40% off an NFL+ annual plan. Offer ends 2/16/26. Sign up today!