Bills vs. Broncos: Three must-know storylines for Saturday's Divisional Round game

The Divisional Round kicks off with a scintillating matchup between the Buffalo Bills and Denver Broncos, the AFC's No. 6 and No. 1 seeds, respectively.

A 14-win season has brought Denver its first home playoff tilt since hosting the 2015 AFC Championship Game, a victory that preceded the Broncos' Super Bowl 50 win at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara -- the site of Super Bowl LX.

The Bills advanced to the Divisional Round after defeating the Jaguars on the road last Sunday in what was Buffalo's first playoff road win since the 1992 AFC Championship Game (Jan. 17, 1993, at Miami).

Both the Bills and Broncos have advanced to the AFC Championship Game 10 times in their franchise histories.

Just who will make it No. 11 on Saturday will be decided in a rematch of last season's Wild Card Round game in which the Bills handled the Broncos, 31-7, in Buffalo. This will be the 20th playoff rematch since 2000 between teams that faced each other in the previous postseason, per NFL Research. The same team won both games in 13 of the previous 19 instances.

The Bills won the only other postseason matchup between Buffalo and Denver -- the 1991 AFC Championship Game.

Three must-know storylines

1. The time is now for Payton's Broncos. Denver's Super Bowl LX aspirations began at the preseason opener in San Francisco, where head coach Sean Payton used a "Head West" rallying cry to inspire his team to bring the season full circle by returning to the Bay Area in February. After a stellar 14-win season that saw just three losses, all by one score, the Broncos' are in a great position to do so. Bo Nix leads an offense that hasn't needed to produce gaudy numbers thanks to strong defense, but the unit has been expertly schemed in crucial moments. Nix, who led the NFL with seven game-winning drives in 2025, has distributed targets judiciously among a solid receiving corps led by Courtland Sutton, Troy Franklin and tight end Evan Engram. Up against the Bills' No. 1-ranked pass defense, however, forcing the issue might not be in Denver's best interest, which brings rookie running back RJ Harvey to the forefront of a key matchup against Buffalo's leaky run defense. Harvey has been the featured RB since Week 11 after J.K. Dobbins, who was among the NFL's top-five rushers at the time, underwent season-ending surgery. While the second-round pick has been a playmaker, particularly through the air and in the red zone (897 scrimmage yards; 12 touchdowns), producing consistently on the ground has been a work in progress. But no matter how one pieces Denver's potential game plan together, responsibility will fall square on Nix's shoulders. His ability to run also enters the fold as Buffalo has allowed 6.7 yards per carry to opposing QBs this season (most in NFL). Saturday's game portends to actualize Payton's young enterprise with Nix at the helm as the 25-year-old looks to bring the Broncos their first playoff win since Peyton Manning's glorious send-off 10 years ago in Santa Clara. A battle-tested group is in their way.
2. Buffalo's superman faces another tough defense. The Bills advanced to the Divisional Round after a tough wild-card game that demanded a lot from Josh Allen, who authored a game-winning drive in Jacksonville despite the visible pain he was playing through. Bruised, battered and no longer without a road playoff win, Allen steps into the arena up against another daunting defense. The Broncos got after QBs better than any team in the league (68 sacks; 11 more than any other team and fifth in the Super Bowl era) and are the only unit in the NFL to feature four players with seven-plus sacks in 2025, a feat Nik Bonitto (14.0), Jonathan Cooper (8.0), John Franklin-Myers (7.5) and Zach Allen (7.0) have accomplished in consecutive seasons. With Patrick Surtain II leading a stellar secondary, threats are abundant for Allen, who's been a one-man show for Buffalo in the playoffs with 310.6 total yards per game -- the most in postseason history (minimum 10 starts). Allen was sacked a career-high 40 times in 2025, and the Bills' offensive line allowed pressures on 36.8% of Allen's drop backs last week. He still managed to excel in those scenarios, completing 9 of 12 passes under duress and scrambling out of harms way to limit the Jags to one sack. With a banged-up receiving corps that lost two more pass catchers due to injury in the Wild Card Round, Saturday figures to be an even tougher hill for Allen to climb. How long the reigning MVP can physically carry the Bills remains to be seen, but it's difficult doubting Allen at this point.
3. Are there any clues within last year's playoff affair? Considering each team's cast of characters is largely the same, last year's playoff game is worth a look. The Bills' 24-point win over the Broncos in the 2024 Wild Card Round wasn't as dominant as the score might indicate. The Broncos scored on their opening drive to earn a 7-0 lead and were a Wil Lutz missed field goal away from tying it in the final seconds of the first half. Buffalo then suffocated Denver in the third quarter, forcing two punts and keeping possession for 10 minutes while scoring on a miraculous throw and catch from Josh Allen to Ty Johnson on a hectic fourth-and-1 play. From then on, the Broncos were pressed, and after turning it over on downs, Curtis Samuel (currently on injured reserve, but questionable for Saturday) broke free on a 55-yard TD to open the fourth quarter to basically seal it. The Bills were unstoppable rushing the ball (210 yards), which left the Broncos with a time of possession of 18:17 for the entire game. James Cook (120 yards) led that charge and Buffalo will look to get the NFL's reigning rushing champion back on track after a muted showing last week. Bo Nix began that game hot, finding Troy Franklin over the top for the game's first score, but struggled to connect downfield after that, holding him to just 144 yards passing. He was the Broncos' leading rusher with 43 yards. Sean Payton seemed to realize early on that Denver was in for a struggle, electing to call a successful fake punt at the top of the second quarter though It didn't amount to anything. It seems to have been one of those games that was over in a flash for the Broncos and one where everything went according to plan for the Bills. The tables will be turned on Saturday in terms of the setting, but this matchup is about as even as it gets considering Denver's 2025 improvement.

Bills' Divisional Round injury report

Broncos' Divisional Round injury report

The playoffs are here and you won't want to miss a moment. Now you don't have to! With NFL+ Premium, watch every playoff game live on mobile, get NFL RedZone during the regular season, stream game replays, and more! And for a limited time, get 40% off an NFL+ annual plan. Offer ends 2/16/26. Sign up today!