Ravens-Bills on Divisional Round Sunday: What We Learned from Buffalo's 27-25 win

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• READ: Top flaw for 4 SB contenders; needs for losing teams
• READ: Josh Allen ready to face Chiefs again: ‘We know what they are’

1. Turnovers, two-point tries were the difference. The Ravens controlled long stretches of this game, including a statement drive in the second half that cut the Bills’ lead to 21-19, during which Baltimore’s run game seemed to wear Buffalo down. The tides appeared to be shifting at that point. But veteran tight end Mark Andrews' fumble -- his first since 2019 -- was a gutting blow midway through the fourth quarter with a chance to take the lead. The Bills tacked on a field goal, with the Ravens defense doing its job, giving the ball back to Lamar Jackson and the offense in an eight-point game. Jackson responded with a clutch drive, capping it with a brilliant TD throw to Isaiah Likely. But Andrews made another uncharacteristic mistake, dropping the gift-wrapped two-point try -- their second such miss of the game, costing them four points in a two-point loss. Pair that with Jackson’s two turnovers, and it’s no shock why the Ravens came up just short.
2. Bills’ conservative offensive game plan effective but open to questioning. After falling behind 7-0, the Bills responded well with their own TD drive, marching 70 yards on 11 plays and putting the Ravens back on their heels. But there were very few shot plays for the Bills on the day, preferring to lean on Josh Allen -- with his legs and in the short passing game -- plus James Cook and the backs. Some of that likely was to rest a taxed Bills defense that was aggressive early but started running out of steam late. As effective as Allen was at converting first downs and running clock, their two long drives in the fourth quarter only netted six points. On fourth-and-goal from the Baltimore 2-yard line with three-plus minutes left, Bills head coach Sean McDermott opted to kick a field goal, keeping it a one-possession game. Both approaches almost cost the Bills a spot in the AFC Championship Game next Sunday in Kansas City. The Bills got it done, but it required a horrific drop to avoid an overtime against a Ravens team that was starting to lean on them.
3. Bills' linebackers step up. The Bills defense nearly bent too much at game’s end, but it made several key plays throughout. One big difference between the Bills’ blowout loss to the Ravens in Week 4 and Sunday’s nail-biter win was the presence of linebackers Terrel Bernard and Matt Milano. Both of them missed the first meeting, and the Bills’ run defense was gashed immediately -- and consistently. On Sunday, they helped keep the Ravens’ explosive run plays in check, and they each made game-changing plays. Bernard’s strip of Andrews in the fourth quarter stopped the bleeding and allowed the Bills to go up eight points late. Without that one, they might have lost. Milano earlier deflected Jackson’s first two-point try, preventing the Ravens from tying the game at 21-all. He also was impactful as a blitzer, pressuring Jackson multiple times, forcing multiple incompletions. It wasn’t perfect from the Bills defense, but the early game plan paid off, and the veteran LB duo was a big part of pulling it off.
4. Ravens will struggle to live this one down. Jackson did enough to lead the Ravens to a win on Sunday, even with his mistakes. He forced his early interception, and his fumble in the backfield felt pretty unforced, leading to the Bills taking a two-possession lead at halftime. Those two he can’t take back. The rest was mostly great as Jackson played at or near his MVP level for stretches in this game. The 88-yard drive Jackson led at the end of the game should have gone in the career and franchise highlight reels. And, of course, his pass to Andrews on the two-point try was right where it needed to be. That certainly will be the lasting memory of this all-time, heartbreaking loss. Every franchise has their Hall of Worst in this regard, and the Ravens will be making space on the mantle for this dud. They took the lead early, but there was not enough continuity, settling for short field goals a few times and giving the ball away three times. It’s hard to win minus-three in the turnover department on the road against an MVP-caliber quarterback, and yet the Ravens almost did it.
5. Bills-Chiefs will add another chapter to tremendous rivalry. Since Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen have risen to prominence, Chiefs-Bills has been just about as good a rivalry the NFL has offered in recent years. They’ll now meet for the second time in the AFC Championship Game and for the fourth time in the postseason. The Bills have won three of the past four head-to-head meetings, and they were the only team to take down the back-to-back champs at full strength this season, 30-21, in Highmark Stadium. But those wins came in the regular season and this one will be back at Arrowhead Stadium, where the Bills suffered arguably their most crushing loss since Super Bowl XXV, the infamous “13 seconds” game in January 2022 that is high up there in the all-time playoff annals. You can’t ask for much more than this. While both the Chiefs and Bills are flawed, each are capable of winning it all. But only one team can, and it could come down to the heavyweight battle of star quarterbacks.

Next Gen Stats Insight for Ravens-Bills (via NFL Pro): The Ravens lost a total of -36.7% in net win probability on turnovers in their loss to the Bills. They lost -5.9% win probability on an interception by Taylor Rapp intended for Rashod Bateman, -19.3% win probability on Damar Hamlin's strip sack, and -11.5% win probability on Mark Andrews’ fumble recovered by Terrel Bernard.

NFL Research: Josh Allen has seven playoff rushing TDs in 12 playoff games, adding two on Sunday against the Ravens. He is now tied for second all-time for QB rushing TDs in the postseason with Tom Brady, who did it in 48 playoff games. Steve Young (eight) leads the way, doing it in 22 postseason games.