You have lineup questions, we have lineup answers -- at least we hope so. Start 'Em, Sit 'Em is here to help fantasy managers make difficult roster decisions. And you know what is a good move? Starting Justin Jefferson. But that's too obvious, so you won't see such simple analysis here. Instead, we're exploring more debatable situations. And if you can't find a player you are looking for, please check out the latest NFL Fantasy lineup rankings. Unless otherwise noted, all stats come from NFL Pro, Next Gen Stats or NFL Research.
Start 'Em
There was once a time when Mahomes was far too obvious to include here. This season, though, he has routinely found himself in the “sit” category. But if we cannot trust Mahomes in good matchups, why is he still on your roster? Mahomes is coming off his best fantasy game of the season, throwing for 262 yards and two touchdowns against the Raiders to help him score just over 18 fantasy points. He still finished outside the top 15 at the position, but the production is headed in the right direction. This week is all about the matchup, as the Bucs have allowed the most fantasy points per game to QBs this season, while giving up the third-most yards and pass TDs to the position. The perennial Pro Bowler can be started this week.
Seattle has struggled on defense this season, both against the run and pass. Over the last five games, the Seahawks have allowed four QBs to score 19.8 fantasy points or more. All but one threw multiple passing TDs against them, and all but one finished as the QB5 on the week. Stafford has enjoyed success against the 'Hawks, topping 330 passing yards in two of four games he has faced them as a Ram. This is not just about the matchup, though. Stafford threw more pass TDs last week than in his first six games combined. His 279 pass yards were his second-most in a game this season. Stafford and the Rams offense greatly benefit when Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are healthy. The veteran QB can be started this week.
Darnold has been consistent, throwing multiple passing touchdowns in five of seven games this season. He has steadily finished with roughly 18 fantasy points and shown to have a safe floor outside of the Week 5 London game against the Jets. And this week, Darnold has a favorable matchup. The Colts rank in the top 10 in fantasy PPG allowed to quarterbacks this season. They have yielded the seventh-most passing yards and generate pressure at a below-average rate. Trusting Darnold is also about trusting Kevin O’Connell and Minnesota's weapons -- which could include tight end T.J. Hockenson on Sunday night. Darnold is a safe-floor QB with some upside this week.
There are certainly a lot more Bo-lievers these days. I was late to the party, but I did begin to take notice when Nix started using his legs. The next step I need to see is more consistent passing stats. I don’t think Nix is at that point yet, but he did throw for a season-high 284 yards and three touchdowns in last week’s win. He also has logged multiple passing TDs in three of his last four games. His running ability has been on full display with four rushing TDs this season and five games with at least 25 rushing yards. Three times, he has topped 45 rushing yards. It is partly why he has scored 20-plus fantasy points in three of his last four contests. Now he faces the Ravens, who have allowed the most passing yards, passing touchdowns and third-most fantasy PPG to QBs in 2024. Nix should definitely be in play this week.
Last week was disappointing for Williams. In this space, I’m not talking about the Hail Mary, but rather the fantasy flop in a good matchup. He gets another shot to get right this week against the Cardinals, who have allowed the sixth-most passing yards, seventh-most fantasy PPG and third-highest completion percentage to opposing QBs in 2024. Within the the last five games, the Cardinals gave up 349 pass yards to Justin Herbert and four touchdown passes to Jordan Love, while Jayden Daniels finished as a top-five fantasy QB. Williams’ 9.3-point effort against the Commanders doesn’t bury the fact that he had been playing very good football, showing he’s capable of producing in a good matchup. He remains in play this week.
Sit 'Em
This one is a bit spicy. Goff has performed extremely well of late, and this isn’t about him playing on the road. This is about Goff playing outdoors for the first time this season. He has averaged around 13 fantasy PPG in outdoor games since joining the Lions in 2021. Since then, he has averaged over 18 fantasy PPG when playing indoors. But at Lambeau Field in that span, Goff has averaged 227 pass yards per game with three TDs and two INTs in those three contests. Plus, the Packers have allowed the eighth-fewest fantasy PPG to QBs. Goff is not a must-sit, but if you have another option you feel comfortable with, take it.
Nico Collins suffered an injury early on in Week 5 and has spent the ensuing weeks on IR. Including that Week 5 contest, Stroud has averaged just 13 fantasy PPG in games without his top receiver and has one TD or less in three of those four contests. I thought he would bounce back last week against Indianapolis. Instead, he had his first game against the Colts without multiple touchdowns. Now, he will also be without Stefon Diggs, who is out for the season with a torn ACL, on a short week in a very tough matchup against the Jets, who have allowed the third-fewest passing yards and just six passing touchdowns in eight games. Gang Green has given up the sixth-fewest fantasy PPG to QBs. It is OK to get away from Stroud, given his banged-up receiving corps and the matchup.
The best version of Dak Prescott this season is when the Cowboys are down by multiple scores late. That is a problem. Prescott has logged one big fantasy game performance, and it came largely in garbage time against the Ravens. He has scored fewer than 17 fantasy points in every other game. In his last two contests, he has scored fewer than 17 fantasy points combined. He is not running at all and does not have a game with more than two passing TDs. Now he gets the Falcons, who have a defense that poses a middle-of-the-pack matchup. But given how little production we have seen from Dak, how can you trust him right now? If you have another option, take it.
It is awesome having Tua back and healthy. Not only is Tagovailoa such an easy player to root for, but his presence lifts all Dolphins offensive players in fantasy football. Unfortunately, it does not always translate to his own fantasy success. Last week, he scored just 14.7 fantasy points in his return. He has not reached 19 fantasy points in a game this season, and let’s not forget he was the fantasy QB23 in the second half of last season. But this is more about his struggles in matchups against the Bills. Tua threw for 145 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions before getting injured against them in Week 2. He has faced the Bills eight times in his career and has thrown multiple passing TDs just once. He has seven TDs and 10 interceptions in those games. Just twice has he cracked 240 passing yards vs. Buffalo. Get away from Tua in this matchup.
Just a name, not fantasy production. I have said that a lot about Patrick Mahomes this season. It also applies to Aaron Rodgers. The Jets passer has topped 17 fantasy points three times this season -- two of which came against the lowly Patriots. Rodgers has yet to throw for 300 yards in a game and has been held below 250 passing yards in five of eight games. Next up: the Texans, who have allowed the seventh-fewest passing yards to QBs and have issued a 53 percent completion rate, the lowest in the NFL. The hope in starting him this week is that he throws multiple TD passes, but he has yet to toss more than two in any game as a Jet. You can get away from a banged-up Rodgers on a short week.
