You have lineup questions, we have lineup answers -- at least we hope so. Start 'Em, Sit 'Em is here to help fantasy managers make difficult roster decisions. And you know what is a good move? Starting Justin Jefferson. But that's too obvious, so you won't see such simple analysis here. Instead, we're exploring more debatable situations. And if you can't find a player you are looking for, please check out the latest NFL Fantasy lineup rankings. Unless otherwise noted, all stats come from NFL Pro, Next Gen Stats or NFL Research.
Start 'Em
In the spirit of Halloween, "Scary Terry" continues to show out. He has averaged 18.0 fantasy PPG since Week 3, enjoying four games with 98-plus receiving yards in that span. His QB is an MVP candidate, and it has directly translated into McLaurin being a fantasy star. Not to mention, he routinely eats against the rival Giants, averaging 16.6 fantasy PPG in 10 career games against them. Three times, he's topped 24 -- and in all but two, he's scored at least 13. Plus, the G-Men have allowed the highest passer rating when targeted to receivers out wide. They're also top four in completion percentage and yards per attempt on passes to those receivers.
Outside of one big game, it has been a disappointing fantasy season for Moore. He's been held to fewer than 30 receiving yards in three of his last four games. However, I think this is a week you stick with him, as the Cardinals have struggled against receivers who line up out wide. They have issued the fifth-highest passer rating when targeted and yards per attempt to outside WRs, as well as the second-highest completion percentage. The Cards are in the top 10 in fantasy PPG allowed to the position. The upside keeps Moore in play.
Buffalo's passing attack has been resurgent over the last couple of games. Coleman has 195 yards with a touchdown in that span, while Shakir has turned 17 targets into 172 yards. Cooper has provided mixed results in his first two games with a new team, but he ran just two fewer routes than the other two wideouts last week. Cooper is getting up to speed in the Bills' offense and brings a high ceiling. Plus, in 14 career meetings with the Dolphins, Josh Allen has averaged 275 pass yards per game and thrown for 37 touchdowns (2.6 per game). Shakir has been the best vs. zone, and the Dolphins use zone at the seventh-highest rate. All three WRs are in play this week.
Watching McConkey last week reminded me of what I saw on his Georgia tape. I loved Ladd as a prospect -- he was my favorite receiver after the Big Three in this year's draft class. Last week might have been his breakout game, with 111 yards and two scores, but he has been heavily involved in the Bolts' passing game for a while, receiving at least six targets in all but one game this season. Now he gets the Browns, who have allowed the sixth-most fantasy PPG to receivers. They also use man at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL, and McConkey ranks fifth in the NFL in yards vs. man. Start him.
I am a self-proclaimed Calvin Ridley stan, so his recent usage has excited me. In Tennessee's last three games, he has eight, nine and 15(!) targets. He exploded last week with 22.6 fantasy points -- and now has the chance to build on that in a good matchup against the Patriots, who rank in the top 10 when it comes to most fantasy points allowed to receivers. They have given up the third-most yards on deep passes and ninth-most yards to outside receivers. Understand, the floor is low ... but the ceiling is quite high! Ridley has a very favorable schedule moving forward, so if he's on another roster, you might want to try to buy low while you can.
I might be going out on a limb a bit here, as the Chargers have been an extremely hard matchup for receivers this season. However, over the last two weeks, Tillman has 21 targets, 15 catches, 180 yards and two touchdowns. He is second in targets and air yards in that span. Yeah, he has fully taken over the Amari Cooper role in this offense, which suddenly looks far more potent with Jameis Winston at quarterback. In the last two games, Tillman leads the Browns in targets and yards against zone coverage, which is important because the Chargers use zone 80 percent of the time, the fifth-highest rate in the NFL. This is an upside shot worth taking.
Sit 'Em
This is a bold call because Flowers has been running pretty hot and is tied to one of the best offenses (and QBs) in the NFL. The matchup scares me, though. The Broncos have allowed the eighth-fewest yards to receivers. Flowers also runs two-thirds of his routes out wide, where he is sure to see plenty of Patrick Surtain II. These Broncos have shut down plenty of big-name receivers, including Mike Evans, Garrett Wilson, DK Metcalf and George Pickens. Not to mention, Baltimore might have some sorting out to do in the passing game, with the trade acquisition of Diontae Johnson. Flowers is not a must-sit this week, but if you have another option you like, I advise avoiding this matchup.
Receivers are moving fast around the NFL! As noted just above, Johnson was traded from the Panthers to the Ravens on Tuesday, which gives him just a few days to learn a new offense before facing one of the best secondaries in the NFL. In recent weeks, we saw this happen with Amari Cooper and DeAndre Hopkins and they both played about a third of the snaps in their first game with the new team. Johnson will join a Ravens squad that has a lot of options on offense, so it might take him a bit of time to earn consistent volume. Plus, it is a tough matchup for all the reasons listed above in the Zay Flowers blurb.
With Chris Godwin and Mike Evans out this past week, McMillan was the clear-cut top receiver for the Buccaneers. He led all Tampa Bay WRs in routes and targets (seven), but he was behind tight end Cade Otton in the larger passing-game pecking order. While the thought before the season was that McMillan would primarily operate from the slot, the third-round rookie has actually run 72 percent of his routes from out wide. That is a problem for Monday night's game in Kansas City, as the Chiefs have allowed the fewest yards to outside receivers. Opposing quarterbacks have managed just a 63.2 passer rating and 48 percent completion rate when targeting WRs aligned out wide vs. K.C. In total, the Chiefs have yielded the seventh-fewest fantasy PPG to receivers.
In order to score fantasy points, a receiver needs to get open and be thrown the ball. In order to be trusted in fantasy, that must happen on a consistent basis. That just has not been the case for Addison. He has four targets or fewer in four of his five games this season. It is why he has reached double digits in fantasy points just once. The floor is quite low, and without touchdowns, there really isn't much upside. It is a favorable matchup, but I would still leave the infrequently-used Addison on the bench.
This is a good matchup for Chicago receivers, as chronicled above in the DJ Moore blurb. However, the usage just has not been there for Odunze. In five games with both Moore and Keenan Allen in the lineup, the rookie has seen just 21 targets, which equates to about four per game. He has been held to single digits in all but one game this season. (Yes, that big performance came with Allen sidelined.) The floor is too low, and we have yet to see any upside if the other two WRs are out there. Get away.
