Eleven weeks in the books, six more to go! We're on to Week 12 … and it's packed with storylines. To better understand and decipher them, NFL Pro has a wealth of data and insights, carefully curated to highlight what matters most in each game. And in the world of fantasy football, we need every advantage we can get.
Here are four of those storylines, with all the relevant NFL Pro insights and the fantasy fallout we can expect this weekend.
Daniel Jones & the Colts play-action attack against the Chiefs defense
While the Chiefs pass defense has been largely solid this season — ninth in NFL Pro's overall passing defense efficiency — they are dead last in the metric defending against the play-action pass. Kansas City has surrendered an NFL-high 0.41 EPA/dropback, 63.5% success rate and 81.2% completion rate on play action (with a +7.6 completion percentage over expected), as well as 11.0 yards per attempt (second-most). They've only allowed one touchdown on play-action passes, but that's largely due to a lack of volume faced (69 attempts, sixth-fewest).
Enter the Indianapolis Colts, who have used play action at the second-highest rate in the league. The only team running play action more than Indy is the Rams, and Shane Steichen's unit has recorded a 57.1% success rate (fifth-highest) on those dropbacks. Daniel Jones leads the entire NFL with 1,017 play-action passing yards, and no one else outside of Matthew Stafford has eclipsed 1,000. This makes a lot of sense in the context of Jonathan Taylor's dominance and the fear he strikes into defenses — if Steve Spagnuolo's defense sells out to stop the All-Pro back, Jones and the passing game could thrive on Sunday.
Fantasy Fallout: Kansas City's defense is generally strong, so this one weakness may not be enough to make Daniel Jones a must-start fantasy play this week. Still, it gives him and the Colts an avenue for success, and makes Jones and his pass-catchers a little more viable than the "red matchup" in your fantasy app might indicate.
Jalen Hurts and the deep ball against the suspect Cowboys secondary
The Eagles offense has been … confusing and inconsistent in 2025. They seem to go on small multi-game spurts of good and bad, and they're currently coming off back-to-back "bads." Jalen Hurts has totaled just 318 passing yards and one touchdown throw since the Week 9 bye, and Philly scored just 26 points combined in those two games. However, the cure to all offensive woes, they say, is the Cowboys defense. (Or at least the Cowboys defense before Quinnen Williams and Logan Wilson, whose debuts against the Raiders on Monday night looked impressive.) On the year, Dallas is NFL Pro's 28th-ranked overall passing defense, and they're specifically dead last against deep passes. The Cowboys have allowed 699 yards and nine touchdowns on deep balls this year — no other team has surrendered more than 600 yards or six TDs.
Meanwhile, despite the inconsistencies, the Eagles passing offense ranks third in NFL Pro efficiency on the deep pass. Hurts leads the NFL with 685 passing yards on deep balls and has a 128.6 passer rating on those throws (third among qualified QBs), with seven touchdowns and zero interceptions. We are getting quite literally the most productive deep passer in the game against the softest deep-pass defense in the game. That bodes well for a Philadelphia bounce-back, for Hurts' passing totals and for both A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, who form the entirety of the Eagles' downfield air assault. It's also unlikely that the Eagles will be able to win with fewer than 20 points — as they have the last two weeks — against Dallas, so we can also expect higher passing volume and a bit more scoring in this contest.
Fantasy Fallout: Start your Eagles and start them with confidence. Hurts, Brown and Smith should all be high-end fantasy plays in what should be an explosive matchup this weekend.
The Patriots RB duo against Cincinnati's porous run defense
Over the last two weeks, only one running back has more fantasy points than TreVeyon Henderson (De'Von Achane) and no one has scored more rushing touchdowns (four). Now, those two games came in the absence of Rhamondre Stevenson, who had previously led the backfield in carries and touchdowns, and Stevenson is expected to return on Sunday against the Bengals. So Mike Vrabel and Josh McDaniels' plans for the volume split between the two backs will be one of the more intriguing storylines of the week. That said, it may not matter all that much against the Cincy defense.
The Bengals are 31st in NFL Pro's overall rush defense efficiency and have allowed the most fantasy points to running backs this season … by far. They've given up 307 rushing yards over expected and a 45.1% success rate on the ground (both fifth-most in the league) and have allowed 13 running backs to top 14+ fantasy points … in 10 games. We saw at least 14 points from both members of the Steelers duo (Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell), Jaguars duo (Travis Etienne and Bhayshul Tuten) and Lions duo (Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery). And the Patriots are heavily favored in Week 12, with a projected team point total of nearly 30 points. Barring extremely strange circumstances, Henderson and Stevenson should both run all over this defense on Sunday.
Fantasy Fallout: Whichever back gets the lead role — and I'm leaning tentatively towards Henderson — should be a bona-fide RB1 this week, while the other could still be productive enough to start in fantasy lineups. Keep your ear to the beat report and the coaches' comments for clues, but don't hesitate to start either guy on Sunday.
Christian Watson's chances at a breakout game against Minnesota
After his two touchdown game against the Giants last week, you may have snatched up Christian Watson in your fantasy league … only to find he has a "red matchup" in the Vikings this week and hesitate. Here's the good news: while Minnesota has been generally good against wide receivers, they have a glaring weakness against the deep ball. They're NFL Pro's 31st-ranked defense on deep passes, allowing a 143.8 passer rating that's easily the highest in the league, more than 12 points higher than the Commanders (next-highest). Opponents have completed 60% of deep attempts against Minnesota (highest in the league), with five touchdowns and zero interceptions. A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Jameson Williams all had 35+ yards and at least one TD on deep throws against this defense, with both Eagles topping 100 such yards in their Week 7 meeting.
Meanwhile, Watson has seen 20+ air yards on a whopping 47.1% of his targets, the second-highest rate in the league by any receiver with 15+ total targets (Tyquan Thornton is number one). With his consistent weekly target count since getting healthy in Week 8, that statistically translates to two deep targets a game, and against Minnesota at least one of those should hit for a big play. If that big play goes for a 30- or 40-yard touchdown, Watson would instantly validate anyone bold enough to start him. If he can put together a few more plays in an offense looking for a spark (and possibly missing Josh Jacobs), Watson could be a sneaky WR2 with upside this weekend.
Fantasy Fallout: You're not forcing Watson into lineups this week, but if you have a need in a WR3 or flex spot, I believe you can play him with unusual confidence in this matchup. He's also a good DFS option in tournaments where you're looking for upside.
