Thirteen weeks in the books, four more to go in the fantasy season! We're on to Week 14, and it's full of exciting storylines! To better understand and decipher these storylines, NFL Pro has a wealth of data and insights, carefully curated to highlight what matters most in each game. And in the world of fantasy football, we need every advantage we can get.
Here are four of the biggest insights to know, with all the relevant NFL Pro context and the fantasy fallout we can expect!
Dak driving the ball deep to his dynamic duo in Detroit
On the year, Dak Prescott air yards per attempt of 7.8 is quite average, as is his deep throw rate of 10.3%. But when the Cowboys QB does throw deep, his completion rate over expected of +10.2% ranks fourth in the league and his EPA/dropback of 0.63 ranks fifth. And thanks to the overall volume of the Cowboys passing attack, only Sam Darnold and Jalen Hurts have more deep passing yards than Prescott's 696 in 2025. Unsurprisingly, his elite duo of CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens have thrived downfield as well: Lamb's 325 yards on deep targets is second-most in the NFL behind Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Pickens' 227 yards is eighth-most.
Enter the Detroit defense, which has allowed the second-most deep passing yards in the league (behind only the Cowboys themselves). No team has drawn more deep attempts than the Lions, only the Giants have allowed more deep completions and Detroit's 0.70 EPA/dropback surrendered on deep throws is the sixth-highest on the season. In a game with an extremely high projected point total, in a dome, between these two offenses, you can expect fireworks from the opening kickoff. And given the propensity of Prescott's passing and Detroit's defense, those fireworks will likely come deep down the field early and often.
Fantasy Fallout: At this point, Prescott, Lamb and Pickens are all must-start fantasy assets in typical leagues, but this is a reminder of just how good they can be in this matchup. If you're playing against them, you may need to build your lineup for upside. And if you're assembling a DFS lineup, consider this crew as your core.
Chase Brown (and Samaje Perine) against the Bills' struggling run defense
It's been quite the resurgence for Chase Brown, who started the year averaging 33.7 rushing yards and just 9.7 fantasy points per game through the first six weeks. Since Week 7 — more or less the post-Jake Browning era — Brown has instead averaged 83.7 rushing yards and 18.1 fantasy points per game (making him the RB7 over that span). He's topped 100+ scrimmage yards in all six games over that span, and in his only truly soft matchup all year (against the Jets in Week 8), he scored two touchdowns and finished with 25.5 fantasy points. Also, sneakily, Samaje Perine has logged 154 scrimmage yards and a TD on 26 touches in his last two healthy games (Weeks 8 and 13), despite missing a month in between with an ankle injury.
Now, the Cincy duo draws a matchup with a disaster of a Bills run defense. Buffalo has allowed the third-most rushing yards per game (113.3) and the most rushing touchdowns (15) to running backs all season. While they managed to hold Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell to modest performance on Sunday, it was just a few weeks ago that they surrendered consecutive 30-burgers to De'Von Achane and Sean Tucker. Back in Week 6, they gave up 35.8 fantasy points to Bijan Robinson while also allowing Tyler Allgeier to score 10.8. They are currently NFL Pro's third-worst defense in defensive efficiency against designed runs and fifth-worst in overall rushing efficiency. Only the Giants are allowing more rushing yards per carry and no team is allowing more yards after contact per carry than Buffalo at 4.2 — nearly as high as the league average for total yards per carry (4.35).
Fantasy Fallout: Brown isn't just an RB1 this week, he's a contender for the RB1 overall with a very strong chance to score his first touchdown (or two) since Week 8. But if you're feeling frisky (or looking for a cheap DFS option), Perine is also a sleeper play with a shot at double-digit touches.
Caleb Williams scrambling against Micah Parsons and the Packers front
According to NFL Pro, the Bears have the third-highest QB scramble efficiency of any offense in the NFL, with Caleb Williams logging the fifth-most scramble rushing yards of any quarterback in 2025. His 92 rushing yards over expected are second-most to only Justin Herbert, and his 74.3% success rate on scrambles is the highest in the league by any QB with at least 10 scrambles. It's a big part of his game, as is throwing on the move and on extended plays — he ranks top three in pass attempts in both categories this season.
But a big part of the Packers' game is limiting QB scrambles … they're NFL Pro's top-ranked defense in the metric entering Week 14. No team has allowed fewer rushing yards (108) or rushing yards over expected (-40) on scrambles than Green Bay all season, and their 5.7 yards allowed per scramble is third-lowest behind only the Raiders and Broncos. They're also one of just seven teams that hasn't allowed a single passing touchdown on scrambles this season. And with Micah Parsons leading their pass rush, they're both pressuring and sacking quarterbacks at a top-10 rate. This will be a tough challenge for the somewhat hot-and-cold Williams at Lambeau Field on Sunday … where it will in fact be freezing cold (sub-20 degrees) with a slight chance of snow.
Fantasy Fallout: Williams has been one of the most sporadically good-or-bad fantasy quarterbacks in the league this year, and this isn't setting up to be one of the goods, with Green Bay excelling against his playstyle, and potentially inclement weather to boot. He drops well outside one-QB starter range and his equally inconsistent pass-catchers will be hard to play with confidence in Week 14.
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs against the NFL's No. 1 defense
Coming off an absolute barnburner of a loss against the Cowboys, in which he threw for 261 yards and four touchdowns, Patrick Mahomes could not be getting a more polar-opposite matchup in Week 14. The Texans are, quite frankly, terrifying. They rank first in NFL Pro's overall passing defense efficiency, as well as against play action, short passes, long passing, passing without pressure and passing without a blitz. They've surrendered the league's lowest passer rating (74.2), allowed an awful 12-to-12 touchdown-to-interception ratio and held opponents to -0.20 EPA/dropback, the lowest mark in the league. No QB has cracked 20 fantasy points against Houston, and fantasy studs like Josh Allen and Matthew Stafford both fell short of 14 points in this matchup.
Will all that be enough to stop Mahomes? He and the Chiefs rank third in overall offensive passing efficiency on NFL Pro and hold the number one spot against pressure. The former MVP has scored 22+ fantasy points in eight games this season … but he did struggle in the matchup most similar to Houston, with 13.34 points against Denver in Week 11. He's also thrown one or fewer touchdown pass in three of his last four games, but bracketed those three games with three or more TDs on repeat. His and Kansas City's best bet will be diagnosing and beating the pressure brought by Will Anderson Jr. and the Texans pass rush, but it will be a tall task with Derek Stingley Jr. and company roaming on the back end.
Fantasy Fallout: Mahomes has ultimately been too good too often to sit him for just any streamer, even given the horrible matchup. But if you have another strong option, like Jared Goff against Dallas, it might be worth considering. Also, expect Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce to rack up catches in the short area as Mahomes looks for his quick outlets against pressure.
