Six simple truths heading into NFL Week 8: Chiefs' offense meeting expectations again

In The First Read, Jeffri Chadiha provides a snapshot of the hottest stories and trends heading into Week 8 of the 2025 NFL season, including:

• Top three risers/sliders from Week 7
• Three games worthy of NFL Pro deep dives
• Most intriguing game of Week 8
• Way-too-early MVP rankings

But to kick things off, a glance at six simple truths that have come to fruition heading into Week 8...

The NFL season is flying by. We're already on the cusp of wrapping up Week 7, and it feels like we just got this thing started. This is what happens when every week is filled with wild finishes, crazy rallies and constant conversations about all the things we didn't see coming. Let's face it: This is just one of those years in the league, when trying to make constant predictions can get you in trouble in a hurry.

This edition of The First Read wants to focus on that uncertainty. There is so much of that happening right now that it's difficult to trust what you see. That's why the theme this week is how important it is to trust your gut on some things, even in this environment. We're talking about simple truths. Here are some that should be apparent seven weeks into this season …

1) It's been a long time since we've seen this much parity in the league. You'd have to go back at least two decades to find a time when there were so many teams worthy of contending for playoff spots in both conferences. By this writer's count, there are only about six teams that you could confidently write off as headed toward drafting high in next year's draft (the Jets, Dolphins, Browns, Titans, Raiders and Saints). Then there's a handful of teams that have stumbled out to dreadful starts but are better than their records suggest (the Giants, Ravens, Cardinals, Bengals and Texans). Everybody else after that has shown the potential to be playing meaningful football in January. What's even more noteworthy is that not one of these squads can be classified as dominant yet.

We've spent the last few years knowing what teams deserved to be standard bearers. The Chiefs have won three of the last six Super Bowls and played in five. The Eagles (two championships in eight years), Rams (Super Bowl winners in 2021), Buccaneers (2020 champs) and 49ers (two Super Bowls and four NFC title appearances between 2019 and 2023) have enjoyed their dominant stretches. Of course, the Patriots controlled much of the 2000s and 2010s. Now? You have a lot of teams that would be considered B+ to B- if you were grading. There may be some A grades in the mix once we reach the postseason, but even the best teams are flawed. That means a bit of advice worth taking is to not spend too much time overhyping some teams (as happened with the Packers and Chargers early) or writing off others (like the Patriots and Jaguars) that have improved quickly. They're all going through their own growing pains. We'll see who's worthy of qualifying for the postseason in due time.

2) The usual suspects will be there come January. It's a good time to address this topic, since we're talking about parity. Another suggestion: Don't read too much into the struggles of teams that have consistently been good. Yes, the Ravens probably aren't going to pull off some miraculous turnaround now that they're 1-5, even with quarterback Lamar Jackson returning from a hamstring injury sometime in the near future. As for the other teams that we've grown accustomed to seeing in the playoffs, they'll be just fine. The Bills have too comfortable a schedule to allow their defensive problems to keep them from competing for the top seed in the AFC. The Eagles have the talent to resolve their offensive issues and make another run at the Super Bowl. The Chargers have come back to earth after a 3-0 start, but they'll be better once -- surprise -- an assortment of injured players return to the field. The same is true of the Lions, who are dealing with a slew of health problems in their secondary. Let's also remember the 49ers, Vikings and Commanders have played without their starting quarterbacks. All these teams have smart coaches and strong veteran leadership. They aren't going anywhere.

3) The Chiefs' offense is finally meeting expectations again. It's been nearly three years since we could say that about Kansas City. This offense went from being electric in the early days of the partnership between quarterback Patrick Mahomes and head coach Andy Reid to being fairly pedestrian in 2023 and '24. The contributing factors were obvious -- inconsistency and injuries at receiver coupled with offensive line woes -- but the Chiefs finally are back to being scary on that side of the ball. This team has scored over 30 points in three of its last four games, including a 31-0 bashing of Las Vegas on Sunday. To put that into perspective, Kansas City hit the 30-point mark only six times in the previous two seasons combined (including the postseason). The difference today is substantial. The offensive line is sturdier, for one thing. Even with the mysterious absence of rookie left tackle Josh Simmons over the last two games, the Chiefs are giving Mahomes more protection than he's had in a long time. Mahomes also finally has his full assortment of weapons together, as wide receiver Rashee Rice returned from a six-game suspension this week and second-year receiver Xavier Worthy has looked crisp since missing nearly three full games with a shoulder separation. Kansas City could only muster a total of 60 combined points in its first three games with those two out. They've been rolling ever since, and the rest of the AFC is officially on notice.

4) Ben Johnson is on to something in Chicago. Admit it: There was some snickering when Chicago stumbled out to a 0-2 start that included a 31-point beatdown at Detroit in Week 2. For all the hype hovering around Johnson's hiring and his opportunity to work with quarterback Caleb Williams, it felt like reality was setting in quick for that franchise. This fix wasn't going to be as easy as some imagined. Well, just as we've mentioned earlier in this column, things have a way of changing fast around this league right now. The Bears have won four straight games, and what's most encouraging is that Johnson is finding the right pieces to fit around Williams. The defense has produced a league-high 16 takeaways. Running back D'Andre Swift has become a more explosive weapon lately, as he's produced 100-yard rushing efforts in his last two games. You can diminish what the Bears have done because of the schedule -- they beat the Cowboys, Raiders and Commanders before taking down the Saints on Sunday -- but you can only play who they put in front of you. The Bears have three more winnable games on the immediate horizon (against the Ravens, Bengals and Giants), so this could be the start of a serious winning streak for a team that is tied for second place in the NFC North with Detroit. Now, to be fair, they're still dealing with a division that is filled with real contenders. The only difference today is the gap between those squads and Chicago doesn't feel so sizable anymore.

5) The Cowboys are the most entertaining team in football. There isn't a team in the league that has created more reasons to keep people watching this season than Dallas. It has scored at least 40 points three times already this season -- including Sunday's 44-22 win over Washington -- and racked up 37 in a Week 5 win over the Jets. The Cowboys' defense is so lousy that almost every game they play has the potential of turning into a shootout. Dallas already has played two of the wildest games of the year (a 40-37 overtime win over the Giants and a 40-40 tie with the Packers) and it's likely going to play a few more roller-coaster affairs, judging from the schedule. The Lions, Chiefs, Vikings, Eagles and Chargers are among the list of opponents capable of lighting up that defense and forcing head coach Brian Schottenheimer to use every last trick he knows to score points. Then there are the storylines. Owner Jerry Jones traded star linebacker Micah Parsons to Green Bay before the season, so that Packers game was all about revenge. Panthers running back Rico Dowdle also wanted some get-back from the Cowboys a week ago -- he wasn't happy with the team letting him walk in free agency after five seasons -- and he hit that Dallas defense for 239 scrimmage yards. You basically know you're getting something watchable whenever you tune in to see this team this fall. The return of wide receiver CeeDee Lamb from injury only means there's more fun coming down the road.

6) The NFC South is better than advertised. Last week, the AFC South was mentioned as a winner in this space, largely because it had become relevant again. This week, it's time for the NFC South to take a bow. This division has been so light on competition for the last few years that Tampa Bay has won it four consecutive times. The difference today is these other teams are starting to grow up. The Carolina Panthers are 4-3 and riding a three-game winning streak after Sunday's victory over the Jets. There's a legitimate concern about how they'll handle an ankle injury that knocked quarterback Bryce Young out of that contest, but the big story is that Carolina hasn't had a winning record this late in a season in six years. The Atlanta Falcons also have turned heads recently, even after falling to 3-3 with a Sunday night loss to San Francisco. The Falcons beat the Commanders and Bills after starting the season with an offense that was so bad that it got second-year quarterback Michael Penix Jr. benched at the end of one game and wide receivers coach Ike Hilliard fired. The Falcons are playing better on that side of the football, but the revelation has been their defense. That unit has gone from being one of the league's worst to being one of its best. Of course, the Buccaneers are still thriving because of the play of quarterback Baker Mayfield. He's the biggest reason why a slew of injuries to star players hasn't slowed that team one bit. Tampa should be the favorite to take this division again because most of those stars will return. It just won't be as easy as it's been the last few years to stay on top.

THREE UP

THREE DOWN

WORTHY OF NFL PRO DEEP DIVES

1. Broncos over Giants. This game features three lead changes in the final two minutes, with Denver overcoming a 19-point deficit to find victory on a game-winning kick from Wil Lutz.
2. Bengals over Steelers. Joe Flacco gives his new team renewed hope and a last-minute win over a hated division rival.
3. Packers over Cardinals. Josh Jacobs scores the game-winning touchdown in the final two minutes of this back-and-forth affair.

MOST INTRIGUING GAME OF WEEK 8

MVP WATCH

A simple ranking of the top five candidates, which will be updated weekly, depending on performance. Here is how it stands heading into Week 8 (with DraftKings odds as of 2 a.m. ET on Monday, Oct. 20):

EXTRA POINT

My slowly evolving Super Bowl pick, which also will be updated each week, depending on performances: Bills over Lions.

Previous picks:

• Week 6: Bills over Lions
• Week 5: Bills over Eagles
• Week 4: Bills over Eagles
• Week 3: Bills over Eagles
• Week 2: Bills over Packers
• Week 1: Ravens over Packers

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