In The First Read, Jeffri Chadiha provides a snapshot of the hottest stories and trends heading into Week 6 of the 2024 NFL season, including:
But to kick things off, a look at seven simple truths that have come to fruition heading into Week 6 ...
Week 5 of this NFL season is just about finished and this much we already know: We're past the point of merely speculating about certain subjects. There's enough of a sample size out there for some teams and players -- it's time to make some hardcore declarations about what we've seen. This might be a project that frightens people who prefer more time to make assessments. We do The First Read on this site for exactly these types of opportunities.
We acknowledge that things can and do change over the course of a pro football season. There's also the reality that certain things don't. You don't have to wait until December to know that the Minnesota Vikings are real, that Washington Commanders rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels is special or that 0-2 starts are no longer the curses they used to be with a 16-game regular season. This is what we want to examine in this space -- all the simple truths that should be obvious to people who enjoy this sport on a weekly basis.
There are seven so far, by our count. Here they are …
1) Brian Flores has been the best assistant coach in the NFL his season. The Vikings defensive coordinator has been crushing it with a team that has yet to lose. The 5-0 Vikings have a top-five scoring defense that ranks second in the league in turnovers forced (13). They frustrated three top quarterbacks prior to Week 5 -- San Francisco's Brock Purdy, Houston's C.J. Stroud and Green Bay's Jordan Love -- and did the same thing to the New York Jets' Aaron Rodgers during Sunday’s win in London. That most recent victory should've given the viewing public a true sense of what Flores and his defenders have meant to Minnesota's success. Quarterback Sam Darnold suffered through his first tough game of this season, and it didn't matter one bit. The Vikings got a pick-six from OLB Andrew Van Ginkel and a game-clinching interception from cornerback Stephon Gilmore, who signed with the team in training camp. Now consider this: The Vikings were 28th in points allowed in 2022, the season before Flores arrived, and they improved to 13th last year before going to another level this fall. A lot of that success comes back to what he has unleashed.
2) The race for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year is locked up. Nobody is catching Jayden Daniels for this award -- not with the hot start he's jumped out to. Even the most optimistic Commanders fan couldn't have predicted this team would be sitting at 4-1 and in first place in the NFC East at this stage or that Daniels would be operating like the league's next superstar. Sunday’s win over Cleveland was a bit of an off day for him -- it's the first time he completed less than 71 percent of his passes in a game -- and Daniels still ran for 82 yards (to go along with 238 passing yards). It means even more that Daniels has been enjoying this success while playing with one of the worst defenses in the league. He knows this team needs to score a lot of points to win games. He's going out and generating that production every time he takes the field. In fact, the only question concerning Daniels by year's end will be how seriously he could contend for league MVP. He's been that good.
3) San Francisco's hold on the NFC is over. The 49ers came into this season with a lot of lingering problems, and they've found more through the first five weeks of action. They've had to deal with contract squabbles (with wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk and left tackle Trent Williams), unforeseeable adversity (the shooting of rookie wide receiver Ricky Pearsall), injuries (most notably the absence of All-Pro running back Christian McCaffrey) and poor on-field execution (their special teams had been lousy before Sunday's game). The result is a team that has been scuffling along through the start of this season. The 49ers sit at 2-3 and that's after a 24-23 home loss to Arizona that featured San Francisco blowing a 13-point halftime lead. We all understand that divisional games can be tough, but these 49ers haven't won a division or conference game all season. There are simply more impressive teams in the NFC, and the dominance that was San Francisco's trademark in 2023 has long since disappeared. It's true that you can never count out a Kyle Shanahan-coached team that has enjoyed so much success. It's also fair to say this team is a long way from resembling one that could return to the Super Bowl.
4) The old Deshaun Watson is never coming back. It's time to abandon those hopes. The Browns are off to a 1-4 start, and they just scored 13 points against one of the league's worst defenses in a 21-point loss to Washington. It's hard to see where things go from here, but it's safe to assume Watson isn't going to improve the situation. He hasn't thrown for more than 200 yards in any game this season and he's produced just five touchdown passes (with three interceptions). The bottom line is that this was never a great marriage of scheme and player. Cleveland head coach Kevin Stefanski prefers a play-action offense that relies on a strong run game to set the table for everything else. Watson is most effective as an improviser along the lines of Kansas City's Patrick Mahomes or Buffalo's Josh Allen. We also got a glimpse of what the Browns' offense could look like when Joe Flacco ran it late last season, and that will always be a major issue for Watson moving forward. What Flacco proved is the scheme can work quite well when the right quarterback is running it. Watson simply isn't that dude.
5) The Jets need Davante Adams more than any other contender. The deeper the Jets move into this season, the more apparent it is that quarterback Aaron Rodgers needs another weapon he can trust. That isn't to say the Jets don't have talented skill players. It's that they don't have enough who can play with the same type of innate connection to the quarterback that Adams enjoyed when he and Rodgers were together in Green Bay. Adams still has the ability to win off the line of scrimmage, and that's where he could be most helpful to Rodgers, especially if offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett is sticking with a system that relies mainly on allowing the quarterback to pick apart opposing defenses. Imagine if Adams was the receiver looking for that back-shoulder throw late in Sunday’s loss to Minnesota, instead of Mike Williams. Maybe that pass is completed, and the Jets find a way to win as opposed to watching Stephon Gilmore seal the contest with an interception. To be honest, the situation in New York is starting to feel a lot like the one Tampa Bay went through with Tom Brady in his first season. It wasn't until the Bucs acquired Antonio Brown and made some late-season scheme adjustments that the offense took off. The same could happen if the Jets can pull off the trade for Adams.
6) The NFC South isn't what we expected. No division faced lower expectations than the South, which is why it's nice to see it become more interesting this season. Kirk Cousins has quickly turned into the quarterback the Falcons were hoping to land when they signed him in free agency. They have three wins because he's led them on game-winning drives in each of those contests. Baker Mayfield has been a similarly impactful signal-caller in Tampa. He re-signed with the Buccaneers because he loved the fit with the franchise, and he's thrown 11 touchdown passes and just two interceptions for a team that is currently 3-2. Finally, the Saints may be the biggest surprise, just because of their offensive potential. They have a strong run game and new coordinator Klint Kubiak has understood how effective quarterback Derek Carr can be when he's protected. This is, after all, a team that had two losses by a total of five points and featured a top-10 scoring offense and defense entering Week 5's matchup with the Chiefs. These teams ultimately will tangle all season.
7) The NFC North IS what we expected. This is the only division where three teams legitimately look like they could reach the Super Bowl: Minnesota, Detroit and Green Bay. The fourth, Chicago, is rounding into form as rookie quarterback Caleb Williams starts to find more consistency and effectiveness in his game. He enjoyed his best performance in Sunday’s win over Carolina -- throwing for 304 yards and two touchdowns -- but he'll need more days like that just to stay close to the competition in this division. The Lions' offense has reached a new level with the emergence of speedy wide receiver Jameson Williams. The Packers have a bevy of weapons around quarterback Jordan Love and a revamped defense that leads the NFL in takeaways. Of course, there's also Minnesota. No team in football has played better through five weeks. So, this is the reality for Chicago: The Bears have a tough defense and an improving quarterback, but it's also not likely that the NFC North will put four teams into the postseason. At least one will end up disappointed by how things play out.
THREE UP
Denver's defense has been salty all year, with Surtain being a major reason for that. He’s been tremendous the last few weeks -- including locking up standout receivers like the Buccaneers' Mike Evans and Jets’ Garrett Wilson -- and he picked up two interceptions in Sunday’s win over the Raiders, returning one 100 yards for a touchdown. The Broncos are still trying to figure out what they can be offensively with rookie quarterback Bo Nix. They already know what they have on the other side of the football, as Surtain and Riley Moss comprise one of the best cornerback duos in the league.
For all the criticism the Giants quarterback has faced throughout his career, he deserves some love for the way he’s been playing. New York has won two of its last three games after a 0-2 start, and Sunday’s win in Seattle was easily the highlight. Jones completed 23 of his 34 passes for 257 yards and two touchdowns. Just as noteworthy, he did it without his best receiver (rookie Malik Nabers) and in a situation when his team needed to avoid a fourth loss in five games. Apparently, Danny Dimes ain’t done after all.
The Jaguars rookie has shown plenty of potential, but he went to another level on Sunday, helping Jacksonville win its first game of the season. Thomas produced five receptions for 122 yards and scored on an 85-yard touchdown. He also provided ample reasons for why the ball needs to come his way more often in this offense. Thomas has led Jacksonville in receiving yards in three of the team’s five games. He’s the best big-play threat on the roster.
THREE DOWN
All the shine has fallen off the Bills’ 3-0 start, as tougher competition has revealed more flaws in McDermott’s team. First, Baltimore blasted them in a 25-point loss on Sunday Night Football. Then came this weekend, when McDermott admitted to mismanaging the clock at the end of a tied game at Houston. His willingness to let Josh Allen throw three times -- while pinned deep in his own territory and on a possession that started with 32 seconds left in regulation -- gave the Texans enough time to set up the game-winning field goal before time expired. McDermott has enjoyed a lot of great moments in Buffalo. The last two weeks have been far from his best work.
If you want to know how bad the Bengals' defense is, just consider this stat: Cincinnati has averaged 35 points over the last three games and has lost twice. Sunday’s home defeat to Baltimore had to be especially hard to watch. The Bengals gained 442 total yards but allowed 520 to the Ravens in a 41-38 overtime loss. Yes, Cincinnati should’ve won if a bobbled hold hadn’t ruined a game-winning field goal attempt by Evan McPherson. However, it would’ve never come down to that if the Bengals had managed more stops.
Raiders head coach Antonio Pierce benched Minshew in the third quarter of Sunday’s loss in Denver, and it will be interesting to see what the team does at quarterback moving forward. Minshew threw two interceptions -- including the pick-six to Patrick Surtain II -- in a game that Las Vegas initially led 10-0. His replacement, Aidan O’Connell, didn’t fare much better, as Denver blew the game open and went on to win by a score of 33-18. Minshew is the more accomplished player, but that doesn’t mean much. Pierce declined to name a starter for Week 6 after the loss.
WORTHY OF NFL PRO DEEP DIVES
- Falcons over Buccaneers (OT). Atlanta won a second straight game with an exciting finish, this time on a game-winning touchdown pass from Kirk Cousins to KhaDarel Hodge in overtime.
- Ravens over Bengals (OT). This AFC North showdown came down to overtime, as well, with both teams blowing late chances to win before Baltimore prevailed on a Justin Tucker field goal.
- Texans over Bills. Buffalo almost overcame a 17-point deficit, but Houston pulled out the win on a 59-yard field goal as time expired in regulation.
MOST INTRIGUING GAME OF WEEK 6
Washington has been one of the league’s biggest surprises early in the season, as it has posted four straight victories since a Week 1 loss at Tampa Bay. Baltimore has been hot, as well. The Ravens are riding a three-game win streak after starting the year 0-2. Both teams have exciting quarterbacks and plenty of momentum. In other words, the DMV will be rocking next weekend.
MVP WATCH
A simple ranking of the top five candidates, which will be updated weekly, depending on performance. Here is how it stands heading into Week 5 (with DraftKings odds as of 9 a.m. ET on Monday, Oct. 7):
- DraftKings odds: +1000
- Weeks in top five: 2
- Next game: at Ravens | Sunday, Oct. 13
- DraftKings odds: +1300
- Weeks in top five: 3
- Next game: vs. Lions | Sunday, Oct. 20
- DraftKings odds: +700
- Weeks in top five: 5
- Next game: at Patriots | Sunday, Oct. 13
- DraftKings odds: +600
- Weeks in top five: 5
- Next game: at Jets (MNF) | Monday, Oct. 14
- DraftKings odds: +600
- Weeks in top five: 3
- Next game: vs. Commanders | Sunday, Oct. 13
EXTRA POINT
My slowly evolving Super Bowl pick, which also will be updated each week, depending on performances: Ravens over Vikings.
Previous picks:
- Week 4: Bills over Vikings
- Week 3: Bills over Packers
- Week 2: Lions over Bengals
- Week 1: Lions over Texans
