Bills vs. Texans: Three must-know storylines for Thursday's Week 12 prime-time game

Thursday night's matchup between the Bills and Texans in Houston figures to have a big impact on the AFC’s playoff field.

The 7-3 Bills might still be chasing the Patriots for AFC East supremacy, but a victory Thursday would give Buffalo a 97% chance to make the playoffs. For Houston, there's more on the line, however. The 5-5 Texans enter the game with only a 30% playoff likelihood at this point. A win would bump those odds up to 45%, but a loss would push them down to 21%.

Houston's chances once again lie in the hands of Davis Mills, who's replacing the injured C.J. Stroud, seeking his third straight victory as the starter. Josh Allen has lost three of his four career starts against the Texans (including his first-ever playoff game) and must contend with a strong Houston defense, but he is coming off a six-touchdown performance in the Bills' big win over Tampa Bay on Sunday.

Three must-know storylines

1) Allen might have to put Bills on his back again

When they're on, the Bills can feature one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL behind Josh Allen. James Cook is also a true difference maker in the backfield who has taken over games behind a strong offensive line. The problem has been at wide receiver, where injuries and ineffectiveness have held the unit back at times. The Bills have ruled out tight end Dalton Kincaid (hamstring) and WRs Mecole Hardman (calf) and Curtis Samuel (elbow/neck). Keon Coleman's healthy scratch on Sunday also adds a layer of drama. On Sunday, Allen carried the Bills with three passing and three rushing TDs, and it might have to be another get-on-my-back kind of game from the MVP candidate. The Texans' excellent defense, while not facing a dual threat quite like Allen this season, is ranked top five in several major categories and have not allowed a rushing score to a QB this season. Defending Allen won’t be easy, but they have the pressure players and cover men to keep him in check. Houston held him to the worst completion percentage in his career (30%, 9 for 30 passing for 131 yards), with Allen particularly struggling vs. man coverage (1 for 14 passing), in that 23-20 Texans win last season.

2) Mills gets the call again

With C.J. Stroud ruled out for a third straight game, the Texans again will turn to Davis Mills, who's had his most playing time since the 2022 season. Mills has put up solid passing numbers (72-of-120 passing, 726 yards, three TDs, INT) in his four games (two starts), running for 44 yards and a TD on 10 carries and leading two divisional victories. But he's also taken eight sacks and endured some slow stretches for the offense the past two weeks. Nico Collins has been his typically productive self with Mills at QB, as has TE Dalton Schultz. Rookie WR Jayden Higgins has also stepped up with two of his better games this season with Stroud out. The run game has leveled off a bit, with Woody Marks averaging 3.3 yards per carry the past two games, although Nick Chubb has been productive on a per-touch basis. Houston's offensive line could still have its hands full, even against a depleted Bills defensive line. Mills has only one career appearance against the Bills in his career, and it was a nightmare: 11-of-21 passing, 87 yards, zero TDs and four INTs in a 40-0 loss to Buffalo in 2021. The Texans hope this time around goes better.

3) Buffalo's defense must raise its game

This will be an interesting test in a short week for the Bills defense. The group defended the pass well Sunday against an explosive Bucs attack but also allowed 202 rush yards, one week after Miami ran for 197 yards against it. Linebackers Matt Milano and Terrel Bernard have struggled, and the shorthanded defensive line hasn't done enough to stop the bleeding. This game, against a middling Texans run game, could give us a fair barometer of where the Bills' run defense stands heading into the home stretch. Buffalo also has several defenders listed on the injury report, although unlike their offensive counterparts, none have yet been ruled out. If Christian Benford can slow down Nico Collins and Gregory Rousseau can help heat up Davis Mills with the pass rush, the Bills could be in decent shape. They've also relied heavily on forcing takeaways, with eight in the past four games. But the pressure and tackling have been spotty in recent games, and the Bills must not let Mills get settled early. He's been more mistake-prone in first halves and has played well in leading two fourth-quarter comebacks the past two games.

Bills' Week 12 injury report

Texans' Week 12 injury report