Four-round 2021 NFL mock draft 1.0: Patriots pick QB in Round 3

Deals or no deals? This is the question teams in need of a young quarterback are facing heading into the 2021 NFL Draft.

From 2016 to 2018, eight teams traded up to draft a quarterback in the top 12: Bills (Josh Allen), Jets (Sam Darnold), Rams (Jared Goff), Chiefs (Patrick Mahomes), Cardinals (Josh Rosen), Bears (Mitchell Trubisky), Texans (Deshaun Watson) and Eagles (Carson Wentz).

However, in the past two drafts, there were only two trades of any kind made in the top half of the first round and neither of them were for quarterbacks (LB Devin Bush, Steelers, 10th overall selection in 2019; OT Tristan Wirfs, Buccaneers, 13th overall selection in 2020).

This decline in early deals could be the start of a long-time trend because teams seem reluctant to give up three or four premium picks for a prospect. It's also possible that the non-playoff teams typically interested in moving upward were waiting to see whether their current quarterback would develop -- or maybe they just weren't interested in giving up major draft capital for Justin Herbert, Daniel Jones, and/or Tua Tagovailoa.

Then again, it wouldn't be shocking to see the no-trade trend end this year, as there is a long list of quarterback-needy teams and plenty to like about the available QBs. For this four-round projection, however, I play out the scenario that mirrors the 2019 and 2020 drafts. The Jets, Falcons and Panthers land future signal-callers in the top eight selections while staying put, but there are five trades in this mock, including one for a quarterback in the middle of the first round.

The free-agent compensatory picks listed in this exercise are based on my colleague Lance Zierlein's projections from last April. The official list will be made available by the league in the weeks to come. Four additional picks were added to the end of the third round for franchises losing minority employees to head coach or general manager positions throughout the league.

The Matthew Stafford-Jared Goff trade between the Lions and Rams, which included L.A. sending a 2021 third-round pick to Detroit, is factored into this mock. The deal moving Carson Wentz from Philadelphia to Indianapolis for a 2021 third-round pick and a conditional 2022 selection is also included. The trades won't become official before the start of the new league year (March 17).

Shaun Wade
Ohio State · CB · Junior (RS)
Tylan Wallace
Oklahoma State · WR · Senior


Landon Dickerson
Alabama · C · Senior (RS)
Patrick Jones II
Pittsburgh · Edge · Senior (RS)

Trey Smith
Tennessee · G · Senior


Kyle Trask
Florida · QB · Senior (RS)

Jackson Carman
Clemson · OT · Senior (RS)


Amari Rodgers
Clemson · WR · Senior

Trey Sermon
Ohio State · RB · Senior

Eric Stokes
Georgia · CB · Junior


James Hudson
Cincinnati · OT · Junior (RS)


Michael Carter
North Carolina · RB · Senior


Josh Myers
Ohio State · C · Junior (RS)

Richie Grant
UCF · S · Senior (RS)
Larry Rountree III
Missouri · RB · Senior

Hamsah Nasirildeen
Florida State · S · Senior

Joseph Ossai
Texas · Edge · Junior

Brevin Jordan
Miami · TE · Junior
JaCoby Stevens
LSU · S · Senior
Jordan Smith
UAB · Edge · Junior (RS)


Nico Collins
Michigan · WR · Senior

Aaron Banks
Notre Dame · G · Senior
Drew Dalman
Stanford · C · Junior (RS)

Pete Werner
Ohio State · LB · Senior
D'Wayne Eskridge
Western Michigan · WR · Senior (RS)
Tyler Shelvin
LSU · DT · Junior (RS)
Cameron Sample
Tulane · DT · Senior


Milton Williams
Louisiana Tech · DT · Junior (RS)

Quinn Meinerz
Wisconsin-Whitewater · G · Junior (RS)


Kenneth Gainwell
Memphis · RB · Sophomore (RS)

Daelin Hayes
Notre Dame · Edge · Senior (RS)


Tre' McKitty
Georgia · TE · Senior

PROJECTED COMPENSATORY SELECTION

Rondale Moore
Purdue · WR · Junior

PROJECTED COMPENSATORY SELECTION

Davis Mills
Stanford · QB · Junior (RS)

PROJECTED COMPENSATORY SELECTION

Kelvin Joseph
Kentucky · CB · Sophomore (RS)

PROJECTED COMPENSATORY SELECTION


Bobby Brown III
Texas A&M · DT · Junior

PROJECTED COMPENSATORY SELECTION

Dylan Moses
Alabama · LB · Senior

PROJECTED COMPENSATORY SELECTION

Benjamin St-Juste
Minnesota · CB · Junior (RS)

PROJECTED COMPENSATORY SELECTION

Walker Little
Stanford · OT · Senior

PROJECTED COMPENSATORY SELECTION FOR ROBERT SALEH HIRE

Dan Moore Jr.
Texas A&M · OT · Senior

PROJECTED COMPENSATORY SELECTION FOR BRAD HOLMES HIRE

Elerson Smith
Northern Iowa · Edge · Senior (RS)

PROJECTED COMPENSATORY SELECTION FOR DAVID CULLEY HIRE

Pick
106
New Orleans Saints
2020 · 12-4-0
Tommy Tremble
Notre Dame · TE · Junior

PROJECTED COMPENSATORY SELECTION FOR TERRY FONTENOT HIRE

Follow Chad Reuter on Twitter.

Related Content