Eight weeks in the books, 10 more to go! We're on to Week 9 … and it's packed with storylines. To better understand and decipher those storylines, NFL Pro has a wealth of data and insights, carefully curated to highlight what matters most in each game. And in the world of fantasy football, we need every advantage we can get.
Here are four of those storylines, with all the relevant NFL Pro insights and the fantasy fallout we can expect this weekend.
Derrick Henry and Co. match up vs. Miami defense
A surface glance at the Ravens' matchup with the Dolphins this Thursday night would suggest a major advantage for Derrick Henry, Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore ground game. Miami is NFL Pro's 27th-ranked run defense in overall efficiency, allowing the fifth-most rushing yards per game (145.0) and 10 rushing touchdowns (only the Titans have allowed more). They have the fourth-highest missed tackle rate (25.4%) and have allowed the highest yards after contact per attempt in the NFL (3.8). Ultimately, they've allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game to running backs this season and are certainly one of the softer matchups in fantasy.
It is worth noting that they're a little better at stopping the run in specific areas the Ravens tend to feature. Baltimore runs outside the tackles at the second-highest rate in the league (63.3%), and the Dolphins rank 13th in NFL Pro efficiency outside the tackles (31st on inside runs). Baltimore also runs out of shotgun at an above-average rate, and Miami ranks ninth in NFL Pro efficiency in that metric (dead last on runs under center). The Dolphins are also second in NFL Pro efficiency in the red zone and 12th against QB scrambles, both of which matter quite a bit against the Ravens. On the whole, Miami is extremely susceptible to the run game, and especially the big play. But if they're going to have a chance in this game, it might come from their defense stepping up in specific areas that Baltimore tends to focus.
Fantasy Fallout: Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson (in his return from a long injury absence) are both top five options at their respective fantasy positions in what amounts to a generally tantalizing matchup.
Jared Goff, Jameson Williams and deep ball vs. Vikings
At this point, many fantasy fans know about Jared Goff's wildly distinct home-road splits. In his five-year career with Detroit, Goff has a 6.6% pass touchdown rate, a 107.7 passer rating and 19.65 fantasy points per game at Ford Field. But he has just a 4.0% TD rate, a 94.8 passer rating and 13.8 fantasy PPG on the road. Goff has thrown 84 touchdowns in 37 games at home, but just 46 touchdowns in 35 games elsewhere. At home this Sunday against Minnesota, Goff is already starting with an advantage. But the Vikings defense has largely been good enough to eliminate that advantage, matching Detroit's sixth-ranked NFL Pro pass offense with the fifth-ranked NFL Pro pass defense.
The matchup gets particularly intriguing when you divvy up the field by passing depth. According to NFL Pro, the Detroit offense ranks second on short passes, while Minnesota ranks fourth on defense. Detroit also ranks second on intermediate passes, while Minnesota leads the entire league. But on the deep ball, the Lions are 30th in NFL Pro efficiency on offense … and the Vikings are 31st on defense. Minnesota has surrendered 10 completions on 13 deep attempts this year, for 363 yards, four touchdowns, zero interceptions and a league-high 157.9 passer rating (just short of perfect in that metric). They've surrendered a +33.2% completion rate over expected on deep passes, which is nearly double the next-highest team in the league (Titans, 17.7%). Meanwhile, Goff has struggled mightily on the deep ball, completing just four of his 15 attempts with a 57.6 passer rating. A big part of the problem: Jameson Williams has caught just one of his eight deep targets (though that catch was a 44-yard touchdown), after snagging four of 12 for 221 yards and three TDs last season. Goff and Williams need to get on the same page down the field, and this might be an opportunity to do so against the Vikings secondary.
Fantasy Fallout: Jared Goff is a fringe starter in a very difficult matchup, especially since he's struggled in the one area the Vikings can be beaten. However, this might sneakily be the one time a month Jameson Williams pops off for fantasy, making him a viable stream or DFS play.
Red-hot Bo Nix collides with NFL Pro's top pass D
Over the last two weeks, Bo Nix has been a revelation for fantasy. He's thrown for 526 yards and six touchdowns, added 47 yards and two scores on the ground and averaged 32.37 fantasy points over that stretch. But those two games came against the Giants and Cowboys -- NFL Pro's 18th-ranked and 31st-ranked pass defense, respectively (and New York is susceptible on the ground, where Nix beat them hardest). Things will not be so easy against the Texans on the road this Sunday.
The Texans are NFL Pro's highest-ranked defense in overall passing efficiency. But they also specifically rank first in passing against play action, short passing (air yards), long passing (time to throw), passing without a blitz and passing without pressure. They're also fourth against the deep ball, an area in which Nix has struggled mightily, completing just 9 of 30 attempts in 2025. The one hope for Nix's fantasy prospects might be scrambling -- Houston ranks dead last in NFL Pro's defensive efficiency against QB scrambles. Still, after torching fantasy box scores for a couple of weeks straight, the Denver quarterback is at significant risk of cooling all the way off on Sunday, perhaps back to the 16.25 PPG he had averaged through Week 6 (22nd among quarterbacks at the time). And with Derek Stingley Jr. likely locking up Courtland Sutton on the outside, it might be tough for anyone in this passing game to truly thrive in Houston.
Fantasy Fallout: Nix can and should be benched in most leagues in this matchup. Find a streamer to play ahead of him if possible. And while Sutton is more or less a must-start given his production this year, adjust expectations in one of the toughest matchups in the game.
Chiefs and Bills in a race to the QBs
It's the matchup of the week and maybe of the entire regular season. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. Josh Allen and the Bills. Highmark Stadium. There's no question this duel is the most important in the AFC — on a yearly basis — and the regular season meetings usually result in fireworks. In five regular season contests between the two, Allen has averaged 24.49 fantasy points per game with 44.0 rushing yards per game and 13 total touchdowns. Mahomes hasn't been quite as explosive in the past, with just 17.74 PPG and 10 total touchdowns, but he has been the hottest quarterback in fantasy this season, leading the league with 24.5 points per game. Both guys tend to cook when it counts, so whose offensive cuisine reigns supreme on Sunday?
It might depend on which defense can create more pressure and which QB can handle that pressure best. Kansas City and Buffalo pressure the position at the first- and fourth-highest rates in the league this year, respectively, but Mahomes and Allen also rank second and fourth in NFL Pro's passing efficiency against pressure. Allen's completion percentage and passer rating against pressure are slightly higher, but Mahomes' yards per attempt is higher and he's thrown two touchdowns and zero interceptions under duress in 2025. Perhaps the biggest fulcrum of these matchups: Mahomes and the Chiefs are the best in the league when not blitzed, but fall all the way to the bottom 10 on NFL Pro when blitzed. Buffalo blitzes at a nearly league-average rate (24.9%), but have dropped that tendency against Mahomes in recent playoff meetings — just 8.0% in the 2023 Divisional Round and 17.6% in the 2024 AFC Championship. Getting to Mahomes without the blitz on Sunday might be their ticket to a fifth straight regular season win in this rivalry.
Fantasy Fallout: You're starting both these quarterbacks without question, and probably several of their pass-catchers as well. And tuning in to watch what should be another brilliant game at 4:25 pm EST on CBS, or on NFL Plus.
