Fantasy sleepers NFL Week 5: Jared Goff offers major upside; two RBs with flex appeal

After an ugly loss to start the season, the Lions have ripped off three straight wins. So that means Goff has been crushing it, right? Not exactly. It’s the running game that has carried the Detroit offense. Goff, for his part, has been efficient. He’s completed nearly three-quarters of his passes. But apart from his monster game against the Bears in Week 2, Goff hasn’t put up big fantasy numbers. 

Thankfully, the Lions get a catfight in Cincinnati against the Bengals. Cincy’s defense has been as bad as anticipated. It has allowed 240 passing yards per contest, which looks worse when considering three games came against Joe Flacco, Trevor Lawrence and Carson Wentz. Goff and the Lions are a different beast -- literally. Look for Detroit’s signal-caller to post another quality fantasy outing. 

The Saints might be 0-4 but they haven’t been the pushovers we thought they’d be. New Orleans has a top-10 rushing offense. It pushed both San Francisco and Buffalo before ultimately succumbing. And while very few believe Rattler is the team’s long-term answer at quarterback, he’s been serviceable. Through four games, Rattler has a higher completion percentage than Caleb Williams or Patrick Mahomes. He’s thrown for more yards than Jalen Hurts. He’s ninth at the position in rushing yards. And he’s the fantasy QB16 -- ahead of Geno Smith and Sam Darnold. 

This week, the Saints welcome the New York Football Giants to New Orleans. The Giants defense did a good job holding down Justin Herbert and the Chargers passing game last weekend. But Big Blue is giving up big plays through the air. Per Next Gen Stats, the Giants have allowed 23 explosive pass plays (plays of 15 or more yards) -- 11th-most in the league. Apart from last week, Rattler has been willing to take downfield shots. If he gets back to that this week, he has a QB2 ceiling and can be started in all multi-QB formats. 

The Chiefs backfield has been a mess so far this season. Isiah Pacheco is seeing limited opportunity -- and not doing much with it. Kareem Hunt is trying to fill in the gaps but has been pedestrian, at best. That has left an opening for Smith. The rookie saw his biggest workload of the season last week against the Ravens. Notably, he was targeted on four of the seven routes he ran.

Once upon a time, targeting the Jaguars in fantasy was an easy call. But Jacksonville’s stop unit has played well this year. One blind spot, however, has been against pass-catching running backs. The Jags have allowed the sixth-most receiving yards to the position. If Andy Reid is serious about expanding Smith’s role, this is where he could flourish in a Kansas City offense that is beginning to look potent again. The rookie is mostly an option for managers in deeper leagues, but he could have flex appeal in an intriguing prime-time matchup.

Last week in this space, I touted TreVeyon Henderson. Some of it was vibes-based. After the two backs ahead of Henderson put the ball on the ground, it seemed like New England might give its rookie a bigger piece of the pie. That wasn’t the case. And while Henderson had a season-high 12.6 fantasy points against Carolina, his usage wasn’t enough to make me think he’s ready to take off. 

This week, we’re going back to the numbers. Despite his previous ball security issues, Stevenson still held a significant advantage in snaps while leading the team in backfield touches. Until further notice, he’s the RB1 in Josh McDaniels’ offense. This week’s matchup against the Bills should work in Stevenson’s favor. Buffalo’s run defense has been among the league’s worst this year, giving up 6 yards per carry. If you’re starting Stevenson, understand that volume will not be your friend. But the potential for big plays makes him worthy of a flex start. 

When Coleman posted 25 PPR points in the season-opener, I thought it was the beginning of something big for the second-year receiver. Over his next three games, he posted a total of 18.1 points. We’re not popping bottles in celebration just yet. The problem has been that Josh Allen is spreading the ball around. Five players have double-digit targets. But there’s reason for optimism as Coleman tops in Buffalo in targets and air yards.  

That last part could come into play this week. New England has given up big plays in the passing game. Only the Commanders and Steelers have allowed more explosive pass plays. When Allen is looking to push the ball downfield, he’s usually going in Coleman’s direction. The overall breakout for the young receiver may not have hit yet, but this could be a week that gives you a glimpse into the future. Coleman has WR2 upside this week. 

If Spencer Rattler has overachieved, Olave has underachieved. Look away from his 1.2 yards per route run number -- below the league average. Instead, peek at Olave’s 30 percent target share and 35 percent air yards share. The good news is that the Saints are making it a priority to get Olave the ball. The next step is consistently connecting with him on some downfield throws. 

This is where the Giants come in. Don’t let the Jaxson Dart hype fully distract you from a defense that has allowed the most receptions and second-most receiving yards to wideouts. New York is also allowing a gaudy 11 air yards per target to receivers with 17 explosive plays. With a continued effort to get Olave the ball, this week’s matchup could finally lend itself to a big fantasy performance.

After Tennessee’s Week 4 loss to Houston, quarterback Cam Ward said the team’s offense was, uh … well, stinky. Considering Ward called the offense “very mid” during the preseason, this qualifies as a distinct downgrade. Apart from Tony Pollard, it’s been hard to see any reason for optimism in the Titans’ attack. Short of a roster overhaul (unlikely), the Titans will need a change in approach. 

That happened in part with Brian Callahan giving up play-calling duties to Bo Hardegree. The next step will be to give Ward more time to throw. That could mean quick throws to tight ends or slot receivers. Good news! Okonkwo is both. He leads Tennessee in targets and receiving yards from the slot. And he’ll take on a Cardinals defense that has allowed the third-most yards to slot targets. The ceiling for Okonkwo isn’t super high, but he could be a low-end TE1 in Week 5.

On Monday’s edition of the NFL Fantasy Football podcast, we talked about Gadsden in relation to Ladd McConkey’s underwhelming start. The thrust was that Gadsden might not always be a viable option, but that he could frequently be a thorn in McConkey’s side. In two weeks, we’ve seen the rookie tight end go from seven targets to just three. Expect this roller coaster to be the norm. 

The reason to believe things could be on the upswing this week is because of the Washington Commanders’ defense. Only two teams have given up more receiving yards to tight ends this season. With the Chargers' outsized passing volume (63.6 percent, third-highest in the NFL), there should be enough targets for multiple pass catchers to succeed. Gadsden is best left as a streaming option, but he could be a low-end TE1 if he finds the end zone. 

Remember what Cam Ward said about the Titans offense? When the starting quarterback tells you his team is bad, you should probably listen. Tennessee is last in passing yards and total points scored. It's barely ahead of the Bengals in total offensive yards. Only the Vikings have surrendered more sacks. Only Cincinnati is giving up more fantasy points per game to opposing defenses. Yeah, the Titans offense is bad. 

The next team in line to get its shot is the Arizona Cardinals. The Cards have a top-12 fantasy defense after the first month of the season, but that is more a function of who they’ve played. In the first two weeks, the Redbirds faced New Orleans and Carolina -- not exactly juggernauts. This week, they’ll get one of the NFL’s other stoppable forces. A double-digit fantasy week would not be a surprise.

The Browns are a study in duality. The offense is bad. Cleveland has scored the second-fewest points in the NFL. The defense is good. No team has allowed fewer scrimmage yards than Myles Garrett and his mates. More specifically, no team has allowed fewer rushing yards than the Browns. 

That could be important this week against the Vikings. Minnesota wants to be a run-first offense. That changed a bit last week after falling behind the Steelers. This week projects to be a closer contest, meaning the Vikes should be able to stick with their game plan. If Cleveland can shut down the run and force the game onto the arm of Carson Wentz, there’s a chance for sacks and turnovers -- and a solid fantasy day.