Three weeks in the books, 15 more to go! We're on to Week 4 ... and it's packed with storylines. To better understand and decipher those storylines, NFL Pro has a wealth of data and insights, carefully curated to highlight what matters most in each game. And in the world of fantasy football, we need every advantage we can get.
Here are four of those storylines, with all the relevant NFL Pro insights and the fantasy fallout we can expect this weekend.
Jordan Mason to hit the Cleveland wall in London
It's only a month into the season, but the Browns are allowing just 70.3 rushing yards per game. That not just the lowest this season … it's the lowest by any team in any season since the Lions allowed 69.3 YPG in 2014. They're NFL Pro's second-ranked defense in overall rushing efficiency and are No. 1 on rushing outside the tackles. They've allowed the lowest rush success rate (28.8%), yards before contact per carry (-0.1) and explosive run rate (3.8%). And while Jahmyr Gibbs-- arguably the most efficient runner in the NFL -- managed to tag them for 17.7 fantasy points, the other four starters they've faced struggled. Cleveland held Chase Brown, Josh Jacobs, Derrick Henry and David Montgomery to just 7.25 fantasy points per game on average, restricting both Henry (2.3) and Montgomery (1.2) to low single digits.
Meanwhile, in Aaron Jones' absence, Jordan Mason has been excellent, rushing for 173 yards and two touchdowns on 32 carries across two games as the starter. He's been a borderline RB1 over that span, making him a near-must-start in fantasy … but the Browns turn RB1s into pumpkins with ease. Mason's one chance at success might be scoring a touchdown -- which he has a decent chance at doing -- but if that only gets him up to 12 or 13 points, it's a lot of risk for very little reward. Mason and the Vikings have been in Europe for more than a week now, which might give them a slight advantage over the Browns, but that's a small consolation for such a discouraging matchup.
Fantasy Fallout: If you can sit Jordan Mason for a decent RB2 this week, do it. The breakout rookies like Quinshon Judkins and Cam Skattebo are easy examples, but you can also go with waiver adds like Woody Marks in a great matchup or even Rachaad White if Bucky Irving misses the game.
Commanders' pass rush vs. injury-depleted Chargers O-line
So far this season, just two defenses have a quarterback pressure rate above 45% and a sack rate above 7% -- one is the vaunted Broncos unit, the other is the Washington Commanders. If this comes as a surprise to you, don't be too hard on yourself, it came as a surprise to me, too. But with eight-year veteran DE Dorance Armstrong logging 19 QB pressures and DT Daron Payne logging 12 of his own, this front is getting to the passer quickly and effectively. Some credit likely belongs to head coach Dan Quinn, but most of the "credit" belongs to Washington's opponents -- they've faced the highest time to throw of any defense in the league, with Russell Wilson, Jordan Love, Geno Smith and Michael Penix Jr. averaging 3.06 seconds to release the rock against the Commanders. It might be more of the same in Week 5, as Justin Herbert's 2.85 time to throw is ninth-slowest among qualified passers, slower than Wilson, Love and Penix. But more importantly, Chargers left tackle Joe Alt, the one bright spot of their offensive line, suffered an ankle sprain in Week 4 and will likely miss Week 5. That means they'll be fielding backup tackle Austin Deculus alongside an already struggling crew that has allowed the fourth-highest pressure rate in the league so far.
Unless Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman can come up with a game plan that gets the ball out of Justin Herbert's hand lightning quick (pun intended), the Commanders pass rush will likely get to him early and often on Sunday. That could spell serious danger for both him and the offense at large, coming off a 21-18 loss to the Giants in which Herbert threw just 203 yards, one TD and two interceptions. In fact, over the last two games, Herbert has been pressured 50 times -- 15 more than any other quarterback -- including a whopping 25 quick pressures. With Jayden Daniels on the mend and an efficient committee-based run game, Washington should put up points and challenge Los Angeles to keep up, which could expose Herbert even further.
Fantasy Fallout: Coming off a Week 4 finish as the QB23 in fantasy, and facing a productive pass rush without either of his top offensive tackles prior to the season, Justin Herbert is a very risky play on Sunday. It's also likely that one or two of his top three targets -- Quentin Johnston, Ladd McConkey and Keenan Allen -- will struggle … and it's hard to know which. Johnston has been the most reliable, so he should be started, but the other two are borderline at best.
Buccaneers banged-up ground game vs. Seahawks D
Through the first four weeks, Bucky Irving racked up 90 touches, tied for third-most in the league with Jonathan Taylor, and while his 430 scrimmage yards ranked fifth, his 237 rushing yards was tied for 20th (with Saquon Barkley). Now, he is dealing with an ankle injury that has his status for Week 5 up in the air. In his (likely) absence, the Buccaneers will turn to Rachaad White and Sean Tucker against a Seahawks defense that currently sits atop NFL Pro's defensive rushing efficiency leaderboard. Seattle is an absolute unit up front, ranking top five in rushing efficiency both inside and outside the tackles, against designed runs, in the red zone and with light boxes. They've allowed the second-fewest yards after contact per carry (2.3, behind the Bucs themselves), and the second-lowest explosive run rate in the league (4.0%, behind the Browns). And while the Buccaneers have been very efficient running against light boxes (fifth in NFL), which the 'Hawks use at the fourth-highest rate in the league, Seattle has been equally efficient on defense (fourth in NFL).
This is setting up to be a tough test for the Bucs backups on Sunday, in a crucial matchup of 3-1 teams looking to cement their places amid the NFC's best. Notably, Rachaad White was quitely productive as the starter in 2023 and 2024, averaging 14.61 fantasy points with nearly 80 scrimmage yards per game. And Sean Tucker was incredibly memorable in his one career game playing more than 30% of the offensive snaps, when he went for 192 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns on 17 touches against the Saints last October. Tampa Bay will need one or both to step up big to beat a Seattle team coming off three straight wins.
Fantasy Fallout: Assuming Bucky Irving is indeed out on Sunday, Rachaad White becomes a playable RB3/flex option. His ceiling may be capped by this matchup, but he will likely see significant volume, including several targets. Sean Tucker is much more of a desperation play -- or a daily dart throw -- who will need a big play and/or touchdown to make his mark.
Efficient Drake Maye seeks to dice up Bills defense
Through the first month of his "sophomore" season in the NFL, Patriots QB Drake Maye leads all qualified passers in completion rate (74%) and is fourth in both EPA/dropback (0.23) and success rate (52.3%). But Maye has been particularly good on quick passes so far: 46 of 54 for an 85.2% completion rate, 359 yards, five TDs and just one INT. The only player with a higher completion rate over expected than Maye's 11.2% on quick throws is Jared Goff. And it's not just rates and averages for Maye -- he's sixth in total pass yards (988) and tied for third with nine total touchdowns (passing and rushing combined). The question for Week 5 is whether Maye can keep all this momentum going into a critical matchup with the undefeated division rival Bills.
Buffalo ranks 11th in NFL Pro's overall pass defense efficiency, but they're 18th against quick passes. Incidentally, they're also 24th against play-action passing, and Maye and the Patriots are using play action at a slightly-above-average rate (26.1%, 12th-highest), so that might a recipe for success for Josh McDaniels' offense. If New England is going to have a chance for the big upset on Sunday night, Maye will likely need to be extremely efficient and pepper his way to a big day. That's great for fantasy purposes, and promising for his top pass-catchers, which appears to currently include Stefon Diggs and Hunter Henry.
Fantasy Fallout: In a game he'll have to throw a lot, and given his early-season success, Drake Maye is a must-start in fantasy this week. His receivers are a little harder to evaluate, since no true WR1 has emerged yet, but Hunter Henry is a strong play at tight end and both Stefon Diggs and Kayshon Boutte are flex considerations.
