Week 14 NFL picks: Chiefs unanimously chosen over Chargers; Seahawks or Cardinals in NFC West clash?

NFL.com editors Ali Bhanpuri, Tom Blair, Brooke Cersosimo, Gennaro Filice and Dan Parr will predict every game of the 2024 NFL season, using the unbeatable combo of football analysis and excessive punctuation. Check out their NFL picks for every Week 14 game below.

NOTE: The lines provided by DraftKings are current as of 1 p.m. ET on Thursday, Dec. 5 unless otherwise noted below.

SUNDAY, DEC. 8

Why Gennaro picked the Dolphins: A few months ago, Miami and New York were supposed to be serious contenders in the AFC East. A few days ago, Buffalo clinched its fifth straight division title -- with five weeks remaining in the regular season. Needless to say, the 2024 campaign hasn't played out as planned for the Dolphins or Jets. So, what should we expect when they face off Sunday? A win for the home team!

After firing head coach Robert Saleh following the team's 2-3 start, Jets owner Woody Johnson stated, "This change, the change that we made today -- that I made -- I believe will bring new energy and positivity that will lead to more wins, starting now." Not so much. New York has gone 1-6 since, with a previously stout defense suddenly matching the Aaron Rodgers-led offense in ineptitude.

Miami also faced major adversity in the first half of the season: Another concussion sent Tua Tagovailoa to injured reserve. But since Tua's return from his latest setback, the Dolphins have gone 3-3 with the offense averaging a healthy 27 points per game. Sure, last week's trip to frigid Green Bay played out as I expected -- poorly -- but now Miami's back in the comfy climate of South Florida.

In summation, the Dolphins have shown signs of life, while the Jets still feel dead on arrival.

Why Dan picked the Vikings: Watching Kirk Cousins come back home to shake off a horrendous stretch and pull off an upset would be a fun storyline, but it's not what I expect to play out on Sunday. The Vikings have their flaws, escaping the last two weeks with victories by a combined four points, but the Falcons seem to be in rock-bottom mode. They have scored just 12 points per game since Week 10, ranking 31st in the league over that span. Overall, Cousins has 15 giveaways (most in the NFL), including a league-high nine interceptions when under pressure. That's not good, especially in a battle against Brian Flores, who, as you might have heard, likes to blitz and coordinates a defense that ranks in the top 10 in QB pressure rate. Now, Vikings QB Sam Darnold is tied for second behind Cousins with 14 giveaways, so if Sam gets sloppy with the ball, anything can happen. Darnold has a 6:0 TD-INT ratio in his last three games, though, while Cousins is at 0:6 in his last three contests. I don't like where this is trending for Atlanta.

Why Brooke picked the Saints: Don't look now, but Derek Carr is playing some of the most efficient football of his career -- despite going 2-2 since his return from an oblique injury. He's thrown six pass TDs with no INTs in that span, and his 103.3 passer rating this season ranks sixth and would be a career high. He's clicking with Marquez Valdes-Scantling (at least one TD in each of his last three games) and Alvin Kamara continues to weave through defenses, but there is the question of how much the loss of do-it-all playmaker Taysom Hill will affect the unit. Fortunately, New Orleans runs into a down-and-out Giants outfit that just placed its best defensive player (Dexter Lawrence) on IR, while New York's quarterbacks are averaging an NFL-low 5.9 yards per attempt this season. Drew Lock, who will start his second straight game, and Big Blue are up against a Saints defense that's allowing nearly 400 total yards per game. Lock could see an improvement from his Thanksgiving play (21-of-32, 178 pass yards, one INT), but the kicker is New Orleans has given up just 12 pass TDs (tied for fourth-fewest in the NFL) and have 12 INTs (tied for seventh-most) this season. With both coaches feeling the heat, it feels as if there's a lot on the line in this matchup. Can New York find its first win since Oct. 6? I'm not so sure, with the Saints playing slightly more inspired football at this time.

Why Ali picked the Eagles: Over the past five weeks, the Panthers have transformed themselves into one of the tougher outs in the NFL. Their marked improvement from NFC cellar-dweller to weekly spoiler candidate has everything to do with Bryce Young's inspired play since returning to the starting lineup. The former No. 1 overall pick looks like he's having fun on the field again, and his confidence and enthusiasm is seemingly spreading throughout the locker room. He's seeing the field better than he has at any point in his young career, which is allowing him to play fast, avoid pressure and make smart decisions. Carolina's defense, meanwhile, has quietly been solid against the pass since D.J. Wonnum made his season debut in Week 10, ranking fifth in passer rating allowed and eighth in EPA per dropback. Generating consistent pressure continues to be a problem for this group, but when the Panthers have been able to put heat on QBs, they're really bringing it; Carolina has the fourth-highest sack percentage in the league over the past four weeks. Will all of this positive momentum carry over into their latest, most difficult test yet? I just don't see it, unfortunately. Philadelphia is simply better across the board. While the Panthers continue to workshop their winning formula, the Eagles already seem to have mastered theirs: Pummel opponents with Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown and the NFL's top-ranked defense. With Pittsburgh on the horizon, it's possible Philly could overlook the 3-9 squad coming to town. But I suspect the Eagles will sidestep the trap game after watching Kansas City and Tampa Bay nearly fall victim to it.

Why Gennaro picked the Steelers: Two weeks ago in Cleveland, the Browns upset the Steelers in a nationally televised snowstorm. Immediately afterward, Pittsburgh WR George Pickens provided some choice words on the outcome.

"Conditions played a huge, huge part in today's game," Pickens said. "I don't really think the Cleveland Browns are a good team at all. I think the conditions kind of saved them today."

That wasn't the only piece of bulletin board material to spawn from the postgame. On the victorious side, Myles Garrett got in on the act following a three-sack tour de force. Miffed by a social media slight from Pittsburgh's T.J. Watt, the Cleveland superstar used the Thursday Night Football platform to chide his edge-rushing counterpart.

"I got a lot of respect for him, a lot of respect for all the guys over there and all the edge rushers in the league, but I'm No. 1," Garrett said. "And that's from edge defender 1, edge 1 to Defensive Player of the Year: I'm the guy. So that runs through me. There's no other person being defended as I am or schemed or played against like I am."

Suffice to say, the 147th installment of the AFC's oldest rivalry won't lack spice on Sunday, even with one team playing for pride at 3-9. Pickens will be pleased to know there's no snow in the forecast, but no, I don't see the Steelers cruising to victory as a result. Jameis Winston clearly has breathed life into a roster that's more talented than its record indicates. The Browns compete once again, but ultimately fall short on the road.

Why Dan picked the Buccaneers: Here are two teams that find themselves in very different places this holiday season. The Bucs have everything to play for, with the NFC South title well within reach. The Raiders have already been eliminated from playoff contention and last won a game in September. Yet, the team that showed up last week against the reigning champions certainly seemed interested in playing spoiler. Las Vegas' offense has been better since changes were made to the coaching staff a month ago, and the Bucs' defense is vulnerable to attack, ranking in the bottom five on a per-game basis in yards allowed, passing yards allowed and first downs allowed. If Baker Mayfield plays as poorly as he did last week, the Bucs are beatable, and they probably would have lost to the Panthers if not for Chuba Hubbard's lackadaisical ball security. I'm expecting a cleaner performance from Tampa Bay with so much on the line.

Why Tom picked the Titans: If you chopped off the grossest parts of last week's loss to the Commanders (Brian Robinson's 40-yard waltz into the end zone to open the scoring and the two turnovers that helped put Tennessee in a 28-0 hole), the game book doesn't look half bad for the Titans, who outscored Washington 19-14 the rest of the way. Of course, with similar selective editing, one could paint a rosy-ish picture of the Jaguars' Week 13 loss to the Texans, which was actually the closer of the two contests. And it's not like these teams are worlds apart in terms of talent or record. The real gulf shows up when comparing trajectories. Brian Callahan is building something in Nashville; he can still come away from a blowout loss with a glowing take about Will Levis stacking games "of growth and good football." The Jags, meanwhile, will have to trudge toward the end of a disappointing season with Trevor Lawrence on injured reserve -- and their league-worst defense should give Levis plenty of chances to keep stacking positive moments on Sunday.

Why Brooke picked the Seahawks: The Seahawks are in the NFC West's pole position, but this race is far from over. Seattle's remaining schedule is a bear, with meetings against the Packers and Vikings following Sunday's clash with Arizona. Seattle is playing solid complementary football right now. Geno Smith and the passing attack are clicking, and it's great to see Jaxon Smith-Njigba breaking out in Year 2 -- he's averaging 110.3 receiving yards per game since Week 9. DK Metcalf is also having a renaissance of sorts statistically, as the big-bodied wideout's average of 76.3 receiving yards per game is his highest mark in a season since 2020. The run game is lacking, but the defense is picking up that slack. (Hello, Leonard Williams!) In fact, Seattle ranks in the top five in points per game (14.7), total yards per game (277.7) and yards per play allowed (4.8) over the last three weeks. Meanwhile, the Cardinals appear to be trending in the opposite direction, losing two straight out of the bye week. Kyler Murray threw just one TD and three picks in those two defeats, the first of which was to Seattle in Week 12. The Cards must rediscover their pre-bye form: Murray finding Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride regularly, combined with a heavy dose of James Conner, who'll be looking to erase his last outing vs. Seattle (8 yards on seven carries). The talent isn't the question with Arizona's offense; rather, it's about executing consistently (and avoiding crushing penalties). The home team could get into trouble if this one's close late. Geno Smith has been an absolute "gamer" in two-minute drills this season, ranking second among QBs in pass yards, pass TDs and rush yards in this area, while the Seahawks have an NFL-best +37 point differential in the final two minutes before halftime or the end of regulation. Not to mention, Smith has three game-winning drives and three fourth-quarter comebacks this season, both tied for second behind only Patrick Mahomes.

Why Ali picked the Bills: Behind an MVP-caliber campaign from Josh Allen, a league-best +17 turnover margin and a physicality up front on par with any team in the league, the Bills have ripped off seven straight wins. This past Sunday night, Buffalo recorded its fifth 30-10er of the season. If that term is new to you (probably because I just made it up), a 30-10er is when a team scores 30 or more points in a game while limiting its opponent to 10 or fewer. No other club has even three such performances this year. Buffalo is blowing out folks left and right, impartial to division, conference or location. In fact, Allen has already won on the West Coast this season, posting a 30-10er (let's make it a thing!) on Seattle in Week 8, and enters this matchup with nearly as many dubs against NFC teams as Matthew Stafford since 2022 (11-2 vs. 14-13). For the Rams to deliver No. 17 loss No. 3, and keep pace in the NFC playoff race, they'll have to be patient and disciplined on both sides of the ball and match Buffalo's toughness in the trenches. But if James Cook is consistently hitting the line of scrimmage untouched, expect a long day for Sean McVay and Co.

Why Tom picked the Bears: Of the three teams that have fired their coaches in-season so far, Chicago is in the best shape on paper, with more 2024 success to point to than the Jets and more talent than the Saints. There's reason to think a steadier hand on the tiller could get more out of this roster. Thomas Brown's positive impact as an offensive coordinator (Chicago ranked 30th in yards per game under Shane Waldron, averaging 277.7 yards between Weeks 1 and 10; in the three games since Brown replaced Waldron, Chicago ranked 13th, with 363.3 yards) suggests he at least knows how to work with the pieces he has, and that is an encouraging sign for his tenure as interim head coach. San Francisco, on the other hand, is reeling. Kyle Shanahan's coaching prowess and Brock Purdy's savvy should be enough to keep this one close, but the Niners are going to be without multiple offensive cornerstones and might also be down Nick Bosa again -- and in his absence over the past two weeks, San Francisco allowed 30-plus points for the first time all season. Basically, I'm picturing the Bears without the incomprehensible gaffes and somewhat screwy luck that helped turn their season sideways, which is what makes them feel like a sturdier play than the shaky Niners.

Why Brooke picked the Chiefs: This is the closest these teams have felt in years, thanks to the way Jim Harbaugh has his new squad playing. Justin Herbert hasn't bested Patrick Mahomes since 2021, which includes their Week 4 meeting when Herbert was without both of his starting tackles. Having Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater this time around bodes well for the QB, who saw plenty of Chris Jones last time out. While both quarterbacks are averaging career lows in pass yards per game this season, it feels like Herbert is playing the better ball, but the three-time Super Bowl champion's team has reached deep into Mary Poppins' bag of tricks to win every single week. The loss of J.K. Dobbins feels huge, as the veteran back has a 15.2 explosive run rate (runs of 10-plus yards) this season, second to only Detroit's Jahmyr Gibbs (17.8), per Next Gen Stats. Without him, the Chargers need their offensive playmakers to show up; they can't afford a repeat of last week because, well, the Chiefs are not the Falcons. Yes, even though the back-to-back reigning champs are flirting with Ls on a regular basis this season -- a weird feeling in the Mahomes era -- with nine comeback wins and nine one-possession wins. Can they pull off another potentially close tilt this week -- this time against the league's top scoring defense? Mahomes has historically owned top defenses, going 7-2 in his career against the No. 1 scoring defense (including playoffs). There is a lot to like about where these Chargers are headed -- don't get me wrong. It's just tough to pick against a proven winner ... in prime time ... at home. The AFC West title will remain in Kansas City for another year.

MONDAY, DEC. 9

Why Gennaro picked the Bengals: Over the past three games, the Bengals have faced three playoff-bound AFC teams -- the Ravens, Chargers and Steelers -- with the first two contests coming on the road. During this stretch, Joe Burrow has averaged 364.3 yards passing, posted a 10:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio … and lost every time out. Everyone bemoans the simplistic nature of "QB wins," and this is more fuel for that raging fire: when someone plays the game's most important position at an elite level and cannot buy a win. Burrow leads the league in passing yards (3,337) and passing touchdowns (30), but his team's closer to the No. 1 overall pick than a playoff berth.

Sometimes life is just unfair. Burrow refuses to wave the white flag, though. In the postgame press conference following this past Sunday's defeat, the quarterback stressed that the Bengals "will be remembered by how we handled this," issuing a strong message to teammates about the rest of the season: "I think we'll learn a lot about who we have in the locker room -- the guys that we can count on going forward, the guys that we can't."

This week's trip to Dallas offers an extremely accommodating foe. The Cowboys have the NFL's worst home point differential (-111) and one of the league's worst defenses, so Burrow and Co. should light up the scoreboard once again. But the question remains the same: Can Cincinnati's own ghastly D do anything to slow the opposition. With Dallas starting Cooper Rush in place of the injured Dak Prescott, I'm cautiously optimistic Lou Anarumo's group can get a few stops.

THURSDAY'S GAME

Why Tom picked the Packers: The prediction I feel the most confident about here is that I will be fuming by the final whistle, because it is too easy to see how either side could burn me. I don't relish going against the Lions' potent offense, which will probably be the most talented unit on the field Thursday. So I'd better lay out my reasoning here before I think about it too long and change my mind. The Packers have rushed for 100-plus yards in all but two of their games so far and all but one of their wins. The Lions haven't allowed an opponent to crack the century mark on the ground since Week 9 -- when they beat the Packers on the road, despite Josh Jacobs running for 95 yards on 13 carries. This week, though, Detroit will be missing a host of injured defenders (like Alex Anzalone, Levi Onwuzurike, Malcolm Rodriguez, D.J. Reader, and Josh Paschal) who would likely have been a big part of the plan to slow Jacobs. I think the Lions are still the better team, but it would be asking a lot of them to win all of their divisional games, and after they barely escaped with a win over Chicago last week, this feels like as good a time as any for a rising Packers group to knock Detroit back a bit.

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