Week 18 NFL picks: Will Broncos clinch playoff spot? Vikings or Lions on Sunday night?

NFL.com editors Ali Bhanpuri, Tom Blair, Brooke Cersosimo, Gennaro Filice and Dan Parr will predict every game of the 2024 NFL season, using the unbeatable combo of football analysis and excessive punctuation. Check out their Week 18 NFL picks below.

NOTES:

1. The lines provided by DraftKings are current as of 1 p.m. ET on Thursday, Jan. 2 unless otherwise noted below.
2. * -- Pick flipped after publishing.
3. ** -- Final score prediction changed after publishing.

SATURDAY, JAN. 4

Why Dan picked the Ravens: John Harbaugh's Ravens have not been content to simply win games since their Week 14 bye. They have not settled for anything less than a shellacking, winning their last three games by an average margin of 22.3 points. Two of those blowouts came against teams that will represent the AFC in the playoffs, so forgive me if I don't anticipate Lamar Jackson and Co. having much of a problem dismissing the Browns -- who are tied for the league's worst record -- especially when Baltimore has the added incentive of being a win away from locking in the No. 3 seed and at least one home playoff game. I know the Browns beat the Ravens in Week 8, but that's ancient history, a fading memory from a bygone era when Kevin Stefanski wasn't choosing between Dorian Thompson-Robinson and Bailey Zappe at quarterback. DTR averages 4.0 pass yards per attempt in his five career starts, which is the second-worst mark of any starting QB with 100-plus career attempts since 1950. Yet, he still might be the Browns' preferred passer on Saturday. Yes, I expect a lopsided Ravens victory.

EDITOR'S UPDATE: The Browns will start Zappe at quarterback on Saturday, per NFL Network Insider Tom Pelissero.

Why Gennaro picked the Bengals: Let's start with the team stakes. In order to complete an inconceivable voyage from the depths of 4-8 despair to the euphoria of postseason play, Cincinnati must win this road game and then have Denver and Miami not win on Sunday. As for the home team, Pittsburgh can still take the AFC North and lock up the No. 3 seed; first, the Ravens must lose Saturday's opener, and then the Steelers need to win this nightcap. But even if Baltimore prevails, Mike Tomlin's squad still will have motivation beyond just shedding “the stench” of a three-game losing streak, with postseason seeding in play. So, unlike with some games on the Week 18 slate, I expect a game effort from both sides.

Now for the individual stakes. Is Bengals QB Joe Burrow a true MVP contender? Well, despite his otherworldly performance in the back half of the season and a hipster candidacy that just randomly gained support from Troy Aikman on Monday Night Football, Burrow's almost certainly NOT going to take home the hardware. Just ask the man himself. On the other hand, Steelers OLB T.J. Watt is squarely in the mix for Defensive Player of the Year, though a couple of quiet weeks might necessitate a loud regular-season finale.

Taking all of that into account, I'll ride with the red-hot team/quarterback.

SUNDAY, JAN. 5

Why Brooke picked the Falcons: This is a must-win game for the Falcons, who also need the Bucs to lose against the Saints to win the division and earn a spot in the playoffs. Michael Penix Jr. has provided a spark in his two starts. The Falcons averaged 29 points in those contests after scoring fewer than 22 in each of their previous five games with Kirk Cousins. Bijan Robinson has played a huge role in that improvement, too, having scored two rush TDs in back-to-back games. The defense looked solid over Penix's first six quarters of play before allowing Washington to roar back in the second half of last week's loss. While Bryce Young has been steadier since his benching, not having Chuba Hubbard hurts, as we saw last week when Carolina rushed for a measly 39 yards. The Panthers could get Miles Sanders back, which would help a team that needs a strong run game if it wants to improve its 1-6 road record this season. That still might not be enough, as this on-a-mission Falcons group is 5-1 against teams currently under .500.

Why Dan picked the Commanders: The Commanders have already punched their ticket to the playoffs, and they can lock in the No. 6 seed in the NFC with a win against Dallas. It sounds like they are taking the chance to finish sixth -- instead of seventh -- pretty seriously, at least when you listen to their head coach. Said Dan Quinn earlier this week: "We're going to go after this as hard as we can. ... We realize having the sixth seed is a good thing, and we're going to fight like hell to keep that." Well, alright then. While Washington is talking about fighting like hell, the Cowboys don't have a chance to make the playoffs or finish with a winning record and might be cycling through their quarterbacks to give them each a look on Sunday. They have won four of six despite being at far less than full strength due to injuries, which is extremely respectable, but they didn't look like a team with much fight left in a 41-7 loss last week, the first of the two games they will play without All-Pro CeeDee Lamb to close out the season. I see a decisive edge for the Commanders.

Why Ali picked the Packers: The postseason-bound Packers are likely stuck in the NFC’s seventh seed, with a win on Sunday only meaningful to their final playoff positioning if the Commanders also lose. But beating the Bears is meaningful in its own right. Especially when that's all you know. As Green Bay's head coach, Matt LaFleur has never lost to Chicago. He's a perfect 11-0. In this one-sided, but long-standing rivalry that mark means something. You better believe LaFleur would strongly prefer to secure win No. 12 before he suffers loss No. 1 -- and he definitely doesn't want that first defeat occurring at Lambeau in what will be his 100th game as a head coach. Plus, after last week's showing in Minnesota, my guess is he'd like a palate cleanser before Green Bay enters the tournament. So regardless of how many snaps the Packers' starters take on Sunday, this team isn't just going to lay down in front of the home crowd -- and not against such a hated opponent. The Bears have the overall talent to keep this one competitive, but Green Bay's coaching advantage ultimately carries the day.

Why Tom picked the Colts: This one has caused me more stress than I thought it would. I almost went with the Jaguars, entranced by their steady-eddy mediocrity behind Mac Jones, and indeed could still swap in an entire blurb here justifying that choice. Over the past five games, Jacksonville has basically performed at replacement level, going 2-3 while generating yardage and point differentials close to zero (plus-39 and minus-4, respectively). Jones and Co. don't get too high, they don't get too low and they seem to always be within one score of winning. We can't say the same for Indy, especially if Joe Flacco (who is 0-3 with a TD-to-INT ratio of 4:6 over his past three games) ends up starting again for Anthony Richardson. This is about where I was going to originally end my take -- until I thought longer about the lift Jonathan Taylor (who missed Flacco's narrow loss to Jacksonville in Week 5) can provide, and further weighed the likelihood that the Jaguars can sweep a second AFC South opponent (after going 2-0 against Tennessee) with a win on the road. So instead, I have talked myself into backing a messy former fringe contender by writing way too many words about a Week 18 game between two sub-.500 teams.

EDITOR'S UPDATE: Richardson has been ruled out with a back injury on the Colts' Friday injury report.

Why Brooke picked the Patriots: Having already locked up the No. 2 seed in the AFC, the Bills will play a blend of starters and backups against the Patriots, head coach Sean McDermott said earlier in the week. Josh Allen will extend his streak of consecutive starts to 115, most in franchise history, but the MVP candidate isn't expected to play much, so we should see a healthy dose of Mitchell Trubisky. Perhaps the biggest storyline driving this contest is the fact that New England can clinch the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft with a loss. That said, I don't expect the Pats to roll over, as they nearly knocked off the Bills two weeks ago. QB Drake Maye, who will start on Sunday, has thrown at least one TD pass in eight consecutive games and is building a nice rapport with his supporting cast despite the Pats losing six straight. Could fellow rookie Joe Milton III make his NFL debut? It's tough to pick a game with so many moving parts. That said, I'll go with the Pats ending the season on a high note, even if it means losing draft positioning as a result.

Why Dan picked the Eagles: Can the Giants' starters beat the Eagles' backups? That's basically what we are trying to determine here, with Nick Sirianni indicating on Wednesday that he will rest his top guys, including Saquon Barkley, now that Philadelphia is locked into the No. 2 seed in the NFC. A couple weeks ago, my answer to that question probably would have been no, silly -- the Giants just got blown out by a so-so Falcons team. But after a 45-point outburst from the G-Men in Week 17? I'm not so sure. A second straight New York win wouldn't surprise me, but as I've done throughout the season in this space, I'm putting my trust in Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio. I don't believe he is going to allow Drew Lock to come into Lincoln Financial Field and score at will like the QB did against the Colts last week. Aside from Week 17, it's been a rough go for Lock this season, and Fangio should have a much better plan in place than Gus Bradley did for Indy last week. Give me Philly in a tight game.

Why Tom picked the Buccaneers: Even if the Saints weren't limping to the finish line, I would not be able to resist rolling with Baker Mayfield in a win-and-in situation. At one time, that might have read like some sort of a "bit," but no longer. My pro-Baker position is earnest and defensible, because he's performing like one of the best QBs in the NFL, tied with Lamar Jackson for the second-most passing TDs (39) and ranking behind only Jackson, Joe Burrow and Jared Goff in passer rating (107.6). His fiery enthusiasm plays well now that he's thriving with a strong surrounding cast and play-caller. In last week's blowout win over Carolina, Mayfield tied a career high with five scoring tosses -- one more than he put up against New Orleans the last time these teams played. The Bucs rolled to 51 points in that Week 6 game, the only time this season that they scored more than they did against the Panthers (48) in Week 17. They've worked out how to win without Chris Godwin, while Bucky Irving has been fully unleashed. Somewhat incredibly, the Bucs are about to clinch their fifth consecutive playoff berth.

Why Ali picked the Texans: Fixed into the AFC's fourth seed, the Texans seemingly have little to play for in their regular-season finale. But that's not how DeMeco Ryans sees it. Disappointed with the team's overall performance in last week's 31-2 deconstruction at the hands of the Ravens (their second consecutive lopsided loss to an AFC heavyweight), Houston's head man intends to play his starters on Sunday -- and then will "see how the game goes." It better go positively for the Texans, who can ill-afford another dud on the doorstep of the postseason. Lucky for Houston, the Titans have been one of the best get-right opponents the league has to offer this year. Over the team's last four games, Tennessee has accounted for half of the Jags' 2024 win total, assisted the Bengals in their long road back to contention and even tossed the Colts a lifeline in their playoff push (before Indy threw it away one week later). The Titans are among the most careless (31st in turnover differential) and least disciplined (31st in penalties) teams in the NFL, with their top two QBs (Will Levis and Mason Rudolph) each guilty of double-digit giveaways; the Colts' Anthony Richardson and Joe Flacco are the only other two teammates to accomplish that notorious feat this season.

It's true that Tennessee did defeat Houston back in Week 12, but it's also true the Titans haven't won a game since then. I just don't see the Texans -- in desperate need of a confidence boost -- wasting this golden tune-up (and revenge) opportunity.

Why Gennaro picked the Cardinals: Three years after taking Kyler Murray with the first pick of the draft, the Cardinals handed their quarterback a megabucks extension. Will the 49ers follow suit with the last pick of the draft?

That's the burning question in San Francisco as the Niners close out the kind of SEASON FROM HELL that substantiates the mythical notion of a Super Bowl hangover. Unfortunately, the book is closed on Brock Purdy's third NFL campaign; an elbow injury will sideline him for this finale, meaning Josh Dobbs will get the start. And that is my simple explanation for backing the birds: In a Week 18 matchup between two losing teams playing out the string of a playoff-free campaign, give me the one taking the field with its franchise quarterback -- if that is indeed what Murray is …

Nearly six full seasons into his professional career, Kyler remains something of a tease. He still wows us with flashes of intoxicating arm talent and video game athleticism, but the consistency is lacking from week to week -- and sometimes, drive to drive. That said, Murray and the Cardinals have played most of their best football this season in the comfy confines of State Farm Stadium, so here's a vote for Arizona finishing off the 2024 campaign in style by completing a sweep of the reigning division/conference champions.

Why Tom picked the Broncos: The last time the Chiefs rested Patrick Mahomes and other starters in preparation for the playoffs, in Week 18 of the 2023 season, they actually ended up winning -- against the Chargers, who were shuffling toward an offseason reset while rolling Easton Stick out at QB. Denver, on the other hand, has its playoff life at stake this weekend. And though the Broncos have scuffled a little, losing two in a row, they should be plenty capable of clinching a postseason berth, presuming many of Kansas City's most important players are parked on the sideline. Regardless of how far this squad might go after Sunday, finishing the regular-season strong can only be good for Sean Payton's long-term project and for Bo Nix, the first Denver-developed quarterback to top 3,000 passing yards and 25 passing TDs in the same season since Jay Cutler did it in 2008. I trust Payton to close the deal and keep this group headed on the right trajectory in 2025.

Why Ali picked the Seahawks: Sean McVay plans to sit several of his starters for this NFC West clash, which is a bit surprising considering L.A. is not locked into the conference's three seed. A loss to the Seahawks paired with a Bucs win over the Panthers would drop the Rams to No. 4 -- guaranteeing them a date with a 14-win team on Super Wild Card Weekend. Not ideal … though neither is losing a key player before the playoffs even begin. In either case, they'll have their hands full this weekend against a Seattle team that has been exceptional on the road this year (6-1). That season-long success should carry into their finale, when the 'Hawks, free of postseason concerns or implications, play with a looseness and aggressiveness that overwhelms a conservative L.A. squad looking to leave SoFi as healthy as possible. My guess is the Seahawks, who nearly nipped the Rams back in Week 9, will have more than enough bite left in them to hand their division rival an L before traveling north for the winter.

Why Gennaro picked the Chargers: While the Raiders have been eliminated from the playoffs for a month, the Chargers have clinched a wild-card slot, but their seed remains TBD, with the outcome of Saturday night's Bengals-Steelers game playing a major role.

• If Pittsburgh wins on Saturday: Los Angeles is locked into the No. 6 seed no matter what happens on Sunday.
• If Pittsburgh loses on Saturday: Los Angeles gets the No. 5 seed with a win and the No. 6 seed with a loss.

With the No. 5 seed ticketed for a trip to Houston -- and a date with the underwhelming Texans, who are indeed locked into the No. 4 seed -- you'd think the Bolts would be determined to move up the pecking order. So, what is Jim Harbaugh's strategy in Week 18?

"As Derwin [James] said, 11 wins sounds better than 10," the Chargers' first-year coach offered on Monday. "Plan will be to win."

But of course. The simple modus operandi of a Harbaugh.

OK, to be fair, the whimsical wordsmith has expounded on his approach to this situation a bit more, but I've already seen enough from his Chargers this season to know that they're bound to provide a buttoned-up effort, no matter who is or isn't in the lineup. And while the Raiders have won their past two games, they still only boast one victory over a team with a winning record: a 26-23 triumph over the Ravens back in Week 2 that remains one of the most confounding results of this season. I'll stick with conventional thinking here.

Why Tom picked the Dolphins: As flawed as they are, they keep providing glimpses of an alternate reality in which Tua Tagovailoa and Mike McDaniel pushed Miami toward the top of the AFC standings: a big gainer to Tyreek Hill here, a burst from De'Von Achane there. The Jets, on the other hand, are not providing glimpses of anything good, really. Stepping in for Tagovailoa last week, Tyler Huntley produced 225 yards and a passer rating of 115.5, numbers that Aaron Rodgers has topped in the same game just twice so far this season. When these teams kicked off in their last meeting, back in Week 14, the Jets were still technically in the playoff hunt, and they hung tough in that game -- until Miami officially eliminated them with an OT victory. Four weeks later, the Dolphins are still fighting to keep their slim postseason hopes alive. Rodgers will presumably do what he can to make history and go into the offseason on a high note, but the Jets sure did not look ready to play spoiler in last week's drubbing by the Bills. Even if Huntley is under center again, I think the Fins will get the win they need to be next in line for a wild-card spot, should Denver falter.

EDITOR'S UPDATE: McDaniel said Friday that Tagovailoa is not expected to start, and that Miami is preparing as if Huntley will be playing.

Why Brooke picked the Vikings: Game 272 is for all the NFC marbles. The winner claims the division and the No. 1 seed in the playoffs, while the loser heads on the road for a wild-card meeting next week. The Lions edged the Vikings in their first meeting in Week 7, and they continue to flex their muscle despite having countless injuries to key players. Both Jared Goff and Sam Darnold are playing the best football of their careers thanks to excellent play-calling by Ben Johnson and Kevin O'Connell, respectively, and having exquisite playmakers around them. These two offenses are moving the ball at will, and it's a beautiful thing to watch. Thus, the final outcome hinges on which defense will make the most plays Sunday night. Goff has been great against man coverage all season long, throwing for 19 TDs with zero interceptions, but will face a Brian Flores-led unit that plays a lot of zone, which Goff has struggled against at times (17 pass TDs, 10 INTs). Despite playing zone coverage on 74.1 percent of opposing dropbacks, Minnesota's defense is no slouch when it does play man either, allowing a 69 percent passer rating (lowest in the NFL) and recording the second-most INTs with eight, per Next Gen Stats. On the flip side, Detroit's defense is allowing the most yards per play (7.4) since Week 14, and it has struggled to get to the quarterback on a regular basis (yes, Aidan Hutchinson still leads the team in sacks despite not playing in the last 11 games). The Lions have relied on the blitz, an area in which Darnold thrives, and must find a way to slow Minnesota's deep passing attack. The Vikings duo of Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison will look to take advantage of a defense that has allowed 389 yards on deep passes (20-plus air yards) since Week 14, per Next Gen Stats.

Detroit desperately needs a week off with all the injuries, and Minnesota is gaining some serious momentum heading into the postseason. I won't be surprised in the least bit to see Detroit win the season finale, but based on injuries and how each defense is playing right now, I'm riding with Minnesota.

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