NFL Week 1 picks: Upset and score predictions, matchup breakdowns for every game

NFL.com editors Jeremy Bergman, Brooke Cersosimo, Gennaro Filice, Bobby Kownack and Dan Parr will predict the winner of every game in the 2026 NFL season, using the unbeatable combo of football analysis and excessive punctuation. Check out their Week 1 NFL picks below.

NOTES

• The lines provided by FanDuel are locked as of 1 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Sept. 9.
• Stream live local and prime-time games on mobile with NFL+.

WEDNESDAY, SEPT. 9

Why Dan picked the Seahawks: I'm expecting a much more competitive contest than what we saw when the Patriots and Seahawks met in February -- a 29-13 shellacking by Seattle -- mainly because I have concerns about the condition of the Hawks' run game and the back end of the defense. As you might recall, those two facets played leading roles in propelling Mike Macdonald's team to the top last season. The SB LX MVP, Kenneth Walker III, departed in the offseason, and Zach Charbonnet is on the PUP list. That means rookie Jadarian Price and third-year pro George Holani, who has made his bones on special teams so far, will be asked to carry the bulk of the rushing load. Are they up to the challenge against a defense that didn't allow a 100-yard rusher until Week 12 last season?

Also, the Seahawks lost safety Coby Bryant and corner Riq Woolen in free agency. They will be without starting safety Ty Okada, while nickelback Nick Emmanwori is questionable to play as he returns from ankle surgery. Any coverage breakdowns as the new secondary gains its footing could be costly against an offense undoubtedly anxious to feature marquee offseason acquisition A.J. Brown.

Ultimately, I don't trust the Patriots' offensive line -- last seen being ripped to shreds by Seattle's fearsome front -- enough to pick the upset, but I do believe in OC Josh McDaniels' promise that the rematch will be different.

THURSDAY, SEPT. 10

Why Bobby picked the 49ers: It's nearly impossible to enter a campaign with as much hype as the Rams. Los Angeles was already enjoying a promising offseason, having added cornerbacks Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson, when general manager Les Snead swung a trade for the single-season sack king, Myles Garrett. It was such a seismic move that three-time Defensive Player of the Year Aaron Donald came out of retirement. Can such exultant vibes carry over to the field in Week 1, which is often a toss-up anyway, after a roughly 16-hour flight to Australia? I'm not sold. There's a lot of injury or load-management situations to consider on both sides -- George Kittle, Nick Bosa, Garrett, Donald not traveling to Australia, etc. -- so that doesn't necessarily move the needle on rosters that are formidable with or without a few of the bigger stars. The Kyle Shanahan-Sean McVay rivalry doesn't give too much away, either. Although Shanahan is 11-8 against McVay, Los Angeles has won four of the past five contests. Where I (and many others sporting large under-eye bags) draw the line is sleep. While the 49ers flew to Melbourne to acclimate a week ahead of the showdown, the Rams are jetting in 24 hours before the game, hoping to keep their bodies on Pacific Time for a whirlwind victory before turning right around and traveling home. Sleep scientists are divided on the vastly different approaches, but San Francisco's feels safer. If Rams players experience post-travel fatigue, there's no time to fix it.

SUNDAY SEPT. 13

Why Dan picked the Bears: I've already planted my flag with the Bears, particularly Caleb Williams and Ben Johnson heading into their follow-up to an exhilarating first year together. I'm not going to back down now that Week 1 is finally here.

My pick is largely tied to belief in Johnson's offense and my continued skepticism about a Bryce Young-led attack being able to score enough to consistently win. Yes, there's been a lot of hand-wringing about whether the Bears truly have upgraded their defense, which allowed the fourth-most yards in the league last season and made taking the ball away its signature -- a risky way of doing business from year to year. I'm not sure the Panthers are prepared to fully take advantage of Chicago's weakness, with questions of their own at offensive tackle.

Now, Carolina spent big on defense this offseason with the signings of LB Devin Lloyd and OLB Jaelan Phillips. If Ejiro Evero's crew comes out guns blazing and never lets Williams settle in, things could easily swing in the home team's favor. Unfortunately, the Panthers will be without the player who was supposed to be Phillips' top running mate off the edge, as Carolina's sacks co-leader from last season, Nic Scourton, is out for the season with an ACL tear.

If the game does turn into a shootout -- a distinct possibility I'm leaning toward -- I like the Bears' chances a bit better.

Why Bobby picked the Bengals: Cincinnati admittedly seems to have a bit of an early-season curse. The Bengals finally broke a three-year Week 1 losing streak in 2025, only for Joe Burrow to suffer a long-term toe injury the following game. However, Burrow has been healthy and striking an optimistic tone in the lead-up to the new season, stating he's trying to "manifest" a return to the Super Bowl and can feel this Bengals squad is different "in my bones." I believe him. Buccaneers versus Bengals figures to be one of the most explosive matchups of the NFL's opening week; Cincinnati has more firepower comparatively, and the offense should be able to hit the ground running. The healthy core of Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Chase Brown is as consistent as it gets, while Tampa Bay needs to shake off last season's collapse and figure out how to best find success in the post-Mike Evans era. With Emeka Egbuka (toe) and Jalen McMillan (knee) both coming back from injuries, there are likely still some growing pains to work through in that process, which could allow for Cincy's rebuilt, Dexter Lawrence-led defense to provide Burrow with just enough of a buffer.

Why Gennaro picked the Lions: Immediately following a disappointing 2025 season that saw Detroit quadruple its loss total from 2024, Dan Campbell gave himself "a freaking F" and stressed that the Lions needed to “get that hunger back.” Earlier this week, Campbell said New Orleans is “a hungry opponent.” So, whose appetite will be satiated on Sunday? The Lions feast at Ford Field, as the league's highest-scoring home team in three of the past four seasons, including the '25 campaign. In fact, Detroit dropped a 50-burger on Chicago in last year's home opener. And while it's reasonable to be concerned about the Lions' offensive line, it's equally reasonable to be underwhelmed by the Saints' D-line. Now, New Orleans' second-year signal-caller, Tyler Shough, might take advantage of Detroit's depleted secondary. Points could be plentiful. I just see the Lions getting a bigger fill. New OC Drew Petzing enjoys a splashy debut with Detroit's high-end collection of playmakers, allowing Lions fans to overzealously tell anyone who'll listen that they're totally over Ben Johnson.

Why Gennaro picked the Texans: David vs. Goliath is always fun, but how about Goliath vs. Goliaths? That's how this wildly enticing opener feels to me, with preseason MVP front-runner Josh Allen taking on the baddest defense on the planet. Granted, Buffalo also boasts the reigning NFL rushing king (James Cook III), a brand new WR1 (DJ Moore) and a highly cohesive offensive line, but I'm still backing the Texans' loaded D. After all, DeMeco Ryans' crew has gotten the best of Allen in each of the past two seasons, holding the quarterback to a career-low 30 percent completions in 2024 and subjecting him to a career-high eight sacks in 2025. Both of those Texans wins came in Houston, where this Sunday's tilt will take place. Oh, and for Buffalo's offensive play-caller, Joe Brady, this happens to be his first real game as a head coach at any level. Learning to manage the dual roles of HC and OC is a challenging task to begin with -- now try performing that juggling act in the face of Will Anderson Jr. and his ferocious friends. As someone who just picked Buffalo to win the Super Bowl, I have the highest possible hopes for these Bills over the long haul, but finding an offensive groove takes time. In Week 1, give me the home team with the hellacious defense.

Why Dan picked the Ravens: While the Colts had the epic collapse, losing seven straight games to close out last season, both teams are going to be eager to remove the bitter taste of a disappointing 2025 from their mouths.

First-year Ravens head coach Jesse Minter has an opportunity to prove his worth right away against an offense that scored in bunches when QB Daniel Jones was healthy last year. Minter needs no reminder of that fact, as the Colts went on the road and dropped 38 on his Chargers in Week 7, the most points allowed by the Bolts all season. Can the defensive guru avenge that loss with his new crew? On paper, he has the weaponry to make it happen. It will certainly help if Jones is at all rusty in his first game back since tearing his Achilles in December.

The biggest question for ball knowers around the league, though, is whether Lamar Jackson has his swagger back after not performing to his usual standard much in an injury-plagued 2025. Will new OC Declan Doyle -- previously Ben Johnson's apprentice -- launch a rejuvenated Jackson into orbit against a long-struggling Colts defense that didn't add much sizzle in the offseason?

Maybe it's wishful thinking, but I'd like to believe the two-time MVP still has enough in the tank to outlast a frisky Indy offense.

Why Bobby picked the Jaguars: There aren't a ton of logical paths to a Cleveland victory. The Browns turned back to Deshaun Watson, who was outplayed by Shedeur Sanders in the preseason but nonetheless won the starting job. Production from the wide receiver room will depend heavily on rookies KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston mastering the learning curve, while running back Quinshon Judkins is coming off a serious, season-ending injury. Oh, and Cleveland's defense is without Myles Garrett for the first time in a decade. It's a lot for newbie head coach Todd Monken and his rookie defensive coordinator, Mike Rutenberg, to juggle. The Jaguars, conversely, are looking to build on a 13-win season. Trevor Lawrence found his stride under coach Liam Coen and now enters Year 2 in the system with a loaded pass-catching group. Jacksonville's defense also boasts playmakers at every level. Considering where the Jaguars see their 2026 season going, they shouldn't run into much trouble hosting the Browns.

Why Jeremy picked the Steelers: One of these teams is comfortable in its own skin. The other has zero identity at the most important position in sports. Mike McCarthy and Kevin Stefanski both enter Sunday's game with something to prove out of the gate, starting their third and second stints as head coaches, respectively. McCarthy benefits from having a familiar friend at the controls of his offense in greybeard Aaron Rodgers. Stefanski, on the other hand, spent the summer playing coy about who his starting QB would be between Tua Tagovailoa and Michael Penix Jr. The latter, who boasts more upside, only returned to practice two weeks ago, leaving Tagovailoa as Stefanki's only true option against Pittsburgh. Specified as only a Week 1 starter, Tua appears to have a short leash in Atlanta, about as long as Penix's recovery ... or 60 minutes on Sunday. Rodgers did not play at all in the preseason, so rust for the tinfoil man is a possibility. But once he warms up, the four-time MVP should have his way with Michael Pittman, DK Metcalf and Pat Freiermuth against a Falcons pass rush neutered by the loss of second-year standouts Jalon Walker (injury) and James Pearce Jr. (suspension).

Why Jeremy picked the Jets: Don't call it a revenge game! At least that's what Robert Saleh and Aaron Glenn are preaching ahead of the former's first game as head coach against his former team. Both Tennessee and New York are keeping the main thing the main thing, which is rebounding from an awful 2025 with a Week 1 victory, something that eluded each side the last two campaigns. In fact, the only first-week win from either organization since 2021 came in Aaron Rodgers' infamous four-snap debut, which, in case you memory-holed it, ended in an overtime win for Saleh's Jets. In short: A Week 1 victory for Tennessee or New York is rare and should be cherished. On the Titans' defensive front, ex-Jets Jermaine Johnson II and John Franklin-Myers will surely be licking their chops to stick it to their old squad, alongside All-World DT Jeffery Simmons. But the Jets are as well equipped on offense as they've been in years -- their offensive line is sturdy and consistent, and their weapons finally go two-deep -- and while Cam Ward's first unit struggled this preseason, Geno Smith and Co. flourished in their limited action. A veteran Gang Green squad has just enough to outlast this green Tennessee team. It won't be pretty, but it's Week 1, when nothing is more stylish than a 1-0 record.

Why Jeremy picked the Chargers: In what figures to be the most lopsided result of Week 1 outside of Duval County, the Chargers are in prime position to get off to an electric start. Our brief glimpses of Justin Herbert in Mike McDaniel's offense this summer were straight gas, and as long as Jake Slaughter holds up at center in his first career start against Walter Nolen, Josh Sweat and Arizona's pass rush, Los Angeles should carry that momentum into the regular season with ease. First-year head coach Mike LaFleur vs. football lifer Jim Harbaugh is not a fair fight, at least not in Week 1. I see a big halftime lead dwindling down the stretch as Jacoby Brissett, Trey McBride, Michael Wilson and Co. play well from behind, as they so often did in 2025. But the result will never be in doubt. Bolts, big.

Why Brooke picked the Raiders: The Raiders drew the long end of the stick by hosting the Dolphins in the opener. There are question marks littered throughout Miami's 2026 roster, specifically on the offensive side of the ball. RB De'Von Achane is in position to carry another heavy load this season, as QB Malik Willis navigates his first campaign as a full-time starter with a WR corps that's royally inexperienced. There's potential there -- looking at you, Caleb Douglas and Chris Bell -- but the success won't happen overnight. Expect the Raiders' defense to force Willis to beat them through the air, which won't be an easy feat with Maxx Crosby back in tow. The Raiders have fewer question marks and more talent across the board. The offense appears better than the unit that scored a league-low 14.2 points per game with Geno Smith in 2025. Kirk Cousins has the reins for now, and his steady quarterbacking will be a warm welcome for Raiders fans near and far. Plus, Ashton Jeanty (ankle) should be good to go on Sunday, and Brock Bowers is primed to do more Brock Bowers things in Year 3.

One final note from the NFL Research team: This is the sixth game in the last 30 seasons in which both head coaches are making their NFL debuts, with the home coach winning three of the previous five such games. That's another aspect that bodes well for Klint Kubiak.

Why Brooke picked the Vikings: How will Kyler Murray look under Kevin O'Connell's tutelage? We're about to find out in what will be a rocking U.S. Bank Stadium full of Vikings fans ready to forget the QB conundrum of 2025. As a Vikings fan myself, I don't feel as if the QB play can get worse than what I witnessed last season -- I sure hope that's true. These NFC North matchups are always competitive, but this particular one feels more about what the Packers lost this offseason than what the Vikings gained. Green Bay begins the 2026 campaign without superstar pass rusher Micah Parsons and RB Josh Jacobs, an instrumental part of Matt LaFleur's offense in recent seasons who's currently on the commissioner’s exempt list. That backfield will now feature MarShawn Lloyd, Kaleb Johnson and Chris Brooks (the only one with more than 100 career rush yards), meaning Brian Flores' defense should expect a heavy dose of Jordan Love's arm. Ultimately, missing two big-time starters will be too much to overcome for the road team.

Why Gennaro picked the Eagles: This matchup would have garnered a whole lot more attention in Week 1 of last season, when it could've served as an instant rematch of the previous campaign's NFC title game. But these two division rivals have gone in different directions since they met on Championship Sunday back in late January of 2025. Philadelphia, of course, went on to win its second Super Bowl that February, and although the Eagles dealt with their fair share of drama this past season, they still became the NFC East's first repeat winners in 21 years. Washington, meanwhile, completely came apart in 2025. Injuries spoiled Jayden Daniels' sophomore effort, while Dan Quinn's defense gave up the most yards in the league. GM Adam Peters aggressively rebuilt the Commanders' D in free agency and the draft, but I'm not convinced that'll be a quick fix. More concerningly, I have serious doubts about Daniels' supporting cast, especially the Laremy Tunsil-less offensive line. That's a recipe for disaster against Vic Fangio's defense. Sure, the Eagles' edge group has question marks, but the front is spearheaded by the devastating DT duo of Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis. Even if Jayden can avoid those 650 pounds of PAIN, Philly has two athletic linebackers (Zack Baun and Jihaad Campbell) to track the fleet-footed quarterback and a pair of first-team All-Pro cover men (Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean) to close his passing lanes. Nick Sirianni improves to 6-0 in Week 1.

Why Brooke picked the Giants: I know the Cowboys have dominated this division rivalry recently, winning 16 of their last 18 meetings going back to 2017, despite New York prevailing in Week 18 last season (Dallas pulled its starters at halftime). But this game feels like a massive opportunity for the Giants to course correct after an offseason full of change. John Harbaugh is captaining the ship. Cam Skattebo is healthy. Malik Nabers could be on the verge of returning after missing a majority of last season. Odell Beckham is back. And No. 5 overall draft pick Arvell Reese joined one of the league's scariest pass rushes (at least on paper). So yeah, these aren't last year's Giants. These aren't last year's Cowboys, either. Dallas' defense, which ranked dead last in scoring D and 30th in yards allowed in 2025, was overhauled in the offseason, with a new coordinator (Christian Parker) and an influx of talent, including a pair of first-round rookies in Caleb Downs and Malachi Lawrence. That unit has plenty to prove. So, too, does an offensive line that was put under some extra pressure this week with the injury to Pro Bowl guard Tyler Smith, which throws fourth-year pro TJ Bass into the fire. You can't get all caught up in the statistical weeds for Week 1 because we don't truly know what the 2026 iterations of these clubs look like. I have to lean into the vibes and my gut. We're talking prime time at MetLife. This just FEELS like Big Blue's Super Bowl.

MONDAY, SEPT. 14

Why Jeremy picked the Broncos: There is so much intrigue going into this Week 1 finale, I'm almost embarrassed by my curiosity with the most overexposed NFL franchise of the past half-decade. But that's what Patrick Mahomes does. His absence magnifies his presence. Could he actually be all the way back from last year's devastating knee injury? Was 2025 the fluke of flukes or a harbinger of something worse to come for Andy Reid and friends? Similarly for Denver, is Bo Nix all healed and ready to take Mahomes' mantle as king of the division? Or was his first year atop the West an illusion of how things could be? Monday night won't provide definitive answers, but it should feature solid if unremarkable play for both sides. Mahomes will knock off the rust, the Broncos will play well but keep Kansas City around with turnovers, and a fourth-quarter score, perhaps by offseason addition Jaylen Waddle, will fittingly be the deciding factor. No shootout in the first wild AFC West matchup of the season, but last year's trends -- outsized Broncos success, Chiefs woes in one-score games -- will make their mark on this year's opener.

Visit ResponsiblePlay.org to learn more about responsible betting.