With NFL training camps about to kick off, now is the time to spin optimistic dreams of what your favorite team can accomplish -- before the pressure cooker of the season brings the consequences of potential failure into sharp relief.
Every team is facing expectations of some kind, but some will be feeling more heat than others. To identify the franchises that will be under the most pressure in 2025, I considered multiple factors, including competitive windows, playoff droughts and -- though this required a good amount of projection on my part -- fan expectations. In the end, this is a vibes-based exercise, but my basic criteria was to search for the teams that would suffer the most dire consequences should they face a worst-case scenario this season, whether that means missing out on one last opportunity to win or setting a roster-building timeline back years.
Even though they are always somehow elbowing their way into contention, the Steelers just have the feel of a .500 team, perpetually competitive without being compelling, patching together just enough success to keep a hard re-set at bay -- only to flame out at the first chance in the playoffs, where they are 0-5 since 2017.
This offseason, though, they might have pushed themselves as close to boom-or-bust territory as they've been under Mike Tomlin, at least in recent memory, with a flurry of moves ultimately hinging on the geriatric quarterbacking ability of one man: Aaron Rodgers. If Rodgers plays like an all-star or even a better-than-replacement-level QB, this outfit could round into a legitimate Super Bowl threat, with DK Metcalf, Jonnu Smith and Kaleb Johnson bringing needed juice to the offense. It's a distinct possibility, especially another year removed from the 2023 Achilles tear that ruined Rodgers' Jets debut. On the other hand, if Rodgers flops in his age-42 season (another distinct possibility), it's hard to see Pittsburgh pulling off another inexplicable winning effort, with Mason Rudolph and rookie Will Howard likely to be the only other QBs standing between the Steelers and ruination. And that's setting aside a defense that has not finished in the top five in points or yards allowed since 2020, and whose star pass rusher (T.J. Watt, who just landed a lucrative extension) and shiny new cornerback (Jalen Ramsey) are both on the wrong side of 30. It seems like they have finally, truly put their backs against the wall.
The reward could be worth it, if it means the Steelers get to experience playoff joy once again. The cost could be suffering through the first honest-to-goodness non-competitive season since Tomlin took over in 2007. (Which could, in turn, prompt a deck-clearing to more fully rejuvenate the roster, but this is not a ranking of brightest silver linings, now, is it?)
There is no doubt about Joe Burrow's capability, especially after he nearly dragged Cincinnati to the playoffs last season despite a 4-8 start and a dead-weight defense. What remains in question is whether the Bengals will be able to make the most of his otherworldly talent. Dropping from 12 wins in 2022 -- tied for the most in franchise history -- to nine in 2023 was not the worst thing in the world, especially with Burrow missing seven games that season. It is not realistic to expect every team with an elite QB to make the postseason every year. But last season turned that playoff-less blip into a stretch. And if Cincy fails to make the cut again in 2025, well, then we'll be talking about a full-blown drought, which would really just be bad news for everyone, especially those of us who want to see more of Burrow's swagger on the highest-stakes stage.
For both of these teams, life is about as good as it gets in the NFL. They have it all: superstar QBs in their primes, mostly rock-solid rosters, head coaches who generally know how to pull everything together. Franchises can go decades without checking off even one of those boxes, but Baltimore and Buffalo are set up to contend more or less indefinitely, or at least for as long as Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen are front-running the MVP race. So in one sense, they are pressure-proof, among the extremely small group of clubs that could reasonably be penciled into the 2030 playoff picture.
Then again, the same thing can be said of Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs -- which is exactly why the Ravens and Bills are listed here. Because Mahomes has become the undisputed ruler of the AFC, and the longer Jackson and Allen go without supplanting him in the postseason, the more realistic it becomes, even if only incrementally, that their tenures will end without a title.
They would not, of course, be the first great players in sports history to have the bad luck of being overshadowed by a dynasty. And that's exactly the kind of desperate rationalization Ravens and Bills fans will have to cling to if neither QB ever conquers the mountain for their team. But as Baltimore and Buffalo both saw, the Chiefs did look pretty human for much of last season (except for, well ... you know), and Jackson and/or Allen can prevail over Mahomes in any given January. Finally pulling it off this postseason would be monumental for the legacy of either player and franchise. (And yes, I realize that overcoming the Bills looms perhaps even larger for Jackson, whose playoff résumé in general could still use some burnishing, but at this point, K.C. is still the biggest bully in the conference.)
The Cowboys are always under pressure. Such is life as a high-profile team with a high-profile owner who regularly tells the media how badly he wants another Lombardi Trophy. Over three straight 12-win seasons from 2021-23, the main burden on Dallas was to make a meaningful playoff run for the first time since 1995, or at least avoid an embarrassing postseason exit. Now, new head coach Brian Schottenheimer is taking on an even stiffer challenge: bringing the 'Boys back to the competitive picture after a 2024 campaign in which they fell into deep irrelevance by November.
OK, so Dak Prescott's return to health from the hamstring injury that limited him to eight appearances last season should do a lot of the heavy lifting there. And Schottenheimer -- getting his first spin in the head seat after 25 NFL seasons as an assistant -- should have an extremely firm grasp on how to best support Prescott, who led the NFL in touchdown passes (36) and hit a new personal high in passer rating (105.9) with Schottenheimer as his offensive coordinator in 2023. But Prescott's absence wasn't the only thing that sank the Cowboys, who were further hindered by a run game that averaged a pitiful 4.0 yards per carry (tied for 27th in the NFL) and a defense that coughed up 5.8 yards per play (tied for 28th). Can Schottenheimer shore up those weaknesses after an offseason in which the most juice was added at the No. 2 receiver spot (which was, it must be said, desperately needed) via a trade for George Pickens? A second straight losing season would be extremely tough to swallow in Dallas, which should want to make the most of its hefty commitments to Prescott and CeeDee Lamb (and, presumably soon, Micah Parsons).
It is not all that surprising that San Francisco stumbled to a six-win season after three straight trips to the NFC title game and a narrow loss in Super Bowl LVIII. It's similarly understandable that Christian McCaffrey missed much of 2024 after leading the league in touches (339), scrimmage yards (2,023) and total TDs (21) in 2023. Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch surely have earned the benefit of the doubt for building a team that tied the Chiefs with the NFL's best winning percentage between 2022 and '23 (.735). But goodwill only goes so far in NFL fandom, and Niners backers likely will start to sweat a little more if they don't jump back into contention in 2025. The recent payouts made to key players (TE George Kittle, LB Fred Warner and, especially, QB Brock Purdy) should up the urgency to make the most of the time this core has together, with McCaffrey (29) and Trent Williams (about to turn 37) moving up in age. A second lackluster effort will just add extra heat to the already-tricky job of building around team cornerstones who have transitioned fully into the "no more discounts" portion of their careers.
Two years ago, the Lions were feel-good upstarts. Last year, they became a juggernaut, only to be tossed aside in the playoffs by an even fresher-faced squad on the rise, the Washington Commanders. Now, they're staring down another inflection point in the franchise life cycle: Will they overcome turnover at a few key positions to prove they belong as NFC heavyweights? Or will they fall closer to the pack and raise questions about their long-term future?
Detroit should be a lock to make the playoffs a third straight time, which would be the organization's longest streak since 1995. Most of the players who helped the Lions finish first in points, second in yards gained and seventh in points allowed last season are back in action, and they're still led by motivational powerhouse Dan Campbell. The changes they are dealing with -- replacing coordinators Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn and keeping the offensive line dominant without Frank Ragnow and Kevin Zeitler -- are the kind that every successful squad has to navigate at some point. If new offensive coordinator John Morton and defensive coordinator Kelvin Sheppard step up seamlessly while a newly healthy Aidan Hutchinson leads a resurgent D and Jared Goff continues to deal, the Lions can entrench themselves atop a conference currently lacking in no-doubt superpowers. Longtime fans who have suffered along with this team over the years surely do not want to think about the alternative possibilities that could unfold should serious cracks begin to form in the facade this season.
How much of last year's dismal 14-loss campaign can be blamed on rotten quarterback play? Brian Daboll and Joe Schoen are surely hoping the answer is a ton, and that the installation of Russell Wilson under center will showcase the soundness of the rest of this roster. The catch is, Wilson's got questions to answer of his own, with his 37th birthday approaching and his last 4,000-yard season (2020) drifting further into the past.
Since capturing Super Bowl XLVI to conclude the 2011 campaign, the Giants have managed just three winning seasons. Daboll should get credit for leading one of those, in 2022, his first year on the job. He also has yet to finish better than third in the NFC East. Breaking through that ceiling in 2025 might be a tall order, with the Eagles dominant, the Commanders ascendant and the Cowboys boasting a top-10 QB. But staying in the mix and at least flirting with a wild-card spot at some point this season would figure to be in the best interests of both coach and GM.
The Dolphins' 2023 season, when they stormed to their second straight playoff appearance behind 11 wins and the NFL's best offense, didn't happen that long ago -- but last year's deflating 8-9 campaign sure did put a lot of distance between Mike McDaniel's squad and that apparent sign of positive franchise growth. Instead of continuing to light the league on fire, McDaniel's once-exciting attack finished with extremely normal rankings of 18th in yards and 22nd in points scored, foundering during Tua Tagovailoa's absence with a concussion.
One year after Tagovailoa signed a hefty extension, it would be ideal for McDaniel to get Miami back onto a feel-good timeline. For that to happen, he'll have to figure out how to put opposing defenses on their heels again -- and Tagovailoa will have to stay on the field all year, which itself feels like a fraught proposition, given that the QB has topped 13 appearances just once in his career. (Adding James Daniels and Jonah Savaiinaea to the O-line, plus the return to health of Austin Jackson, should help on both counts, especially if Patrick Paul proves he can step in for Terron Armstead at left tackle.) If the coach follows through on his promise to get his players to "focus on football," hope could return to South Florida. If not, an uncomfortable offseason could be on the horizon.
The Bears seem to be in better shape than at any time in recent memory, with new head coach Ben Johnson bringing convincing confidence to a job that no one since Lovie Smith has kept for more than four seasons. It is easy to see, in retrospect, why excitement around Caleb Williams last season might have been premature, given the subsequent critical failures in play-calling and pass protection. Between the experience Williams gained, Johnson's proven ability to get the most out of a QB and the substantial improvements made to the offensive line, it will not be shocking if Chicago puts together a winning record for just the second time since 2012, Smith's last year in town.
The flip-side scenario is what earns the Bears a spot here: If Williams can't show tangible signs of positive development in a more favorable environment, or if there are signs Johnson can't fully translate his past success as a coordinator to the top job, the gloomy specter of yet another restart could begin to drift into view. If Williams and Johnson are able to take that possibility completely off the table at any point this season, Chicago fans will get to experience a true sense of peace and security for the first time in generations.
Minnesota's case for inclusion here is borderline, because breaking in a new starting QB whose rookie season was wiped out by a knee injury should lower expectations somewhat. If Kevin O'Connell can confirm without a doubt by the end of the season that J.J. McCarthy will be The Guy moving forward, 2025 will be a victory, even if the Vikings don't return to the playoffs. But I do see enough of a chance for some stealth pressure to build up here that I wanted to issue kind of a PRESSURE ALERT with this bottom slot.
After all, Minnesota did just win 14 games, fueled by the miraculous resurrection of Sam Darnold's career -- meaning there will likely be a smidge less patience for growing pains from McCarthy among the fans than there might have been if he'd hit the field in 2024, when the Vikings were coming off a pedestrian 7-10 2023 season. And if things get really rough, to the point that Vikes brass might have to think about going back to the QB drawing board again, with a well-stocked roster led by Justin Jefferson getting another year older, anxiety levels in the Twin Cities could start to spike.
