Since Adrian Peterson received MVP honors in 2012, the past 12 winners of the Associated Press award have been quarterbacks. QBs have dominated the accolade since its inception in 1957, earning 49 nods in the past 68 years -- and the disparity has been even more slanted toward the position since the turn of the millennium.
But the chances for non-quarterbacks to win the award arguably have improved in recent years. MVP voting changed prior to the 2022 season, with voters ranking their top five choices in order. This tiered voting system has given us deeper and more diverse, nuanced sets of results each year since.
While it's true that the only non-QB runners-up over the past 12 years (Todd Gurley in 2017, J.J. Watt in 2014) came prior to the voting changes, the past three years have seen 10 non-quarterbacks make the top 10: Saquon Barkley, Ja'Marr Chase, Christian McCaffrey, Tyreek Hill (twice), Myles Garrett, Justin Jefferson, Nick Bosa, Micah Parsons, A.J. Brown and Derrick Henry.
Odds are, the 2025 league MVP will be a quarterback. That's reflected in our team-by-team nominees for the award, with 22 of the 32 players listed being signal-callers. They're the overwhelming favorites in a lot of cases. But don't forget about the other positions; I certainly tried not to, even while keeping reality between the crosshairs.
One of these years, we'll even have our first defensive MVP since Lawrence Taylor in 1986, but we might not be quite ready for that again as a football-watching nation.
I think Murray quietly had one of his best seasons last year, and he's reaching the peak of his career just as the Cardinals appear to be rounding into form. They key to building on that might be avoiding those handful of dud games Arizona seems to have offensively with Murray at the helm. Shed those, and he and the team should be in decent shape.
Murray has yet to receive an MVP vote, but he has two enticing targets in TE Trey McBride and WR Marvin Harrison Jr., which could vault him to a career-best season. The Cardinals have their work cut out for them in the thorny NFC West, but there's at least an MVP path for Murray if he can lead them back to prominence.
Some will disagree with this choice, and given that only three running backs have won an MVP award since 2001 (and none since 2012), history is on my skeptics' side. Look at Saquon Barkley last year -- he racked up 2,283 yards from scrimmage, registered just the ninth 2,000-yard rushing season in league annals ... and finished third in the balloting.
It's going to take a Barkley-esque yardage total and 20-plus TDs, I suspect, for Robinson to be a serious candidate. But I like his chances better right now than those of Michael Penix Jr., a talented but unproven quarterback. He's probably capable of a Joe Burrow-like Year 2, but expecting that level of individual success is just a big leap for me at the moment.
The Panthers don't really have a non-QB worth nominating, and even Young feels like a reach. His play down the stretch last winter was exactly what you wanted to see from a player who had been benched following a terrible start to Year 2 -- Young performed with the sort of bravado and accuracy the Panthers yearned for when they traded up to take him No. 1. Is Young at an MVP level yet? No, not close, but the franchise spent much of the offseason looking for ways to beef up his artillery. Carolina should be better, and Young is headed in the right direction, but it would take a pretty significant leap for him to be recognized among the very best of the best.
In spite of Williams' statistically respectable rookie season, onlookers knew that last year was a grind for the No. 1 overall pick. Three quarterbacks selected after him were issued more Offensive Rookie of the Year votes than Williams, who was sacked roughly once every 10 dropbacks in 2024 and took an utter beating.
Ben Johnson is the type of imaginative and demanding coach who could coax brilliance out of Williams. The young signal-caller also has the benefit of a fortified offensive line and more weaponry in Year 2. With only 11 turnovers in 17 games, Williams has shown he can take care of the ball well, and his scrambling skill was a tad overlooked last year, when he was often forced to run for his life. If Johnson can help bring out the best in Williams and the Bears can vault into competition in the tight NFC North, Williams could be regarded as an MVP candidate this season.
Even factoring in the hamstring injury that cost him more than half the 2024 season, Prescott had some of the leanest production of his career in his eight starts, throwing multiple interceptions in half of those. Throw in the fact that the Cowboys have made a coaching change -- and are currently looking up at the division rival Eagles and Commanders -- and it's fair to wonder how realistic a Prescott MVP run might be this season.
But new head man Brian Schottenheimer was Prescott's offensive coordinator in 2023 when the QB finished second in the MVP voting, and the Cowboys have added George Pickens to the WR mix, giving Prescott a fine 1-2 punch with Pickens and CeeDee Lamb. Perhaps the run game and offensive line also bear more fruit, giving Dallas' offense more balance and big-play potential.
I believe Micah Parsons is one of the league's handful of defenders even capable of making a run at league MVP. He did finish a distant eighth in 2022, and it probably would take one of the best statistical seasons by a defender in a few decades to actually win it.
The Lions have some formidable obstacles this season, facing a daunting schedule in a strong division, and now they'll have to try to mimic their recent offensive brilliance without the services of ballyhooed play-caller Ben Johnson, now coaching the Bears.
Johnson clearly deserves some credit for Goff's success in the past three seasons, including Goff's fifth-place finish in last year's MVP voting. That said, the 10th-year pro has established himself as a front-line quarterback. Plus, he's still surrounded by elite offensive talent, and new coordinator John Morton has been mentored by some of the NFL's best offensive minds over the past two-plus decades. This Lions offense won't suddenly go into the tank, and if Goff can thrive without Johnson -- doing so against such a tough slate of teams -- his MVP credentials could be even stronger.
Josh Jacobs was arguably the Packers' most consistent and reliable offensive power source last season, and he can't be ruled out completely as a more-than-capable workhorse back. But Love is the choice here because of his position and his untapped potential.
Through 33 NFL starts, Love has displayed some high-end talent, but his performances have been littered with inconsistency. Love has caught fire around November in each of his two seasons starting, and if he could reach that level for a whole season -- and perhaps make more plays with his legs -- there's absolutely a scenario where he would be squarely in the MVP discussion.
The Packers have provided him with more than enough wide receiver talent, and the offensive line should be in better shape. There is pressure on Love to play up to the contract extension he signed last summer, but it shouldn't shock anyone if he actually does.
We've seen Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers win MVP awards at age 37 or older in the past dozen seasons, so the idea of Stafford snagging the hardware prior to turning 38 (his birthday's the day before Super Bowl LX) isn't some crazy stretch. He was in the running in 2023, the only year Stafford has received MVP votes, finishing eighth in the voting after a white-hot finish to the season.
The problem with Stafford in recent years has been his health, and he's flirted with the idea of retirement before, so the idea of getting through a season healthy is a little harder to imagine. With some good injury luck, though, Stafford could be in line for one of his best statistical campaigns, throwing passes to Puka Nacua and Davante Adams. File Stafford under the "long shot" category, but you can't totally dismiss his MVP chances, even this late in his career.
There might be a time when J.J. McCarthy emerges as an MVP candidate, but thrust him to that level in 2025 at your own risk. If there's ever a case to be made for a wide receiver winning the award, it's likely with a guy as insanely gifted as Jefferson playing with a quarterback who might be something of a game manager this season.
Jefferson is on a record-breaking start to his career, in spite of some inconsistent QB play in Minnesota. He might not have beaten out Patrick Mahomes for MVP honors in 2022, but Jefferson was arguably the best non-quarterback in the league that season -- and he's absolutely capable of achieving that level again. If he can beef up his TD totals a bit and do so in a season where McCarthy might not boast boffo passing totals, it's hard to delegitimize his MVP chances.
The Saints could be starting a rookie QB in Tyler Shough, so there's a pathway for Kamara to be the team's most valuable offensive piece. Kamara once authored a 21-TD season, and he's among the most gifted two-way backs in the league. Not to mention, his new coach, Kellen Moore, just rode Saquon Barkley to a top-three MVP finish and a Super Bowl title.
Even still, expecting a career year out of Kamara in his age-30 season -- and enough Saints wins to make him an MVP candidate -- will be a bridge too far for most reasonable observers.
With the Giants possibly using multiple quarterbacks this season, it opens the door for a rare talent such as Nabers to make a shocking run at the award. Even while missing two games as a rookie, he caught 109 passes for 1,204 yards, with those numbers ranking fifth and seventh, respectively, in the NFL. And that was with Daniel Jones, Drew Lock, Tommy DeVito and Tim Boyle throwing him the ball.
The QB trio of Russell Wilson, Jameis Winston and first-round pick Jaxson Dart certainly looks better on paper, and there's little reason to think that Nabers won't be New York's top target, no matter which QB is under center. Nabers received the second-most targets in the NFL last season at 170, only five behind the Bengals' Ja'Marr Chase. The Giants will get the ball into Nabers' hands any way they can, as he's clearly the best weapon they possess, which could make him the darkest of dark-horse candidates.
Boy, if there ever was an opportunity to veer away from quarterback, it would be on the team with Saquon Barkley. After all, Saquon made an admirable run at the award last season, finishing a very respectable third. But it took Barkley playing a full season (minus a Week 18 rest), something he hasn't done consistently in his career, and the eighth-highest rushing total in NFL history. All to get third place. What does a back have to do these days to win it?
That's why I am backing Hurts, who was a strong runner-up to Patrick Mahomes in 2022 and who's coming off a career-defining Super Bowl victory. Hurts must adjust to his fourth offensive coordinator in as many years, but the offense should be built around his skill set anyway. He's got everything a quarterback needs: two elite receivers, threats at tight end, a terrific back and one of the best offensive lines in the league.
Hurts can play as carefree on the field now as he has in his career, with one ring already on his finger while he seeks the next one.
I want to preface this pick by saying I believe Brock Purdy to be capable of being an MVP candidate again, just as he was in 2023, finishing an honorable fourth for the award in just his second season. Purdy took too much heat for the 49ers' struggles a year ago, and bouncing back this season -- with arguably less talent than before -- should help his candidacy.
But whom did Purdy finish just behind in the '23 MVP race? Yep, CMC. McCaffrey had yet another season cut remarkably short in 2024, as the dynamic back was limited to four games due to health issues. He's also creeping up on age 30 and, counting the postseason, he's already hit the 2,000-touch mark for his career -- markers that typically portend a back's decline.
Yet a healthy McCaffrey is capable of putting up maybe one more 20-TD, 2,000-yards-from-scrimmage type of season in his career, and the 49ers face one of the more manageable-looking schedules in the NFL. This might be his last best shot at stealing an MVP from one of the QBs, even the one on his own team.
I tend to doubt I'll be writing any "Why Sam Darnold will win MVP" columns this summer, although stranger things have happened. After all, Darnold is coming off his best career season, throwing for 4,319 yards and 35 TDs while leading the Vikings to 14 victories. That placed Darnold 10th in the MVP voting, although I suspect he'd have been bumped up a few notches had he played better and Minnesota had beaten Detroit in Week 18.
That said, his candidacy on Seattle feels weaker entering the season. If Darnold were to better his 2024 production and lead the Seahawks to a division title, let's say, he'd be due proper respect. But is that even possible in a new offense that could be more of a ground-based attack? His odds feel long, at best.
The news that Tristan Wirfs likely will miss the start of the season is a major bummer, but it's one of the few things that could derail the Bucs' offense early on. They otherwise return virtually the entire attack from a team that scored 502 points last season -- and I wouldn't be shocked if they surpassed that number in 2025. They scored 24 or more in 13 of the final 14 regular-season games.
Mayfield finished just 11th in MVP voting last season, likely held back by his NFL-worst 16 INTs. But last season was also Mayfield at his most dangerous, establishing career bests in completion percentage (71.4), pass yards (4,500) and TD passes (41). Adding first-round WR Emeka Egbuka to the mix can't hurt.
The Bucs are a dangerous team in a transitional division, and Mayfield absolutely can play at an MVP level in his age-30 season provided the Wirfs loss doesn't cut too deeply.
Daniels emerged as one of the most precocious and productive rookies in recent memory, rivaling the Year 1 output of the likes of Cam Newton, Robert Griffin III, Russell Wilson, Dak Prescott and virtually any other first-year QB you can summon. Dragging the Commanders to the NFC Championship Game after two road playoff victories might even put him on a different plateau entirely.
With that comes some massive -- and perhaps unfair -- expectations in Year 2. There are some positive developments that could help Daniels, with the additions of Deebo Samuel and Laremy Tunsil to an offense that averaged more than 28 points per game a year ago, even if a possible Terry McLaurin holdout looms. It also doesn't hurt that Washington's defense could put Daniels in a slew of shootouts this season, potentially beefing up his numbers.
