Week 15 NFL picks: Rams or 49ers on Thursday night? Will Bills snap Lions' 11-game winning streak?

NFL.com editors Ali Bhanpuri, Tom Blair, Brooke Cersosimo, Gennaro Filice and Dan Parr will predict every game of the 2024 NFL season, using the unbeatable combo of football analysis and excessive punctuation. Check out their Week 15 NFL picks below.

NOTES:

1. The lines provided by DraftKings are current as of 1 p.m. ET on Thursday, Dec. 12 unless otherwise noted below.
2. * -- Pick flipped after publishing.
3. ** -- Final score prediction changed after publishing.

THURSDAY, DEC. 12

Why Ali picked the Rams: Kyle Shanahan has had Sean McVay's number in this long-running rivalry, taking 10 of their 16 meetings, including nine of 10 at one point. But in a "What have you done for me lately?" league, McVay's back-to-back wins against his former boss (by a combined four points) are hard to ignore. As are the numbers Matthew Stafford has been putting up recently. The 36-year-old has 10 passing touchdowns against zero interceptions over his last four starts, after throwing at least one pick in each of his previous six games. He credits his current efficiency to staying as "disciplined" as he can while "still being aggressive" ... and "a little bit of luck." I expect that good fortune to continue Thursday night despite the formidable defense lining up across from him. After all, we're in the midst of Matthew's favorite month. Stafford boasts the best record of any QB in December since 2021 (10-1), ranking top five in pass yards per game (fourth), TD-to-INT ratio (fourth) and passer rating (third), per NFL Research. The Rams are as healthy as they've been all season, with Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp making their case for the league's best WR duo on a weekly basis. And though L.A.'s defense can absolutely be exploited (SEE: Josh Allen's historic six-TD game from last week), especially by a play-caller as familiar and creative as Shanahan, the Rams have more firepower right now, should this game become a shootout. That said, George Kittle is awesome, and picking against him in a must-win game for San Francisco makes me incredibly uncomfortable. But I'm leaning Rams in another close one.

SUNDAY, DEC. 15

Why Brooke picked the Panthers: These teams aren't technically eliminated from playoff contention, but it's looking QUITE grim with each having less than a 1 percent chance to earn a berth. The Cowboys are on a short week after a losing to the Bengals on Monday night, an aspect that actually could play in their favor. Dallas is 9-0 when playing on a short week since 2022, including 3-0 this season. The 'Boys also have found success on the road in 2024 with four of their five wins coming outside of AT&T Stadium. They can thank their defense, which allows 11.4 fewer points per game on the road than at home, though the offense has been better of late due to an improved run game. The Panthers' offense is also trending up. Since the Week 11 bye, Bryce Young has made some strides -- nearly big enough to knock off a trio of teams currently leading their respective divisions. Carolina has even been tied or leading at some point in the fourth quarter during each of its last five games, a span in which Young has six offensive TDs and just two INTs. It's said that there are no moral victories in the NFL, but the Panthers are certainly playing harder than they were earlier in the season and have proven they can compete with any team on any given week. I think this contest breaks Carolina's way in what could be a back-and-forth, one-score game between flawed squads.

Why Gennaro picked the Chiefs: Because the back-to-back defending champs keep finding ways to win. Whimsical to some, obnoxious to others, this team just continues to stack Ws. Through 14 weeks, the Chiefs' point differential of +56 ranks 11th in the league. Shoot, that underwhelming figure ranks third in the AFC West. So, how did Kansas City already clinch its ninth straight division title? Well, Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes and Co. are a perfect 10-0 in one-score contests. In the first three weeks of the season, K.C. beat Baltimore by a toe, Cincinnati by a last-second, 51-yard field goal and Atlanta by a fourth-and-inches stuff. And frankly, that's relatively conventional stuff compared to what this team has pulled off lately. In the Chiefs' last four wins, they have prevailed by:

• Blocking a 35-yard field goal attempt on the final play of the game.
• Converting a 33-yard scramble from Mahomes into a 31-yard game-winning field goal via Harrison Butker replacement Spencer Shrader.
• Recovering a comically botched snap.
• Doinking in a 31-yard field goal, with the kick coming off the leg of Harrison Butker/Spencer Shrader replacement Matthew Wright.

I know what you're thinking: Lady Luck MUST have other suitors! And given Kansas City's ongoing problem at left tackle, Myles Garrett could be the single most terrifying opponent on the entire schedule. But picking against the Chiefs right now feels like questioning divine authority.

Why Ali picked the Dolphins: Neither of these teams runs the ball particularly efficiently, though the Dolphins really struggle in this department, ranking 30th in EPA per carry since Tua Tagovailoa returned to the starting lineup in Week 8. While I don't expect Miami to abandon its ground game completely, I do anticipate seeing the team supplement it with a healthy dose of quick, horizontal throws that challenge Houston -- playing without suspended star linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair -- to cover sideline to sideline and make open-field tackles. The Texans, to their credit, have one of the league's stickier coverage units. But the defense as a whole has struggled to wrap up this season, owning the second-highest missed tackle rate, per Next Gen Stats. If Mike McDaniel can resist the urge to get too cute with his calls and motions (sometimes simple force is more effective than misdirection), and Tua can hit his speedy playmakers in stride, the Dolphins should be able to move the ball consistently -- regardless of how they tote the rock (though some chunk runs wouldn't hurt). Defensively, the Fins must put the heat on C.J. Stroud and his penalty-happy offensive line, forcing the Texans to live in third-and-long -- as Houston seemingly has all year. Miami has enough ballhawks on the back end to make the Texans pay if they're constantly playing from behind the sticks. The last time I Solo YOLO'd the Dolphins, they embarrassed themselves (and me) in Green Bay. This time, in a climate-controlled environment, with a postseason berth still technically possible, the Fins (and I) get the last laugh.

Why Tom picked the Jets: These two teams have a habit of losing close games. (They've each suffered their share of blowouts, too, but I have a feeling that fact is less relevant to this blurb.) The Jags and Jets share identical 2-7 records in one-score games, with some additional quirks revealed by further futzing with the criteria. All nine of Jacksonville's one-score contests were actually decided by five points or less (the most such games in the NFL), and all of New York's one-score losses were settled by six points or less. Of course, they can't both lose by less than a touchdown -- someone (probably) has to come out on top in this one. And even though Jacksonville just notched one of its rare one-score wins on Sunday (a 10-6 squeaker over Tennessee), I'm going to go with Aaron Rodgers. It's hard to think of many scenarios in December of 2024 in which Rodgers' presence would be a deciding factor for me, but this is one of them. He heated up against the Dolphins last week, and I have more faith in his ability to make hay against the Jags' 31st-ranked pass defense than I do in Mac Jones' ability to keep up on the other side.

Why Tom picked the Commanders: Three weeks ago, Washington looked like a slam-dunk pick against a spiraling opponent starting a backup QB -- then the Cowboys pulled off a stunning 34-26 upset. That inexplicable loss was jam-packed with oddities, including an inordinate number of three-and-outs for the Commanders (four, their second-most in a game this season), a missed point-after try and an onside kick returned by Dallas for a touchdown. It feels like another rush of flukes would need to unfold for Washington to drop a similar showdown against the Saints and whoever ends up under center in place of Derek Carr. The superstitious part of me is loath to type this, but that seems unlikely, especially with the only proven weapon still standing in New Orleans' offense (Alvin Kamara) missing practice Wednesday with an illness. Even if Kamara suits up and finds room to run against the Commanders' 27th-ranked rushing defense, Jayden Daniels and Co. figure to find more room to do everything against New Orleans, which is allowing 246.3 passing yards per game (fifth-most in the NFL) and 5.7 rushing yards per game to QBs (tied for fourth-most).

Why Dan picked the Ravens: I could drop a bunch of fancy metrics to explain my prediction here, but is that really necessary? The Giants, losers of eight games in a row, average a league-low 14.9 points per game and now are asked to compete against the Lamar Jackson-led Ravens, who, despite losing two of their last three, still rank third in the league with 29.5 points per game. For those of you keeping score at home, Baltimore is scoring almost twice as many points as the Giants put up on a weekly basis. I'm also taking into account that the Ravens had a chance to get right during a long-awaited bye in Week 14. They are 13-3 under John Harbaugh coming off a regular-season bye, and Jackson is 11-0 in his career as a starter in Week 15 or later, which is the best record of any QB in Week 15 or later in the last 40 seasons. I enjoy the Tommy DeVito career arc as much as anyone, but if New York manages to stay within striking distance on Sunday, something has gone terribly wrong for the Ravens.

Why Brooke picked the Bengals: It's a shame that we won't likely see this Bengals offense in the postseason. Joe Burrow leads the league in completions, pass yards and pass TDs, while Ja'Marr Chase is inching his way toward the receiving triple crown. Fresh off a prime-time win in Dallas, Burrow is 9-3 in his career in December and January, averaging 314.1 pass yards per game and 2.5 pass TDs per game in those months as a starter (both most in the NFL among QBs with at least 10 such starts since 1970, per NFL Research). For some context in terms of Sunday's game, Tennessee's Will Levis, despite playing better of late, has had one game in his career in which he threw for more yards than Burrow's late-season average (Week 14 of 2023). The Bengals have scored 27 points or more in each of their last five contests, while the Titans have scored 20 points or fewer in every game but one since their Week 5 bye. Defensively, Tennessee has done some good things. Dennard Wilson's unit has allowed the second-fewest yards per game this season but has struggled to keep opponents out of the end zone, giving up 26.3 points per contest, the sixth-most league-wide. Then there's Trey Hendrickson and a slowly improving Bengals defense, which is looking to feast on a vulnerable offensive line that has allowed Levis to be sacked 24 times in his last five games (second-most since Week 10). Almost everything about this game favors Cincy.

Why Gennaro picked the Cardinals: Averaging 9.1 yards per carry, Patriots rookie Drake Maye is currently dusting every quarterback since the turn of the millennium, Michael Vick included. But I'm actually here to talk about Kyler Murray's legs -- because I think it's time he starts using them again.

In the first seven weeks of the season, Murray averaged 46.4 rushing yards per game. Over the last six contests, that figure has plummeted to 19.8 ypg. And during Arizona's current three-game losing streak -- which has seen the Cardinals drop from first to third in the NFC West -- the quarterback has struggled as a traditional passer, throwing five interceptions to nearly triple his season-long tally (nine). Kyler took this latest defeat particularly hard.

"I feel like I let the team down today," Murray said after the loss to Seattle, later adding: "We didn't make enough plays. They made more plays than us. Put that on me. We will be better next week."

Next week is upon us, and I get the sense Kyler will be looking to make plays. Now, to be clear, I'm not asking him to spearhead Arizona's ground game -- that's James Conner's job, and he does it well. But while the Cardinals' RB1 is a punishing hammer, Murray is a dazzling cheat code of a runner, possessing the quickness and acceleration to make world-class athletes look like they're running in quicksand. (Remember the 50-yard touchdown at San Francisco?) In New England's one-point loss to Indianapolis last time out, the Patriots struggled with Anthony Richardson's legs. Kyler's clearly a different kind of player than AR, but I think he can bedevil Jerod Mayo's defense in a similar fashion.

Why Dan picked the Broncos: Can we trust the Denver Broncos? I was leaning more strongly toward answering that question in the affirmative until the pass defense fell on its face against the Browns prior to the Week 14 bye. If we see a repeat, the Colts are fully capable of pulling off the upset, but I'm expecting DC Vance Joseph to have a better plan coming out of the bye, one that probably involves speeding up Anthony Richardson's clock to try to unsettle a player who still has made just 13 career starts. Richardson has a 41.3 percent completion rate and 65.4 passer rating against the blitz in 2024 (both last in NFL among players with at least 150 pass attempts, per Next Gen Stats). Not great. Unfortunately for the Colts, the Broncos have the second-highest blitz rate in the NFL. Countering with a strong ground game could take a bite out of the pass rush, but Denver has been one of the best teams against the run. The Broncos have not lost to a team that is currently below .500 this season (7-0), and I'd be surprised to see them drop this game at home with so much on the line.

Why Brooke picked the Bills: Who doesn't love an early Christmas present? This one comes in the form of a potential Super Bowl preview that features the league's top two scoring offenses. What's interesting is these two units are quite different. Buffalo is led by its almighty quarterback, Josh Allen, who has done essentially everything and then some (SEE: his six-TD performance in the Week 14 loss) to help Buffalo clinch a postseason berth for the sixth straight year. The Bills are second in scoring (30.5 points per game) and rush TDs (24), as well as fifth in red-zone TD percentage (68.5) -- and they've found that success by taking care of the football (only seven giveaways this season) and protecting Allen (13 sacks taken). The Lions are led by a ferocious rushing duo and complementary passing attack that have combined to average nearly 400 yards per game in 2024. Sunday is shaping up to be a shootout, with both defenses experiencing recent setbacks. Buffalo just allowed a season-high 44 points and more than 450 yards to the Rams, while Detroit's unit is battered with injuries, notably along the defensive line. This is such a tough call, and I could talk myself in circles, so I'm going to defer to this note from NFL Research: Over the last 10 NFL seasons, there have been just four games between teams with 10-plus wins in Week 15 or earlier (we get TWO this weekend). Each of those games was decided by three or fewer points, and the road team won in all such matchups.

Why Ali picked the Chargers: Tampa has a nice little streak going since its Week 11 bye, taking down three also-rans en route to reclaiming the top spot in the NFC South. But the Bucs haven't only beat up on struggling clubs this year. They also have wins against Detroit, Philadelphia and Washington, along with one-score losses to Kansas City, San Francisco and Atlanta (twice). In other words, they've been in basically every game. The Chargers, on the other hand, have built their 8-5 mark almost exclusively on the backs of bad teams, with only one win thus far against a squad currently sporting a record above .500. But, like Tampa, the Bolts have been in nearly every game; four of their losses have come by seven points or fewer. So what should we expect from two teams that annoyingly hang around for 60 minutes? I'd say a fairly tight contest. If I knew Bucky Irving (back) would be available for all four quarters, I'd be siding with Todd Bowles' crew in this one; the rookie is that integral to Tampa's offensive success. To be honest, I still think the Bucs could pull this one out. It's not like the Chargers are immune to injuries -- J.K. Dobbins remains sidelined indefinitely, Justin Herbert is nursing a sprained ankle and Ladd McConkey is at risk of missing his second consecutive game. My heart says Tampa, but my head says to go with the more consistent defense at home in a game that figures to be close. I've gone with my heart too many times over the last two weeks, and I'm still picking up the pieces.

Why Gennaro picked the Eagles: Will the squeaky wheel get the grease in Philadelphia? The Eagles are riding a nine-game win streak, and yet, the biggest story in Philly is tumult in the locker room. A.J. Brown was clearly frustrated with the Eagles' passing game during and after this past Sunday's narrow win over the Panthers. Then on Monday, vested vet Brandon Graham openly discussed a rift between Brown and QB Jalen Hurts on his weekly radio show. Graham abruptly backtracked on his comments -- "I made a mistake and I assumed that it was something that it wasn't" -- but you can't put that toothpaste back in the tube. The ensuing media circus has produced damage-control attempts from all parties involved. Head coach Nick Sirianni downplayed the drama on Tuesday, with Hurts and Brown following suit Wednesday. But what does all this mean for Sunday?

To me, this entire ordeal underscores a champagne problem with the Eagles' roster: too much firepower. Meanwhile, the Steelers likely will play this game without their one true mismatch weapon in George Pickens (hamstring). So, while this Keystone State showdown features two of the league's best defenses, Philadelphia holds a distinct advantage over Pittsburgh on the offensive front. Eagles OC Kellen Moore stressed the importance of feeding Brown earlier this week. And given that the cornerback position has been the soft spot on this Steelers defense in 2024, it's not hard to imagine the greased-up squeaky wheel rolling over the visiting team.

Did I mention that the Steelers haven't won in Philadelphia since 1965, losing their past 10 ventures across the state?

Why Dan picked the Packers: There is certainly a case to be made for picking the Seahawks to win on Sunday night. They are hot, winning four straight since their Week 10 bye, and the home team has won each of the last 10 matchups between these two squads, including the playoffs. I'm going to need to see the Packers lose to a non-elite team before I stop believing in them, though. All four of Green Bay's losses in 2024 have come against teams that already have 11 or more wins. Seattle has eight, thanks in part to a defense that has flipped the script, going from allowing 29.7 points per game in the six games prior to the bye to 15.5 PPG in the four games since the bye. Thing is, the Seahawks have played just two games against teams currently ranked in the top 10 in scoring offense, and they allowed 36.5 PPG and 417 yards per game in those contests. I like what I'm seeing from Mike Macdonald's defense of late, but not enough to pick against Jordan Love, who has averaged 10.3 yards per attempt since a Week 10 bye (best in the NFL, min. 50 attempts).

MONDAY, DEC. 16

Why Gennaro picked the Vikings: In a league built on parity, margins are razor thin. That's where coaching comes into play -- and that's where Minnesota holds an enormous advantage in this matchup. I don't intend to disparage Chicago's coaching staff, but rather to remind everyone that this group's been living in a blender following the in-season firings of offensive coordinator Shane Waldron and then head coach/defensive play-caller Matt Eberflus.

Just over month ago, Thomas Brown was a passing game coordinator in his first season with the Bears. Now, he's juggling head-coaching duties with offensive play-calling at age 38. Defensive coordinator Eric Washington has 17 years of NFL experience as an assistant, but in the wake of Eberflus' firing, he's calling plays for the first time since his Carolina days last decade, back when Luke Kuechly was patrolling the field for the Panthers.

Minnesota, on the other hand, boasts one of the most revered coaching combos in the game today. Kevin O'Connell won 13 games in his head-coaching debut in 2022, kept the 2023 Vikings competitive despite starting four different quarterbacks and now finds himself squarely in the 2024 Coach of the Year discussion. Brian Flores, who spent three seasons as the head man in Miami, has become one of the league's premier defensive coordinators, routinely scrambling opposing quarterbacks via organized chaos.

Add in the fact that Chicago's makeshift staff has to go into one of the NFL's most raucous road venues -- in prime-time, with a rookie quarterback -- and I can't see the Bears' seven-game losing streak ending on Monday night.

Why Tom picked the Falcons: This lays out so nicely as a potential get-right game for Kirk Cousins and Atlanta that it makes me suspicious. Frankly, I was tempted by a vision of the Raiders -- playing loose and comfy at home, leaning on Maxx Crosby and Brock Bowers -- to shock the Falcons, who might be a tad desperate to snap their four-game losing streak and preserve their playoff hopes. In a way, it might actually be the safer move to bank on more subpar QB play from Cousins, who's registered a combined passer rating of 62.0 with eight picks over the past four weeks. The thing is, interceptions have been such a big part of his troubles, spoiling an otherwise-decent day against the Vikings in Week 14 (344 yards, 9.3 per throw). And I'm not sure the Raiders -- who are tied for 31st in the NFL in takeaways with eight, ranking far below each of the Falcons' last four opponents, who sit in the top half of the league -- will be able to snare enough balls to keep Atlanta from outpacing Las Vegas' 27th-ranked scoring offense, especially if Aidan O'Connell's bone bruise keeps him from playing.

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